NFL Playoff Picture Week 14: Breaking Down AFC and NFC Postseason Outlook

The Kansas City Chiefs did something fairly miraculous on Sunday in Week 13 to flip the script on the Atlanta Falcons and dramatically improve their own chances of making the postseason.

In one play, the Chiefs managed to turn a one-point deficit into a one-point lead without having control of the football and without any time expiring off the game clock. Pretty neat trick.

The Falcons took a 28-27 lead on the Chiefs late in the fourth quarter on Sunday on an Aldrick Robinson touchdown reception. The Falcons attempted to tack on two points, but Berry—already with a pick-six on the day—intercepted quarterback Matt Ryan and returned the ball to the opposite end zone for a defensive two-point conversion and a 29-28 Chiefs lead.

Since the go-ahead play came on a two-point conversion attempt, no time expired on the clock.

The 29-28 scoreline stood until the end of the game, improving the Chiefs' record to 9-3 overall and keeping them apace in the AFC West with the Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders, who defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills, respectively, on Sunday. 

The Chiefs' manner of victory was the most astounding of a Week 13 NFL Sunday that saw the playoff picture come into sharper focus, with the 11-1 Dallas Cowboys becoming the first team to clinch a spot in the postseason.

Here's a look at the current NFL postseason picture before Monday night's contest between the Indianapolis Colts and New York Jets:

Seed	AFC		NFC
Still In the Hunt
1	Oakland Raiders (10-2)		Dallas Cowboys (11-1)
2	New England Patriots (10-2)		Seattle Seahawks (8-3-1)
3	Baltimore Ravens (7-5)		Detroit Lions (8-4)
4	Houston Texans (6-6)		Atlanta Falcons (7-5)
5	Kansas City Chiefs (9-3)		New York Giants (8-4)
6	Denver Broncos (8-4)		Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
	Miami Dolphins (7-5)		Washington Redskins (6-5-1)
	Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)		Minnesota Vikings (6-6)
	Buffalo Bills (6-6)		Green Bay Packers (6-6)
	Tennessee Titans (6-6)		Arizona Cardinals (5-6-1)
	Indianapolis Colts (5-6)		New Orleans Saints (5-7)
	San Diego Chargers (5-7)		Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)
	Cincinnati Bengals (4-7-1)		Carolina Panthers (4-8)
	New York Jets (3-8)		Los Angeles Rams (4-8)
			Chicago Bears (3-9)

The Cowboys booked a trip to the postseason thanks to the Washington Redskins' 31-23 loss to the Arizona Cardinals and can wrap up the NFC East title in Week 14 with a win over the New York Giants.

Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images

The Seattle Seahawks would appear to be the NFC team with the next-best chance of wrapping up the division. They were in imperious form on Sunday with a 40-7 win over the Carolina Panthers and maintain a three-game cushion over the Cardinals. If Seattle doesn't clinch the NFC West in the next two weeks, a Week 16 date against the Cardinals in Arizona should prove decisive. 

Despite the stunning loss to the Chiefs, the Falcons are still the leaders in the NFC South but now have the same 7-5 record as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who defeated the San Diego Chargers 28-21 on Sunday to extend their winning streak to four games. 

It looks to be a two-horse race in the NFC South, but the 5-7 New Orleans Saints have a huge opportunity to make up ground in the division and, by extension, the wild-card hunt. The Saints still have to play the Bucs twice and the Falcons once. Their other remaining game is against the up-and-down Cardinals. 

Still, the Falcons might yet have the best chance of winning the division, as they are in pole position, and their four remaining opponents sport a combined record of 14-34. 

The Detroit Lions managed to do what few other teams have this season and stymie the Saints' high-powered offense in a 28-13 win on Sunday. The Lions own a two-game lead in the NFC North over the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers.

While the Vikings are fading from contention with just one win in their last seven games, the Packers remain dangerous with a two-game winning streak and a looming Week 17 date with the Lions. However, it's going to prove difficult to make up the ground, especially with a Week 14 game against the Seahawks.

"I told the team this the other day: Until you win 10 games in this league, it's nonsense to talk about anything else," McCarthy said, per ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky. "So we're not worried about Detroit or any other team out there or what anybody's record is. We have six wins, and we know we've got to get to seven fast."

Over in the AFC, the Oakland Raiders are currently the No. 1 seed in the conference, a situation the franchise hasn't even come close to since they captured the top-overall seed in the 2002 regular season.

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

It has to be lonely at the top for Oakland. The oft-villainous franchise is not only battling the New England Patriots (10-2) for home-field advantage but looking to avoid slipping down to the wild card, with the Chiefs and Broncos lurking just below them in the AFC West division standings. The Raiders are at least essentially in control of their own destiny, as they play the Chiefs in Week 14 and the Broncos in Week 17. 

The imbalance of power in the AFC is such that the Chiefs and Broncos currently hold precarious wild-card spots despite having better records than the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens, who are tops in the AFC South and AFC North, respectively.

This must feel especially unfair to the Broncos, who have to fend off wild-card challenges from several teams, including the Miami Dolphins, Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans.

The Wild Card Round is essentially the only path forward for the Dolphins and Bills, who trail New England in the AFC East. The Dolphins stumbled in Week 13 with a 38-6 loss to the Ravens, snapping a six-game winning streak and dropping from the No. 6 seed to seventh place in the AFC.

Miami fans are going to be white-knuckling it until the end of the season, as quarterback Ryan Tannehill imploded with three interceptions against the Ravens and has remained frustratingly inconsistent even in the boom times for the Dolphins.

The AFC North looks like it will come down to either the Ravens or the Steelers. The loser of this battle will be hard-pressed to make the playoffs, considering the competition for the two wild-card spots.

The Ravens have a tough schedule to close out the season but have to feel good about the play of Joe Flacco, who threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns against the Dolphins. ESPN.com's Jamison Hensley noted that it was a particularly strong display given the competition at hand:

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What makes Flacco's performance more impressive is that it came against the same Dolphins who picked off the San Diego Chargers' Philip Rivers four times and held the Pittsburgh Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger under 200 yards passing.

Flacco ranked No. 29 in passer rating entering this game. Only Case Keenum, Ryan Fitzpatrickand Brock Osweiler had been worse.

But Flacco couldn't get hotter at a better time. The Ravens (7-5) finish out the season with the Philadelphia Eagles at home and road trips to New England, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.

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The Colts can't move into first place in the AFC South with a win over the Jets on Monday, but they could improve their record to 6-6 and make one of the league's weakest divisions an oddly compelling one to watch as the season comes to a close. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck was inactive for his team's Week 12 loss to Pittsburgh, but he has cleared the league's concussion protocol and will play against the Jets.

Luck's health will be crucial to a potential playoff run. Second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota has made impressive strides for the Titans, bringing balance to an offense that spent the beginning of the season leaning heavily on a DeMarco Murray-led running game. Houston's own quarterback situation is a mess with the ineffectual Brock Osweiler, which puts them in a tough position every week. 

The Colts will need Luck's experience and savvy if they are to win this race for the AFC South.