New England Patriots vs. New York Jets Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New England Patriots (8-2) will play on the road for the fourth time in five games when they visit the New York Jets (3-7) as solid betting favorites. The Patriots have dominated this divisional matchup with the Jets over the past five years but have struggled to cover the number recently.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. Line updates and matchup report.

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 28.4-19.2 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England has won eight of the past 10 meetings with New York straight up, according to the Odds Shark NFL Database. The Patriots have also gone an amazing 16-2 SU in their last 18 games after losing the previous meeting in a matchup.

That bodes well for them, especially considering their recent success away from home overall. Bill Belichick's team is a perfect 5-0 SU and against the spread on the road, with the last four games all decided by double digits, including three over the past month.

Why the Jets can cover the spread

For whatever reason, the Jets always seem to give New England fits no matter how bad they are. This season's first meeting will put that to the test yet again, as the Patriots have not covered at New York since 2012 in the infamous butt-fumble game played on Thanksgiving night.

The Jets are an impressive 5-0-1 ATS in the past six meetings overall, with none of those games decided by more than seven points. They will also have veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick back under center, for better or worse.

Smart pick

This is New York's Super Bowl, making New England a tough pick to win by more than a touchdown and cover the big number. The Patriots struggled at times last week against the San Francisco 49ers before putting them away in the fourth quarter, and the Jets should be a bit more refreshed off their bye week.

New York is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games following a bye and should be well-prepared to battle New England, a team the players are familiar with as their biggest division rivals. Fly with the Jets on the NFL point spreads.

Betting trends

The Patriots are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Jets.

The total has gone over in 11 of the Patriots' last 13 games against the Jets.

The total has gone under in five of the Patriots' last six games as road favorites.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.