NFL Predictions Week 15: Picks and Projections for Top Underdogs' Upset Bids

Upsets take on a special vibe over the last three weeks of the season. 

In the NFL, a non-playoff team that pulls off an upset and plays spoiler is one of the highlights of the season; it's almost a Super Bowl of sorts if the unexpected victory ruins the plans of a rival.

For bettors, upsets represent one last chance to make some significant headway in the bankroll department, provided they know where and how to strike on potential shockers.

There's no exact science, but let's look at a few games on upset alert in Week 15.

NFL Week 15 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
L.A. Rams at Seattle (TNF)	SEA -15	40.5	SEA 34-14
Miami at N.Y. Jets (Saturday)	MIA -3	41.5	MIA 23-20
Green Bay at Chicago	GB -4	N/A	GB 27-20
Tennessee at Kansas City	KC -5	43.5	KC 28-20
Detroit at N.Y. Giants	NYG -4.5	N/A	DET 26-23
Cleveland at Buffalo	BUF -10	44	CLE 23-20
Indianapolis at Minnesota	MIN -4	44	IND 24-20
Philadelphia at Baltimore	BAL -5.5	N/A	BAL 20-17
Jacksonville at Houston	HOU -6	41	HOU 28-14
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati	PIT -3.5	45	PIT 27-17
New Orleans at Arizona	ARI -2.5	50	NO 28-24
San Francisco at Atlanta	ATL -11.5	51.5	ATL 33-10
New England at Denver	NE -3	N/A	NE 27-24
Oakland at San Diego	OAK -2.5	51	OAK 28-20
Tampa Bay at Dallas	DAL -7	N/A	DAL 27-23
Carolina at Washington (MNF)	WAS- 4.5	N/A	CAR 20-17

Odds according to OddsShark.

Detroit at N.Y. Giants (-4.5)

It's best for bettors to take a cautious approach with the New York Giants. 

Yes, the Giants snapped the Dallas Cowboys' 11-game streak in Week 14, but it wasn't too shocking since New York had beaten Dallas earlier in the season. The Giants had lost the week prior, and a somewhat impressive win streak contained triumphs against struggling teams such as Los Angeles, Cincinnati, Chicago and Cleveland.

Detroit, on the other hand, doesn't appear to have a fluky trait to speak of, not with the team leading the NFC North and having won five in a row and eight of its last nine.

This is a bad matchup for New York. Matthew Stafford, who has eight game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime this year, has four touchdowns to two interceptions over his last three outings.

For the Giants, the key remains Odell Beckham Jr., but Detroit corner Darius Slay is one of the few in the league who are athletic and talented enough to run with him on every down.

Featuring two defenses that allow 20.6 points or fewer per game, this one will come down to a few clutch plays. And as good as Eli Manning is, Stafford shines when it matters most. Look for the Lions to hit on a few big plays late to steal one.

Prediction: Lions 26-23

Cleveland at Buffalo (-10)

It's time.

Fans of the Buffalo Bills won't be pleased, but if any team on the remaining schedule is prone to coughing up the Cleveland Browns' first win, it's the Bills.

Where to start? The Bills have lost two in a row and five of their last seven, besting only iffy Cincinnati and Jacksonville teams in that span. This meshes well with Buffalo's entire season, seeing as the other wins came against underperforming Arizona, Los Angeles and San Francisco and the Tom Brady-less Patriots.

These Bills have a quarterback controversy because Tyrod Taylor has struggled so much this year, throwing only 13 touchdowns to six interceptions. The once-proud defense ranks 28th against the rush, getting gashed for 125.8 yards per game.

On the subject of the quarterback, head coach Rex Ryan had to come out and confirm Taylor will start, as NFL Network's Ian Rapoport shared:

Taylor won't change the fact the Bills just gave up 236 rushing yards and three touchdowns to Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell.

Buffalo looks like a team going through the motions, which is dangerous against a team like the Browns. Cleveland got Robert Griffin III back under center last week, and the offense rushed for 169 yards and a score on an average of 7.7 yards per carry.

If the Browns can run a ball-control offense against a miserable run defense, they have an avenue for victory here. This seems like the best matchup of the year for bettors to throw their weight behind the Browns.

Prediction: Browns 23-20

Indianapolis at Minnesota (-4)

This one is a tale of two teams headed in different directions.

Although the Minnesota Vikings helped bettors win some cash in Week 14 thanks to a win against the Jacksonville Jaguars, that doesn't build much confidence.

In reality, Minnesota has lost six of its last eight. The Indianapolis Colts, on the other hand, seem to have awakened from a slumber of sorts and have won three of five, with one of the losses being a five-point affair to the Houston Texans, an AFC South rival.

As NFL research pointed out, the Vikings will need some serious history on their side to break a trend:

A couple of notes here. First, the Vikings don't have anything close to an impressive offense. Adrian Peterson is still out, the offensive line continues to struggle, and Sam Bradford has thrown more than one touchdown in a game just three times this year.

Second, Andrew Luck isn't prone to turnovers, having tossed 25 touchdowns to 10 interceptions on the year. He's especially turned it on late while trying to push the Colts to the postseason, recording eight touchdowns to three picks over his last three outings.

If the Vikings had a more dynamic offense, this prediction might look different. But as usual, the defense can only compensate for a struggling unit for so long. Eventually, Luck will break the dam, maneuvering past an opposing offense that can't seem to get out of its own way.

Prediction: Colts 24-20

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

Follow Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) on Twitter.