New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New England Patriots reign in the recent rivalry with the New York Jets, winning nine of the last 11 meetings outright. But New York, in winning twice and keeping every other game close, is 6-0-1 against the spread over the last seven meetings. In a game that involves the largest point spread of this NFL season so far, the Jets visit the Patriots on Saturday afternoon.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as 16.5-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 38.0-6.4 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Jets can cover the spread

New York is trying to bounce back from last week's 34-13 loss to the Miami Dolphins. The Jets trailed the Dolphins by only a field goal into the third quarter but had a blocked punt returned for a touchdown and then allowed two more scores in the next four minutes and never recovered.

On the day, New York actually beat Miami in first downs 20-13, outrushed the Dolphins 116-67 and held a 33-27 advantage in time of possession. But on top of that blocked punt, numerous other mistakes and missed chances probably cost the Jets another 20 points or so.

New York has outgained four of its last six opponents and outrushed five of its last eight foes. But the worst turnover ratio in the league, minus-19, has taken a heavy toll.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England owns a five-game winning streak, going 4-1 ATS in the process, after downing the Denver Broncos last week 16-3. That game was tied at 3-3 midway through the first quarter, but the Patriots defense blanked the Broncos from there, securing the victory that gave New England an eighth straight AFC East title and the cover as a three-point road favorite.

The Patriots, with help from 95 yards on 18 carries by running back Dion Lewis, outrushed Denver 136-58, held a 34-26 time-of-possession advantage and won the turnover battle 3-0. New England has now outgained and outrushed each of its last five opponents.

Big picture: At 12-2, the Patriots lead Oakland by one game in the battle for the top seed in the upcoming AFC playoffs and sit as the clear favorites on the odds to win the AFC title.

Smart pick

The Jets nearly upset New England a month ago, and they did upset the Patriots in Week 16 last season. But that's not going to happen this week. New York is showing signs of giving up under coach Todd Bowles, and New England still needs this game for playoff seeding. Also, double-digit favorites are 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS this NFL season. Give the points with the Patriots at online sports betting sites.

Betting trends

The Jets are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Patriots.

The total has gone over in 11 of the Jets' last 14 games against the Patriots.

The Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as favorites.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.