Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Oakland Raiders (12-3) will try to sweep the Denver Broncos (8-7) and win the AFC West title Sunday as small road underdogs due to the absence of starting quarterback Derek Carr. The Raiders would figure to be small favorites if they had Carr, who suffered a broken leg last week in a 33-25 win over the Indianapolis Colts as 3.5-point home chalk. It was their eighth victory in nine games overall.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 42 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 23.4-20.3 Broncos (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Raiders can cover the spread

Oakland is 7-2 against the spread in its last nine games, with six of the eight wins straight up and decided by six points or more. The Raiders will be hard-pressed to win without Carr, but the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos have nothing to play for in this spot. They have no shot at making the playoff field this year after getting blown out 33-10 by the Kansas City Chiefs in last week's Sunday night game.

In addition, Kansas City would win the AFC West with a loss by Oakland and a road win over the San Diego Chargers, giving the Raiders plenty of motivation at Denver.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos are still playing for pride and hope to spoil Oakland's shot at the division title. They have won eight of the past 10 meetings with the Raiders straight up, going 7-3 against the spread in those games.

The drop-off from Carr to backup signal-caller Matt McGloin is also severe, so Denver has a huge advantage defensively. McGloin has not played extensively since relieving Carr, who suffered a hand injury, in last year's regular-season opener, which Oakland lost 33-13 to the Cincinnati Bengals as three-point home underdogs.

Smart pick

Defense will be the difference in this game, as the Raiders likely would have struggled offensively against the Broncos even with Carr in the lineup. With McGloin under center, Oakland has little chance to win this game despite what the oddsmakers at online sports betting sites think in setting the line at around a field goal.

Denver has gone 5-1 SU in its last six games after consecutive losses and will improve upon that trend with a solid home victory here.

Betting trends

The Raiders are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against the Broncos.

The total has gone under in five of the Broncos' last six games in January.

The Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against their division.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.