Week 16 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Matchups to Exploit and Avoid
The NFL has pulled out all the stops for a Week 16 holiday slate—providing a challenge befitting a champion as fantasy football owners play for titles.
The schedule has, among other things, divisional showdowns and encounters between playoff hopefuls, not to mention games on Saturday and Sunday before a Monday finale.
In order to make the best of a tricky situation around the holidays, owners need to hit the matchups homework harder than usual. This isn't the easiest task around while traveling for the holidays and celebrating, so here is a helpful guide that showcases matchup comparisons and some situations to exploit and avoid.
Quarterback
| Aaron Rodgers (vs. MIN) vs. Matt Ryan (at CAR) | Matt Ryan |
| Drew Brees (vs. TB) vs. Kirk Cousins (at CHI) | Drew Brees |
| Andrew Luck (at OAK) vs. Marcus Mariota (at JAC) | Marcus Mariota |
| Dak Prescott (vs. DET) vs. Matthew Stafford (at DAL) | Matthew Stafford |
| Derek Carr (vs. IND) vs. Andy Dalton (at HOU) | Derek Carr |
Matchup to Exploit: Matt Ryan, ATL (at CAR)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is in for another huge day against the Carolina Panthers.
Back in Week 4, Ryan casually threw for 503 yards and four touchdowns against the Panthers, good for 35 points. Those Panthers haven't changed much since, with the tally standing at six opposing quarterbacks reaching 16 or more points against the unit.
On the road, look for Ryan to have another big day as he tries to keep his Falcons in playoff contention. Carolina will look to play the spoiler, but so have most of his recent opponents—and he's hit on 17 or more points in three of his last four outings.
Maybe Ryan doesn't hit 35, but the upside paired with a secure floor makes him a great option.
Matchup to Avoid: Russell Wilson, SEA (vs. ARI)
This one hurts, but owners don't want to lean on Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson in Week 16.
Many who have recently have burns to show for it. Over his past four games, Wilson has scored 10, 15, four and 20 points. That's too inconsistent when it matters most.
On Saturday, Wilson has to deal with the Arizona Cardinals, who are allowing the eighth-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks on average.
While Arizona has looked unpredictable, Wilson only managed nine points against the unit in Week 7. At home, the Seahawks will be content to keep the ball on the ground and grind out a win.
Running Back
| David Johnson (at SEA) vs. Ezekiel Elliott (vs. DET) | Ezekiel Elliott |
| DeMarco Murray (at JAC) vs. Le'Veon Bell (vs. BAL) | DeMarco Murray |
| LeSean McCoy (vs. MIA) vs. LeGarrette Blount (vs. NYJ) | LeSean McCoy |
| Devonta Freeman (at CAR) vs. Latavius Murray (vs. IND) | Devonta Freeman |
| Jordan Howard (vs. WAS) vs. Carlos Hyde (at LA) | Jordan Howard |
Matchup to Exploit: Jordan Howard, CHI (vs. WAS)
Owners have come to quickly fall in love with Chicago Bears rookie Jordan Howard.
Howard has assumed the starting role for the Bears and, over his last four outings, has 12, 29, 10 and 17 points. This positive train should keep rolling, thanks to a game against the Washington Redskins, who are allowing the fourth-most points to opposing running backs on average.
The above doesn't do this matchup justice. Washington has allowed three of the last four opposing backfields it's faced to score 24 or more points.
A true workhorse who gets it done whether on the ground or through the air, Howard has another big day in sight.
Matchup to Avoid: Mark Ingram, NO (vs. TB)
Mired in a committee approach and in a rough matchup, owners would be wise to ignore Mark Ingram of the New Orleans Saints.
Ingram hasn't hit double digits since Week 12 and is heading into a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have held two entire opposing backfields to single-digit production two times over their last four appearances.
One of those appearances came against the Saints in Week 14. There, Ingram mustered one point. He's still coughing up carries to Tim Hightower, too, hence Hightower's two touchdowns in Week 15.
With his chances in the red zone dwindling and another bad matchup on deck, Ingram needs to take a seat in all leagues.
Wide Receiver
| Antonio Brown (vs. BAL) vs. Mike Evans (at NO) | Mike Evans |
| Tyrell Williams (at CLE) vs. Jordy Nelson (vs. MIN) | Tyrell Williams |
| T.Y. Hilton (at OAK) vs. Davante Adams (vs. MIN) | T.Y. Hilton |
| Amari Cooper (vs. IND) vs. Emmanuel Sanders (at KC) | Amari Cooper |
| A.J. Green (at HOU) vs. Doug Baldwin (vs. ARI) | A.J. Green |
Matchup to Exploit: Allen Robinson, JAC (vs. TEN)
There is always a risk with Jacksonville Jaguars wideout Allen Robinson, but owners have to hope a shake-up in the coaching staff will help his production.
Robinson has an outstanding matchup in Week 16 against the Tennessee Titans, who are coughing up the second-most points to opposing wideouts on average. Their defense has allowed 21 or more points to opposing sets of wideouts five games in a row.
Granted, Robinson only scored seven points on the Titans back in Week 8. It came by way of six catches for 70 yards, though, so it is clear the Jaguars will soak Robinson with targets against a team that can't handle him.
Robinson has been a dud of late, thanks to a string of bad matchups. The cloud over him will clear in Week 16, though, with owners emerging as the biggest winners.
Matchup to Avoid: Dez Bryant, DAL (vs. DET)
Dallas Cowboys wideout Dez Bryant is simply too erratic while stuck in a run-first offense that is led by rookie quarterback Dak Prescott.
Case in point—in his past two games, Bryant has scored minus-one and eight points.
On Monday, Bryant has to line up against a Detroit Lions defense allowing the 12th-fewest points to wideouts on average. While the contest comes at home, the Cowboys will look to ride Ezekiel Elliott in an effort to keep Matthew Stafford off the field.
Had Bryant produced with any sort of consistency this year, he'd be a much easier play in a tough situation.
Tight End
| Travis Kelce (vs. DEN) vs. Greg Olsen (vs. ATL) | Travis Kelce |
| Delanie Walker (at JAC) vs. Jimmy Graham (vs. ARI) | Delanie Walker |
| Kyle Rudolph (at GB) vs. Martellus Bennett (vs. NYJ) | Kyle Rudolph |
| Cameron Brate (at NO) vs. Coby Fleener (vs. TB) | Cameron Brate |
| Hunter Henry (at CLE) vs. Jason Witten (vs. DET) | Hunter Henry |
Matchup to Exploit: Hunter Henry, SD (at CLE)
Hunter Henry has surpassed Antonio Gates as the tight end to know with the San Diego Chargers.
Henry has a touchdown in four of his last five games. He's hit on a minimum of seven points in those games with a score, giving him a nice floor.
Normally, a touchdown-dependent player wouldn't be the safest choice, but this week, Henry is against the Cleveland Browns, who are allowing the most points to opposing tight ends on average.
Henry figures to pounce all over a unit that has managed to concede three touchdowns to tight ends over its past two games.
Matchup to Avoid: Dennis Pitta, BAL (at PIT)
A gritty, run-first rivalry game between the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers isn't the place to trot out passing targets other than Antonio Brown.
This means Dennis Pitta owners need to look elsewhere. The Ravens capriciously involve the tight end, who has outings of 19, one and one points over his past three games.
The Steelers have held all but two sets of opposing tight ends encountered this season to single-digit production. To top it off, they kept Pitta in check back in Week 9, holding him to just two catches for 14 yards and one point.
Though he often seems like a breakout candidate, Pitta isn't worth the gamble with so much at stake.
All scoring info and statistics courtesy of ESPN.com standard leagues, as are points-against info and ownership stats.
Follow Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) on Twitter.
.jpg?w=480)
.jpg?w=480 "NFL Draft Football")
.jpg?w=600 "Lemon 'Shocked' by Eagles")