NFL Week 13 Picks: Game Props, Over-Under Lines and Odds Predictions

The end of Thanksgiving means many things. Turkey sandwiches, a few guilty minutes on the treadmill perhaps and a return to some normalcy in the NFL schedule. 

Rather than three Thursday night games, the upcoming slate gives us the more traditional Sunday-heavy schedule and with it some great matchups. 

Bye weeks are pretty much over. The Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns are the only teams sitting out this week, which means we'll miss only one NFL team in Week 13. 

Looking across the slate, Vegas has deemed plenty of games to be virtual coin flips. Here's a look at the complete schedule, along with predictions for each game and a closer look at some notable matchups. 

Matchup	Spread	O/U	ATS and O/U Pick
Dallas at Minnesota (TNF)	DAL -3.5	44	MIN/U
Miami at Baltimore	BAL -3.5	40.5	BAL/O
San Francisco at Chicago	CHI -1	43	SF/O
Houston at Green Bay	GB -6.5	45.5	GB/O
Kansas City at Atlanta	ATL -3.5	49	KC/O
L.A. Rams at New England	NE -13.5	44.5	NE/U
Detroit at New Orleans	NO -5.5	53.5	NO/O
Philadelphia at Cincinnati	PHI -1	42	PHI/U
Denver at Jacksonville	DEN -5	41	DEN/U
Buffalo at Oakland	OAK -3	49	OAK/O
Tampa Bay at San Diego	SD -4	47.5	SD/O
Washington at Arizona	ARI -2.5	49.5	ARI/O
N.Y. Giants at Pittsburgh	PIT -6	49	PIT/U
Carolina at Seattle	SEA -6.5	44.5	SEA/U
Indianapolis at N.Y. Jets (MNF)	IND -1.5	49.5	IND/U

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Picks of the Week

Kansas City at Atlanta

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

This is one of the best matchups of the week because it pits the Atlanta Falcons' explosive offense against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that might just be back to top-tier status. 

The Falcons' offensive onslaught this season has been a storyline all year. They are the No. 1 team in the league in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric thanks to an offense that ranks second in the league. They're tops in the league in yards per play (6.6) and points per game (32.5). 

On top of all that, they appear to be getting more dangerous. Last week, Taylor Gabriel emerged as a dangerous weapon to add to their arsenal with two touchdowns on the day and the ability to turn a simple screen pass into six points:

The Chiefs had a breakthrough performance of their own last week, though. 

Outside linebacker Justin Houston made his second start of the season after recovering from ACL surgery and made his impact felt against the Denver Broncos. He put up 10 tackles, three sacks and a forced fumble that led to a safety in a 30-27 win for the Chiefs. 

For Houston, the comeback performance was a huge boost for his confidence, according to Pete Sweeney of Chiefs.com:

"

I’ve been so hungry. [Rehab] was a long process and through that whole process, I grew spiritually. That helped me so much. Knowing I was going to get back to where I was and dominate the way that I did [was a big motivation]. I saw this game coming months ago. I worked and I had faith and I believed. When you have those three things, nothing can stop you.

"

Houston's return is important for a defense that has been good but not great to this point in the season. The Chiefs are ranked 13th based on DVOA, but the addition of a healthy Houston should be enough to bump this team into the top defenses in the league. 

Since the Chiefs just put up 30 against a Broncos defense that is No. 2 in DVOA, it's fair to assume that Alex Smith and Co. will score against the No. 24-ranked defense of Atlanta. 

With Houston disrupting the passing game, Kansas City should have enough to make key stops on defense and pick up an upset win on the road. 

Kansas City 27, Atlanta 24

Houston at Green Bay

Don't look now, but the Green Bay Packers are finally showing signs of life after appearing to be dead on arrival for the homestretch during a four-game losing streak. 

The Packers finally snapped the skid—which featured blowout losses to the Washington Redskins and Tennessee Titans—with a 27-13 win on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football. 

The win was huge in terms of motivation for the Packers because it puts them in a great position to contend for the NFC North title despite their struggles this season. As NFL on ESPN notes, the schedule is favorable for the Packers, who end the season with the current division-leading Detroit Lions:

So on one side of this matchup, you have the team that is coming off a big win and suddenly back in the playoff picture. On the other side, you have a team that has been awful on the road. The Texans are 1-4 on the road this season; the lone win was a 24-21 squeaker over the Jacksonville Jaguars. 

Although they lead the AFC South, a deeper dive into the numbers shows that the Texans are not as good as their 6-5 record indicates. The Texans are 30th in DVOA and 26th in ESPN's Football Power Index.

The on-field performance and advanced stats are finally starting to match up for the Texans. They've lost back-to-back games at home against the San Diego Chargers and Oakland Raiders. A road trip isn't likely to be what they need to get back on track. 

These two teams are trending in opposite directions, and that should continue Sunday. 

Green Bay 35, Houston 21

Carolina at Seattle

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

The only reason to be leery of taking the Seattle Seahawks at home against the Carolina Panthers is that the line seems too good to be true. 

But looking at the game from a logic standpoint, the Seahawks winning by a touchdown feels like the safest bet on the slate. 

The Seahawks are still money at home. Seattle does a great job of holding serve at CenturyLink Field with a 5-0 home record. 

The Panthers, meanwhile, are a paltry 1-4 on the road. The defending NFC champions are on the wrong track, and despite their last three games being decided by a total of nine points, they aren't anywhere near operating at the capacity that the Seahawks are right now. 

The Seahawks are fourth in DVOA and once again anchored by a defense that ranks fourth and an offense that ranks a respectable 11th. The Panthers are 22nd in DVOA thanks to an offense that doesn't seem to have much rhythm this year. 

Seattle is coming off an embarrassing 14-5 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road. A team of Seattle's caliber isn't likely to put two bad weeks together. 

Expect Russell Wilson and Co. to get things rolling again with a return to CenturyLink Field against Cam Newton and the reeling Panthers.