Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Miami Dolphins (9-5) will try to keep their playoff hopes alive when they visit the Buffalo Bills (7-7) on Saturday as small road underdogs. The Dolphins have won eight of their last nine games following a 1-4 start, putting themselves in position to earn one of the wild-card spots in the AFC.

Point spread: The Bills opened as 3.5-point favorites. The total was 44 early in the week.

OddsShark computer pick: Bills 25.1, Dolphins 20.3 (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Miami did not seem to miss starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill (knee) last Saturday in a 34-13 rout of the New York Jets, and the team will go for its second straight road victory against a divisional opponent in Buffalo.

Tannehill's replacement, Matt Moore, threw a career-high four touchdowns at New York, including two each in the second and third quarters.

Per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the Dolphins are "very uncertain" whether Tannehill will be back this season, giving the veteran Moore another excellent opportunity to earn a key win for his team here.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

This could well be the last home game for Rex Ryan, who is the betting favorite to become the next head coach fired. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Ryan "is probably approaching his final games as the Bills' head coach."

Ryan has put a lot of faith in quarterback Tyrod Taylor for the Bills—maybe too much—which could end up costing him his job. Taylor has had another roller-coaster season in Buffalo but was solid in last week's 33-13 blowout of the winless Cleveland Browns.

The good thing is that the Bills have gone 9-2 straight up and against the spread in the previous 11 home meetings with Miami.

Smart pick

Whether Ryan ultimately stays or goes remains to be seen, but it is a huge handicapping factor nonetheless. His players came up large for him a week ago versus the Browns, and that figures to be the case again in this spot.

The Dolphins may not have needed Tannehill against the Jets, but he will be sorely missed at Buffalo. Look for the Bills to come through again for Ryan with another home victory and cover.

Betting trends

• The total has gone over in the Dolphins' last three games against the Bills.
• The Dolphins are 2-9 SU and ATS in their last 11 games on the road against the Bills.
• The Dolphins are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games in December.

All betting information courtesy of OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, OddsShark on YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.