If Not Tom Brady, Then Who? Analyzing the Best Alternative MVP Candidates
This year's MVP race is being run on a muddy track, uphill, with candidates carrying 100-pound cement bags on their backs.
No MVP candidate can separate himself from the pack. And the pack is having a hard time separating from the field. Heading into Week 15, the MVP short list looks like a rough draft in need of revision.
Here are the most common names being batted around and the reason why each is such an uninspiring choice.
Tom Brady: Missing a quarter of the season, for whatever reason, damages a player's resume. But there is more to it than that. You know how comic book fans never pick Superman as the best superhero because they are always seeking some hipper alternative? That's how the voters may feel about Brady, even though he has had an excellent (partial) season, even by his standards.
Derek Carr: Laid an egg in the most important game of the year/his career last Thursday. MVP candidates don't have to be perfect, but Carr doesn't have the reputation or track record to lay high-profile eggs yet.
Dak Prescott: Became the first person to go from MVP hopeful to the people's choice for an immediate benching in just over three hours Sunday night.
Ezekiel Elliott: If you aren't going to vote for the rookie quarterback on the 11-2 team, it feels weird to vote for the rookie running back on the 11-2 team.
Matt Ryan: A really strong candidate. Ryan already has over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns for a playoff contender, performing well against many tough opponents. But selecting Ryan feels too much like getting confused by the menu at a fancy bistro and settling for the turkey wrap.
Matthew Stafford: His eight fourth-quarter comebacks this year are remarkable, though they make you wonder what this cool outsider MVP candidate is doing during the first 75 percent of every game to always have to come from behind. Snark aside, Stafford is having a very good season. But he's the candidate you talk yourself into, then wonder later why you didn't just select Tom Brady.
With such a lackluster field, you may be looking for an alternative MVP candidate to consider. Well, look no further. The following players have strong numbers and are essential contributors to their teams. Some choices may sound a little wackier than others. But in a world where we are seriously considering Stafford for MVP because he led comebacks against teams like the Rams, Jaguars and Bears, all of these players deserve to have their cases heard.
Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers
2016 accomplishments: 1,053 yards and 563 receiving yards in 10 games, 118 carries for 620 yards and five touchdowns during the current four-game Steelers winning streak.
Without him, the Steelers would be: In pretty good shape, actually, thanks to DeAngelo Williams. But Bell's awesome backup should not be held against him in an MVP debate.
Devil's advocate: Bell, like Brady, was suspended at the start of the season. More troublingly, he carried 62 times for 223 yards and one touchdown during the four-game losing streak when Ben Roethlisberger was injured or hobbled.
The verdict: Bell is a trendy candidate after his mammoth performance in the snow against the Bills but had no real claim to the MVP award before that. He wasn't that big a factor when the Steelers needed him most, and he's probably not the best candidate in his own huddle.
Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers
2016 accomplishments: 93 catches for 1,130 yards and 11 touchdowns, three multi-touchdown performances.
Without him, the Steelers would be: Trying to build their passing game around Sammie Coates, who has been playing with a broken hand, and Eli Rogers, who gets open downfield about once per game. It would not be pretty or playoff-worthy.
Devil's advocate: No wide receiver has ever won the MVP award; defenders and kickers have won it, but not wide receivers.
The verdict: If Jerry Rice didn't win the MVP award for his 122-catch, 1,848-yard, 16-total touchdown season in 1995, Brown is unlikely to win it just for having a typical Brown year. But Rice had Brett Favre in full gunslinger mode to contend with. If Brown stays hot and the Steelers keep winning, this may be the year voters catch on to just how valuable elite receivers are in the modern, pass-heavy NFL.
David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals
2016 accomplishments: 1,830 yards from scrimmage, with 15 total touchdowns. Johnson has rushed 248 times and been targeted for 104 passes (more than any other running back, not to mention all but 18 wide receivers across the league), making him an offensive focal point in the truest sense of the phrase.
Without him, the Cardinals would be: Sending Carson Palmer get-well cards and contemplating what to do with a top-seven pick in next year's draft.
Devil's advocate: The Cardinals are a disappointing team that is far out of the playoff picture, largely because their offensive line fell apart this year. Which, come to think of it, works in favor of selecting a running back who will generate over 2,000 scrimmage yards by season's end with lousy blocking as the MVP.
The verdict: Johnson would be my MVP selection at this point if I had a vote. While I would never advocate for a player from a truly terrible team (though Johnny Hekker deserves a gourmet cheese log or something for his Rams season), the Cardinals have been competitive and would have sunk to the bottom of the league without Johnson. Johnson's 2016 season is comparable to Barry Sanders' 1997 co-MVP season (2,358 scrimmage yards, 14 touchdowns for a 9-7 team) or Earl Campbell's 1979 MVP season (1,791 scrimmage yards, 19 touchdowns), especially when you apply the eyeball test: Johnson looks like a distinctive, all-time-great rusher. The fact that the Cardinals can't block or play special teams shouldn't be held against him.
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
2016 accomplishments: 70 catches for 916 yards and three touchdowns. Five 100-plus yard games, including four straight in his last four games. Positive run-blocking grades from Pro Football Focus.
Without him, the Chiefs would be: Attempting to build a playoff-caliber offense completely out of running plays and wide receiver screens to Tyreek Hill.
Devil's advocate: A tight end with three touchdown catches as the MVP? C'mon.
The verdict: Based on the "value to a contending team" argument, Kelce may have the best case on this list. If Kelce played in some bellicose East Coast media market, we'd have his blocking, leadership and intangibles jammed down our throats every Sunday. But Kansas City is the NFL's official blind spot, where the Chiefs consistently win and command zero attention. Kelce would have needed about a dozen touchdowns to get on the radar. That's asking far too much of Alex Smith.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
2016 accomplishments: Just another 32-touchdown, seven-interception, 3,529-yard season, with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions in the last month of weather-affected, playoff-crucial games. That's all.
Without him, the Packers would be: Somewhere between the Houston Texans with a real schedule and the New York Jets.
Devil's advocate: But...but...but...there was something wrong with Aaron Rodgers this year. Remember? It was all we talked or wrote about in October? We would look pretty silly if we turned around and acknowledged how great his season has been after that hot-take-a-palooza.
The verdict: Rodgers-for-MVP will pick up steam if the Packers continue this playoff run. Sportswriter stubbornness is a powerful force, but sportswriter amnesia is even mightier.
Justin Tucker, Baltimore Ravens
2016 accomplishments: 31-of-32 on field-goal attempts, 9-of-9 from 50-plus yards
Without him, the Ravens would be: Completely unwatchable and far off the playoff chase. As opposed to just the former.
Devil's advocate: The last kicker to win an MVP award was Mark Moseley in 1982, and it was a weird choice in a strike-shortened season. No one is going to vote for a kicker as MVP anymore, and that's not a bad thing.
The verdict: The Ravens would definitely have lost the Jaguars and Bengals games with an ordinary kicker who could not be counted upon for 50-plus-yard clutch field goals. Tucker also played a huge rule in the Ravens' wins over the Bills, Browns and Steelers. Tucker's impact on Baltimore is far greater than the impact most kickers have on playoff-bound teams. It's probably not enough to sway voters, but if Tucker had converted that late onside kick Monday night and sparked an upset against the Patriots, a bandwagon might have revved up.
Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @MikeTanier.
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