Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) will look to bounce back from another tough home loss when they host the Denver Broncos (8-6) as small home favorites for their Week 16 Sunday night matchup.

The Chiefs have won eight of their last 10 games, but the two losses have come by identical 19-17 scores at Arrowhead Stadium, where they have lost five straight against the Broncos.

Point spread: The Chiefs opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 38 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.4-16.2 Chiefs (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

In addition to going 5-0 straight up in the past five meetings at Kansas City, Denver has also gone 6-1 against the spread in the last seven games played there.

Granted, many of those were played with Peyton Manning under center, but the Broncos still have an outside chance of making the playoffs and will be highly motivated to even the regular-season series at 1-1 following a 30-27 overtime loss to the Chiefs as 3.5-point home favorites in Week 12.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

This game means a lot more to Kansas City considering the AFC West title remains on the line and can be won if the team can just manage to finish with the same number of wins as the Oakland Raiders.

The Chiefs swept the Raiders in two meetings this year and would win the tiebreaker for the division crown, and now they will be looking for another sweep over Denver. The Broncos are only 1-5 ATS in their last six divisional games and have clearly struggled as of late offensively with Trevor Siemian at quarterback.

Smart pick

Kansas City may only be 2-5 ATS in its last seven primetime appearances, but one of the two covers came versus Denver in their previous meeting. The Chiefs simply cannot afford another home loss here after all of the positive momentum they have built up over the past two months.

They appear to be a dangerous opponent for any of the top contenders in the AFC, so look for them to make another serious statement on national TV and continue stating their case as a legit threat to win the Super Bowl with a cover.

Betting trends

The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road against the Chiefs.

The total has gone under in eight of the Chiefs' last 10 games.

The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against their division.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.