NFL Playoff Picture 2016: Week 13 Standings, Wild Card Info and Super Bowl Odds
As we approach the three-quarter mark of the 2016 NFL season, the playoff picture does not look one iota clearer than it did even four weeks ago.
The New England Patriots and winner of the AFC South are probably headed for first-round byes. So are the Dallas Cowboys and, barring a second-half swoon, the Seattle Seahawks. We knew that a while ago. The tea leaves we were reading then are essentially written in ink at this point.
Beyond those four teams, it's complete havoc. The remaining four divisions are separated by one game or less. The AFC Wild Card picture has six teams with at least six wins. The New York Giants look like a good bet for the No. 5 seed in the NFC, but the sixth spot is going to be a multi-pronged race to the finish.
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Monday night's game between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles will extend the life of one team and deal a critical blow to the other. Here's a look at the updated playoff picture, along with the major through lines worth watching in Week 13.
NFL Standings
| New England Patriots | 9 | 2 | 0 |
| Miami Dolphins | 7 | 4 | 0 |
| Buffalo Bills | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| New York Jets | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0 | 12 | 0 |
| Houston Texans | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Tennessee Titans | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Oakland Raiders | 9 | 2 | 0 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| Denver Broncos | 7 | 4 | 0 |
| San Diego Chargers | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10 | 1 | 0 |
| New York Giants | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| Washington Redskins | 6 | 4 | 1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Detroit Lions | 7 | 4 | 0 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Green Bay Packers | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Chicago Bears | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 4 | 0 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| New Orleans Saints | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Carolina Panthers | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 1 | 10 | 0 |
What to Make of Close Divisional Races
The North and South divisions in both conferences are still completely up for grabs. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens are gridlocked in the AFC South, the Tennessee Titans are a half-game out in the AFC South and the Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons hold one-game leads over the Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, respectively.
The Ravens currently hold the tiebreaker over Pittsburgh, but the smart money is on the Steelers to pull this out. They're almost fully healthy after spending the first half with stars banged up, on suspension or both. They've outscored opponents 52-16 on the road during their two-game win streak and host the Ravens and Cleveland Browns in their final two games.
Baltimore closes with three of its final four games on the road, including trips to Pittsburgh and New England. Every team remaining on Baltimore's schedule has a .500 record or better, except the Bengals.
The Texans and Titans are staring nervously into their rearviews at the Indianapolis Colts, who should get Andrew Luck back next week with only a one-game separation in the division. Indy has already swept Tennessee and hosts Houston in two weeks; win that game, and the Colts are clear favorites in the NFL's weakest division.
The Texans go to Green Bay and Indy in the next two weeks and could easily wind up stretching their losing streak to four. Tennessee is likely a year away from contention and closes with three of its four games against above-.500 competition.
Detroit finished off its season sweep of Minnesota on Thanksgiving and can probably make the playoffs at 9-7. The Packers' getting their stuff together Monday night is a worst-case scenario. Green Bay has already beaten the Lions once and closes its season out in Detroit. It's hard to see Aaron Rodgers navigating the Pack's difficult schedule to recover from their 4-6 hole, but they're a looming giant until they're finally slain for good.
Likewise, Atlanta's one-game lead in the NFC South feels bigger. The Falcons have one of the NFL's two or three best offenses and a point differential that's 71 points better than the Bucs. Tampa is nevertheless 5-2 in its last seven games, including a road win over the Chiefs last week and an upset of the Seahawks on Sunday.
Their defense has clamped down in a big way since giving up 43 to the Falcons four games ago, and Doug Martin's return has stabilized the running game. If Jameis Winston can be more consistent and avoid turnovers, the Bucs have a real shot at nudging their way into the playoffs.
Where Do the Wild Cards Go From Here?
In the AFC, the Chiefs put their stamp on one of the two wild-card spots Sunday night. Their overtime win puts them in the driver's seat at 8-3, and they have at least two (vs. Titans, at Chargers) winnable games left on the slate. Odds are that 10-6 will be good enough to get in, and Kansas City has already won six of its last seven.
The Broncos are in real trouble. They close by hosting the Patriots and Raiders, with a road trip to Kansas City sandwiched in between. Trips to Jacksonville and Tennessee the next two weeks could get the defending champs to 9-4. One slip-up, and the Broncos are going to have a tough time, unless they find some offensive rhythm.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, have what might be the quietest six-game winning streak in NFL history. They've reeled off win after win following an ugly 1-4 start, handing over the offense to Jay Ajayi in the running game and allowing Ryan Tannehill to play to his strengths. Tannehill's thrown nine touchdowns against one interception during the streak.
Among wild-card contenders, the Buffalo Bills and Steelers are hanging out as threats. Buffalo can put itself in the mix with two wins over the Raiders and Steelers the next two weeks. The Steelers can do the same by defeating the Giants and Bills.
The NFC is a little less muddled. New York's 8-3 record puts it two clear of any other team in the win column. If the Giants go 2-3 the rest of the way, you can write them in with a Sharpie.
Washington continues to hold a half-game lead over the remaining field despite its loss to Dallas on Thanksgiving. With the aforementioned issues in Tampa and Minnesota, this might be an ugly race to the finish. Washington has trips to Arizona and Philly that could easily drop it to 6-6-1 on the season; there's a shot that the final wild-card spot will go to a team with eight wins.
None of the contenders have separated themselves, though the Eagles' point differential looks awfully impressive heading into Monday.
In a nutshell: All it's going to take is one team to get even a little hot, and we'll have ourselves a sixth NFC playoff team.
Super Bowl Odds
| New England Patriots | +225 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +450 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +550 |
| Oakland Raiders | +1200 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +1400 |
| Denver Broncos | +2000 |
| New York Giants | +2000 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +2200 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +2500 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +3300 |
| Detroit Lions | +3300 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +3300 |
| Washington Redskins | +4000 |
| Arizona Cardinals | +5000 |
| Green Bay Packers | +5000 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +5000 |
| Houston Texans | +5000 |
| Carolina Panthers | +5000 |
| Miami Dolphins | +6600 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +10000 |
| Tennessee Titans | +10000 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +10000 |
| Buffalo Bills | +10000 |
| New Orleans Saints | +15000 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +20000 |
| San Diego Chargers | +20000 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +50000 |
| New York Jets | +50000 |
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