NFL Picks Week 16: Expert Predictions, Odds Guide and Over-Under Lines

There are but two weeks left in the 2016 regular season, which means it's time for the last few dogged battles for the still-remaining playoff spots. 

Four teams—the New England Patriots, Oakland Raiders, Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks—have already clinched playoff berths, two in each conference.

That leaves eight playoff spots—and six division titles—up for grabs as the season winds to a close, which means plenty of meaningful games will play out over the holiday weekend.

Week 16 has nearly every team working on a short week. There's the regular Thursday night affair between the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles, and then 12 games taking place on Saturday. Teams will be battling fatigue, cold winter weather and the crushing weight of expectations over the holidays. The action should be fierce.

Here are the expert picks, odds and over-under lines for Week 16. 

Date	Matchup	Over-Under	Stephen White, SB Nation	Mike Golic, ESPN	Dave Richard, CBS Sports	John Halpin, Fox Sports	FiveThirtyEight Win Probabilities
Thursday, Dec. 22	New York Giants (-2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles	41	Eagles	Giants	Giants	Eagles	Giants 55%
Saturday, Dec. 24	Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)	43	Packers	Packers	Packers	Packers	Packers 70%
Saturday, Dec. 24	Washington Redskins (-3) at Chicago Bears	47	Redskins	Redskins	Bears	Redskins	Redskins 62%
Saturday, Dec. 24	Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers	52	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Panthers 56%
Saturday, Dec. 24	San Diego Chargers (-6) at Cleveland Browns	43.5	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers 69%
Saturday, Dec. 24	New York Jets at New England Patriots (-16.5)	43.5	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots 90%
Saturday, Dec. 24	Tennessee Titans (-4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars	43.5	Jaguars	Titans	Titans	Titans	Titans 65%
Saturday, Dec. 24	Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.5)	41.5	Bills	Bills	Bills	Bills	Bills 59%
Saturday, Dec. 24	Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders (-3.5)	53	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders 67%
Saturday, Dec. 24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3)	52.5	Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Saints	Saints	Saints 55%
Saturday, Dec. 24	Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)	43	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks 75%
Saturday, Dec. 24	San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)	40	Rams	49ers	49ers	Rams	Rams 74%
Saturday, Dec. 24	Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-1)	41	Texans	Bengals	Texans	Texans	Texans 57%
Sunday, Dec. 25	Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5)	44.5	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers 73%
Sunday, Dec. 25	Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)	37.5	Chiefs	Chiefs	Broncos	Chiefs	Chiefs 70%
Monday, Dec. 26	Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7)	44.5	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys 70%

The Green Bay Packers are surging as the season comes to a close, winners of four straight and the current occupants of the NFC's sixth seed. Aaron Rodgers and company are in good position to score a fifth straight win over the Minnesota Vikings and further burnish their playoff credentials, perhaps even getting one step closer to taking the previously-out-of-reach NFC North title.

Ty Montgomery's effortless transition from wide receiver to running back has been key to the Packers' success in recent weeks. Against the Chicago Bears in Week 15, Montgomery had his breakout moment, rushing for 162 yards and two touchdowns on just 16 carries. The Packers have had little in the way of a running game for much of the season; Montgomery appears to have solved that problem.

Montgomery's move from the flanks to the backfield hasn't upset the Packers passing attack so far, and shouldn't going forward.

Montgomery was never much of a threat as a wideout—his only notable receiving game without playing as primary ball-carrier was a 10-catch effort against the Cowboys on Oct. 16—and might be more useful catching passes out of the backfield. Plus, now that he's established himself as a bona fide threat, Rodgers can now utilize more play action and expect defenses to be more honest playing both the run and the pass.

With the Packers offense firing on all cylinders, the Vikings can't be expected to keep up, especially as the road side. The Vikings have topped 20 points just once in their last four games (1-3 in that span) and are coming off a 34-6 loss to the Indianapolis Colts.

Adrian Peterson did get a handful of carries in that game—his first action in nearly three months—but is reportedly unsure whether he will suit up against Green Bay, per the Star Tribune's Matt Vensel:

Without a healthy Peterson to energize the offense, the Vikings are going to have a tough time keeping up with the Packers. Sure, the vaunted defense has been excellent for most of the season, but Rodgers is in MVP form with 10 touchdown passes and zero picks in his last five games, and Montgomery is looking like the real deal as a tailback. The Packers should win this game by more than a touchdown. 

The NFC North battle has only recently become a noteworthy point of discussion. On the other hand, the AFC South has been a dogfight for weeks now and will almost assuredly remain so for the final two weeks of the season.

The Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans are knotted up at 8-6, with the former holding the tiebreaker, and the Colts are right behind them at 7-7.

While the Colts have a tough game against the Raiders in Week 16 and the Texans have a potentially tricky contest against the Cincinnati Bengals—though quarterback Tom Savage could prove to be their savior—the Titans have the good fortune of playing the 2-12 Jacksonville Jaguars in the penultimate week of the regular season.

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

The Titans are on a three-game winning streak, having eked out victories over the Bears, Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs. The latter two are especially impressive, as they came against strong AFC contenders who both made the playoffs last season (with the former winning the Super Bowl).

The Titans pulled off those wins despite poor play from quarterback Marcus Mariota, who had just 88 yards passing against Denver and threw one pick and no touchdowns against the Chiefs. 

The twin pistons of running backs DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry have kept the chains moving in the Titans' old-school, power-running attack. The defense has stepped up as well, bottling up Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith (163 yards, one interception) and consistently stifling the Broncos on third down while rendering the rushing game useless.

This bodes well for their game against the Jaguars. The Jags are good against the run with just 3.8 yards per carry allowed, per ESPN.com, but have trouble keeping runners out of the end zone (16 rushing touchdowns against). The Titans are the best team at converting red-zone opportunities into touchdowns this year, per TeamRankings.com. Mariota only needs to be good enough to get the team in position before Murray and Henry finish the job.

The Jaguars have a budding superstar in rookie cornerback Jalen Ramsey, but he likely won't be as impactful against a team that is predicated on the run and relies on tight end Delanie Walker more than anyone else in the passing game.

Tim Warner/Getty Images

Ramsey will have his hands full against wideout Rishard Matthews in this contest, but the Titans can always try to shake the aggressive rookie with some play-action scheming. Plus, Mariota's scrambling ability isn't going to disappear anytime soon.

The Jaguars offense has been in disarray for much of the season, with QB Blake Bortles regressing and neither T.J. Yeldon nor Chris Ivory making much progress in the run game. The Titans should be able to stymie the Jaguars offense with ease in this one, paving the way for a comfortable victory that could put the Titans on the verge of reaching the playoffs. 

The Cleveland Browns are two weeks away from turning in an 0-16 season. They play the San Diego Chargers on Saturday and finish their season with the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17. The Steelers could very well still be fighting to keep a playoff spot next week, making the wobbly Chargers the better bet for Cleveland to get a win and stave off total embarrassment. 

The Chargers are six-point favorites on the road in Cleveland, but don't have much going for them these days. There's trouble and distraction from the top down in this organization, with rumors of a move to Los Angeles building and Bleacher Report's Jason Cole hearing buzz that the team will likely fire head coach Mike McCoy at season's end:

On the gridiron, the Chargers have had a disastrous amount of injuries, hamstringing their often valiant efforts to win games against good teams. Running back Melvin Gordon missed the Bolts' Week 15 loss to the Oakland Raiders and still hasn't practiced this week.

His understudies Kenneth Farrow and Ronnie Hillman are hardly inspiring, placing more pressure on quarterback Philip Rivers to perform. Rivers has grown increasingly turnover-prone as the season's gone along, with 10 interceptions in his last five games. 

The Bolts defense has remained tough thanks to the efforts of first-time Pro Bowl cornerback Casey Hayward (seven interceptions) and rookie phenom Joey Bosa (3.5 sacks in last four games). The Browns offense can barely escape single digits in most weeks and will likely suffer against San Diego.

However, with the Chargers stumbling as the season comes to a close, they can perhaps cover the spread in this one, especially if Gordon is unable to play.

       

Note: expert picks are straight up, not against the spread. Odds are courtesy of OddsShark and updated as of Thursday, Dec. 22 at 10 a.m. ET.