Grading, Analyzing Every Impact Deal of the 2016 MLB Winter Meetings
It wouldn't be a proper day after the winter meetings without discussion of all the big deals.
The four days of hot-stove action at the Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center in National Harbor, Maryland, didn't disappoint. Among the things that happened were trades involving an elite starting pitcher, a star outfielder and a star closer, along with signings of some of the best players on the free-agent market.
We're going to round up the big moves and grade them based on how the price paid matches up with the quality of the player (or players) involved, as well as how the new additions fit with their new teams.
We'll go in chronological order, starting now.
Giants Sign Mark Melancon
1 of 8
Contract Terms: Four years, $62 million with full no-trade clause and opt-out after 2018
At the time, the $62 million contract the San Francisco Giants gave Mark Melancon was the largest ever for a relief pitcher, topping Jonathan Papelbon's $50 million contract by $12 million.
We can be real for a second. This is an outrageous amount of money to spend on a player who's only going to collect three outs most nights. Elite relief pitching is en vogue in today's MLB, but...man.
Compared to another relief contract signed this week, though, Melancon's deal is only a minor outrage.
Per FanGraphs, the $15.5 million average annual value of Melancon's deal lines up well with the value he's provided over the last four seasons. He's been the best relief pitcher in baseball to one extent, compiling a 1.80 ERA that leads all relievers.
Although Melancon will be 32 years old in March, the odds are good that he'll keep this up. He gets by not on velocity but on pinpoint command of a cutter and curveball that feature nasty movement. He avoids walks and induces a lot of soft contact, mainly on the ground.
That talent will play well with the Giants' excellent infield defense. That's just another reason to believe Melancon will cure what ailed a bullpen that blew 30 saves in 2016. That was a big reason the Giants were limited to 87 wins and the reason they crashed and burned in the postseason.
The money here is definitely steep, but it's putting a round peg in a round hole.
Grade: A-
Dodgers Sign Rich Hill
2 of 8
Contract Terms: Three years, $48 million
Rich Hill's $48 million payday from the Los Angeles Dodgers is nothing if not a great story. It's worth five times his career earnings, and it's his reward for resurrecting a career that seemed dead and buried.
There's no question the Dodgers have signed the most talented starting pitcher the market had to offer. Hill has put up a 2.00 ERA in 24 major league starts since 2015, holding hitters to a microscopic .507 OPS.
The 36-year-old left-hander has been an elite strike-thrower and has baffled hitters with a physics-defying curveball and a fastball that plays faster than its low-90s velocity. That's his spin rate at work.
"We can sit here and talk about a 90-93 fastball and why it looks like it's 96-97," he told me in May. "When you have the highest swing-and-miss percentage in baseball on your fastball, people might ask, 'Why is that?' Because when people see velocity, sometimes they don't understand the perceptual side of it."
The big concern is not Hill's ability but his durability. Even in logging just 110.1 innings in 2016, he notched only his second career season with more than 100 innings. The most recent additions to his long list of injuries are a groin strain and nagging blister problems.
However, the Dodgers are equipped to deal with Hill's durability issues. Their starting rotation has enough depth to pick up the slack if and when Hill gets hurt or needs an extra day or two between starts.
It's not as if they're risking too much money, either. Hill didn't even get as much as the market's top relievers and will earn no more than the going rate for a quality starter these days.
Grade: B+
Red Sox Trade Prospects to White Sox for Chris Sale
3 of 8
To Boston: LHP Chris Sale
The biggest trade of the winter meetings entire offseason is one the Boston Red Sox didn't need to make. They already had Rick Porcello and David Price and solid depth underneath them.
But one does not simply say "no thank you" to Chris Sale. The left-hander has finished in the top six of the Cy Young voting five straight years, compiling a 3.04 ERA and a 5.08 K/BB in the process.
It can't be ignored that Sale's velocity and strikeout rate dipped in his age-27 season in 2016. But he put up a 3.34 ERA despite that and may have deserved even better. Mike Petriello of MLB.com highlighted how much Sale was hurt by bad pitch framing. The Red Sox should help with that.
Highlighted by MLB.com No. 1 prospect Yoan Moncada, the price the Red Sox paid to get Sale is certainly big. But not too big.
Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs figures Sale has $84.5 million in surplus value on top of the $39.5 million he's owed through 2019. Per Kevin Creagh and Steve DiMiceli of the Point of Pittsburgh, even Moncada isn't worth close to that much.
Besides, these prospects weren't going to help the Red Sox win now. Sale not only will but arguably makes them the team to beat in the American League.
Grade: A
To Chicago: INF Yoan Moncada, RHP Michael Kopech, RHP Victor Diaz, OF Luis Alexander Basabe
While a straight-up Moncada-for-Sale trade wouldn't have been good enough for the Chicago White Sox, the 21-year-old Cuban is just the guy to kick-start the rebuild they need after four straight losing seasons.
Moncada is arguably the best prospect in baseball. He looks the part too. He's a switch-hitter with power and speed who's close to being major league-ready. He does have question marks, but his upside is that of a future MVP.
Michael Kopech ranks as MLB.com's No. 30 prospect and is now the No. 3 prospect in Chicago's system. In 2016, his fastball reached a height that only Aroldis Chapman has visited before: 105 mph.
Diaz and Basabe are lesser prospects but not mere throw-ins. Diaz is another guy with a power fastball. Basabe is a bucket of tools who now ranks as Chicago's No. 9 prospect.
This trade essentially breaks down to one elite prospect, one very good prospect and two projectable prospects. The White Sox got a lot of upside back for a guy who's long since realized his own.
Grade: A
.png?w=256)
Rays Sign Wilson Ramos
4 of 8
Contract Terms: Two years, $12.5 million with $5.75 million in incentives
Wilson Ramos was in line for a huge contract throughout most of 2016. He had a big breakout year in which he hit .307 with an .850 OPS and 22 home runs, all career highs.
But then Ramos, 29, tore his ACL in September. That draped a veil of uncertainty over his market, suggesting somebody could get him at a discounted rate.
Leave it to the Tampa Bay Rays to take advantage.
On paper, Ramos will be just what the Rays have been missing when he returns midway through 2017. Their catchers have produced a .580 OPS since 2014, easily the lowest in the league.
After finishing 14th in the American League in runs in 2016, the Rays offense will gladly take the boost. Ramos will also get to work with a quietly strong pitching staff, led by Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly and (hopefully) full seasons of Blake Snell and Alex Cobb.
Still, this only makes the Rays a sleeper contender in an AL East dominated by the Red Sox. FanGraphs only projects the Rays for 82 wins in 2017. After 2017, Cobb and star second baseman Logan Forsythe are likely gone as free agents.
The real end game may be to wait for Ramos to rebuild his value and then trade him. Between this and the lingering question of how well he'll recover from his injury, it's a good thing the Rays aren't risking much.
Grade: B
Rockies Sign Ian Desmond
5 of 8
Contract Terms: Five years, $70 million with $15 million club option ($2 million buyout) for 2022
Although not on Hill's level, Ian Desmond's signing for $70 million is another feel-good story. This helps make up for his gaffe of not taking a $100 million extension offer three years ago.
Why this money came from the Colorado Rockies, though, I'm not sure.
There's no doubting their offense. After OPS'ing .782 with 22 homers and 21 steals in 2016, Desmond is just another dangerous bat to go with Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story, DJ LeMahieu and David Dahl.
The wrench in the gears is Colorado's plan to play Desmond at first base. It's a position the 31-year-old has never played before and one he's still too athletic to be wasted at. And as Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated covered, Desmond's bat isn't good enough to live up to the position's lofty offensive standards.
The other loss here is the No. 11 pick in the 2017 draft the Rockies forfeited.
Certainly, more wins are in order in 2017. But it's going to take a drastic leap to go from 75 wins in 2016 to contending with the Giants and Dodgers in the NL West. Desmond alone isn't enough for the Rockies to take that leap.
The picture could change if the Rockies make a trade that brings back talent and/or frees up money to sign another player. But on its own, the Rockies are taking a loss on this one.
Grade: C-
Cubs Trade Jorge Soler to Royals for Wade Davis
6 of 8
To Chicago: RHP Wade Davis
The Chicago Cubs never seemed interested in breaking the bank for one of the top free-agent closers. If something like this trade is what they had in mind all along, then bravo.
Wade Davis ran into injury trouble in 2016, as a bad forearm limited him to just 45 appearances. But he remained dominant despite that, posting a 1.87 ERA and holding hitters to a .537 OPS.
If Davis stays healthy, a season more in line with his 2014-15 performance could be on tap for 2017. He had a 0.97 ERA in those two seasons, striking out 12.1 batters per nine innings and holding hitters to a .429 OPS. He also allowed just one earned run in 25 postseason frames.
The Cubs aren't risking too much to find out. Jorge Soler was the odd man out in their outfield mix. They're also on the hook to pay Davis a reasonable $10 million in 2017.
Compared to what relievers are going for this winter, you might say that even sounds quaint.
Grade: B+
To Kansas City: RF Jorge Soler
This trade feels like fallout from the new collective bargaining agreement. It changed the compensation system for free agents, putting the Kansas City Royals in a tough spot with a group of players due to hit free agency after 2017. Davis was one of them.
Whether this is the first step in a larger sell-off remains to be seen. For now, swapping Davis for Soler is a solid move for the club.
Soler's development has stalled in the last two seasons, in which he's managed just a .741 OPS in 187 games at the major league level. But he was an elite prospect as recently as 2015 and is still only 24 years old. The Royals can now offer him what the Cubs couldn't: regular at-bats.
The Royals have Soler for four years. He can either develop into a role player on a contender or be trade bait on a rebuilder. The Royals are only sacrificing a closer to find out, and said closer's shoes should be aptly filled by Kelvin Herrera.
Grade: A
Nationals Trade Prospects to White Sox for Adam Eaton
7 of 8
To Washington: OF Adam Eaton
The Washington Nationals began the winter meetings linked to guys like Sale and Andrew McCutchen, and they walked away with Adam Eaton. Not as sexy a name, to be sure.
But Eaton is a quality player. He's put up a .783 OPS with 29 homers and 47 stolen bases over the last three seasons. He added tremendous defense in right field in 2016, putting him among the top WAR merchants in the American League.
But in Washington, Eaton will be moving back to center field. He hasn't rated as well in center throughout his career, so he could be downgraded from a star to more of a borderline star.
A borderline star doesn't sound like an appropriate return in a deal headlined by two elite pitching prospects. Hence the bad vibe surrounding this trade in some places—including here at B/R.
Some perspective is in order, however. Eaton doesn't need to be a star for a Nationals team that just won 95 games in 2016. He just needs to help them take the next step. With him and Trea Turner due to set the table for Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon and Daniel Murphy, that can happen.
The Nationals are also going to have Eaton for five years at very cheap rates. He's going to help them contend in these seasons. No matter how talented they are, the pitching prospects the Nats gave up offered no such certainty.
Grade: B
To Chicago: RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP Reynaldo Lopez, RHP Dane Dunning
On paper, this is a monstrous haul of prospects that's arguably even better than the one the White Sox pulled in for Sale.
MLB.com rates Lucas Giolito as baseball's No. 3 prospect and Reynaldo Lopez as the No. 38 prospect. Both have the power arms that could make them top-of-the-rotation starters in the long run.
The catch is that Giolito's ranking is dated at this point. He has a strong minor league track record, highlighted by a 2.73 ERA and a 9.7 K/9. But he failed to impress in six major league appearances in 2016 and convinced at least one Nationals official that it was no mirage.
"He's not going to be what I thought he was going to be," the official told Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post.
Nonetheless, the White Sox are the right team to make something of Giolito. They're good with young pitchers, and the 22-year-old Giolito certainly still counts as young. They can also make something of Lopez and Dunning, who's just a few months removed from being drafted.
Once again, the White Sox get back plenty of upside in a trade of an established player.
Grade: A-
Yankees Sign Aroldis Chapman
8 of 8
Contract Terms: Five years, $86 million
Just two days after Melancon set a new mark for relief pitcher money, Aroldis Chapman and the New York Yankees came along and beat it by $24 million.
Mind you, this is yet another defensible amount. Chapman's new average salary of $17.2 million is actually slightly less than the value he's provided in a typical season.
This is the work of arguably baseball's most dominant relief pitcher. Chapman owns a 1.84 ERA with a rate of 15.7 strikeouts per nine innings since 2012. No other reliever has produced more wins above replacement in this span. Not to mention as many high-octane fastballs.
According to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman was also quick to point out Chapman isn't costing the team a draft pick.
But while Chapman's contract is defensible on a performance basis, it is somewhat uncomfortable that such a huge payday is going to a guy who was suspended for an alleged domestic violence incident.
Beyond that, one wonders what the Yankees are hoping for.
Even a reliever as good as Chapman won't elevate them far above the 84 games they won in 2016. The real goal for their immediate future is to mold a contender out of their impressive collection of young talent. That could take a couple of years. Their most realistic target for contention is 2019.
With his age-29 season due up in 2017, Chapman's fastball may not have the same sizzle by the time the Yankees get to 2019. If age doesn't do the trick, injuries could. Relievers do burn bright and fast, after all.
This is not a case where a team is signing a missing link. It's a team that's trying to convince people it's trying.
Grade: D
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
.png?w=480)
