Week 16 NFL Picks: Over/Under Projections, Odds Advice and Line Spreads

On first pass, it seems like NFL bettors have a rather simple avenue to coming out ahead in Week 16.

This, of course, is the best-case scenario as the season winds down. Bettors have two weeks to either build on a playoff bankroll or recoup losses before the majority of the league joins bettors in watching from the couch.

These early-week lines seem to offer plenty in the way of openings, though shifts will happen fast as a result. It helps that the league itself doesn't have too many 50-50 games on tap in Week 16, with most seeming to boast a clear-cut winner one way or the other. 

Here's a look at the full list of odds and a few notable early picks to make. 

NFL Week 16 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
NY Giants at Philadelphia (TNF)	NYG -2.5	41.5	NYG 27-20
Minnesota at Green Bay	GB -6.5	43	GB 24-23
Tennessee at Jacksonville	TEN -4.5	44	TEN 30-23
Washington at Chicago	WAS -3.5	47	CHI 24-20
Miami at Buffalo	BUF -3.5	42	MIA 23-20
San Diego at Cleveland	SD -6	44	CLE 24-14
Atlanta at Carolina	ATL -3.5	53	ATL 33-30
NY Jets at New England	NE -16.5	44	NE 27-17
Indianapolis at Oakland	OAK -3.5	53	OAK 34-30
Tampa Bay at New Orleans	NO -3	52.5	TB 27-23
Arizona at Seattle	SEA -8.5	43.5	SEA 30-20
San Francisco at Los Angeles	LA -2	40	LA 17-14
Cincinnati at Houston	HOU -2	41	HOU 24-20
Baltimore at Pittsburgh	PIT -5	44	PIT 21-20
Denver at Kansas City	KC -4	37.5	KC 27-24
Detroit at Dallas (MNF)	DAL -7	43	DAL 28-24

Odds according to OddsShark.

Tennessee (-4.5) at Jacksonville

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press/Associated Press

When in doubt, pick against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Or better yet, when in doubt this year, roll with the Tennessee Titans.

The Titans are easily one of the NFL's best teams, regardless of whether the general public has caught on to the factoid. Bettors understand it more than most seeing as the Titans have won four of their last five, taking down contenders such as the Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos, not to mention doing the almost impossible and winning in Kansas City against the Chiefs.

Good luck finding a weakness for the Titans. Marcus Mariota has 25 touchdowns to nine interceptions, DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry have combined for more than 1,600 rushing yards and 13 scores, and the defense only allows 23.1 points per game with 34 sacks and 12 interceptions.

Compare that to the Jaguars, a two-win team without a victory since Week 6. The team sits in a limbo of sorts after canning former head coach Gus Bradley. This won't do much to fix Blake Bortles under center, nor a rushing attack without a rusher sitting on more than 500 yards.

These two met in Week 8, a 36-22 victory for the Titans as Mariota cruised with two touchdowns and both of his backs found room for a score as well. Bortles went for three touchdowns, but against a soft defense after entering the second half down 27-0.

This one should follow a similar course, with the Titans taking their foot off the gas in the second half, playoff health on the mind. 

Prediction: Titans 30-23

Arizona at Seattle (-8.5)

It's understandable for bettors to have some pause about a rematch between the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks.

NFC West games often have a flair for the dramatic when it comes to upsets. These two in particular could down such a route, especially after playing to a 6-6 tie back in Week 7.

One could go into the numbers there, but describing paint drying might be more entertaining. Instead, a fitting quote will suffice.

"That was really an amazing football game," Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll said, according to the Associated Press (via ESPN.com). "I don't think I have ever been in a tie before and my brain doesn't really know where to go."

Indeed, though the rematch won't be anything like it. Seattle struggling on the road isn't anything new, especially this year. Forget the tie, road losses have come in 9-3, 25-20, 14-5 and 38-10 fashion.

The Seahawks are still undefeated at home, hence winning two out of their last three games by totals of 40-7 and 24-3.

Rest assured the Cardinals also make this one an easy pick. The Cardinals have lost four of their last five, the once-proud defense coughing up point totals of 30, 38, 26 and 48 over the losses. Feel free to compare that to a Seattle defense allowing just 16.8 points per game.

At home, Russell Wilson's offense won't have much of a problem moving the ball. Arizona has clearly put up a white flag on the season and will be there to go through the motions, which bettors should capitalize on before the line shifts.

Prediction: Seahawks 30-20

Denver at Kansas City (-4)

Here's another rematch that seems much more difficult than it is, at least from an outright standpoint. 

In a normal year, the Denver Broncos going to Kansas City and managing to take down the Chiefs doesn't seem so crazy. Given the style of play and familiarity with an AFC West foe, it isn't a crazy notion.

But it is this year. Denver has lost three of four, the only win coming against the miserable Jaguars. Last time out, a high-profile showdown with the New England Patriots, the offense only scored three points, resulting in an apparent in-house shouting match, according to NFL.com's Michael Silver.

The Chiefs don't have any such problems. Kansas City looks comfortable, even after a two-point loss to Tennessee. The team has still won three of four, besting contenders such as Denver, the Atlanta Falcons and Oakland Raiders.

In Week 12, a 30-27 overtime victory against the Broncos on the road, Kansas City's breakout receiver Tyreek Hill caught a touchdown, ran for one and took a kick return back for a score.

This is a more dynamic offense than the Chiefs have rolled out in the past against the Broncos, which won't be as easily shuttered. Meanwhile, Kansas City's defense allows just 19.6 points per game, meaning a home advantage will make life on the road tough for the Broncos.

Look for the Chiefs to win a grind-it-out affair as the Broncos don't have the cohesion or firepower to save a dying season.

Prediction: Chiefs 27-24

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

Follow Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) on Twitter.