MLB Free Agency 2016-17: Early Clues to Where Top 10 Players Will Land
The dominoes generally don't start falling during the MLB offseason until the winter meetings—which will take place from December 5 to 8—but the rumor mill is already in full swing.
Offseason markets are so intertwined that one signing can spark a flurry of activity, with teams scrambling to lock down plan B after missing out on plan A.
For now, all we have is a spattering of rumors from around the MLB community to hold us over until the hot stove heats up in a month or so.
The top 10 free agents on this year's market are highlighted ahead, with that group chosen based on a combination of earning power and expected impact over the life of their next contract.
While the markets for those 10 players are still taking shape, we've taken a look at the early clues on where they might eventually wind up.
LF Yoenis Cespedes
1 of 10
2016 Stats
Free-Agency Outlook
By opting out of the final two years of the deal he signed with the New York Mets last winter, Yoenis Cespedes left $47.5 million on the table for a chance at a bigger payday.
Anything can happen on the free-agent market, but all signs point to that being the right decision.
The 31-year-old appears to be a lock for at least a five-year deal, with a chance for a sixth if enough teams get involved, and an annual salary in the $25 million neighborhood.
Early Rumblings
"I've said it before: My intentions, of course, are to be here for three years, and if I can spend the rest of my career with the Mets I would," Cespedes told Mike Puma of the New York Post in August.
Maybe he was telling the truth, but that didn't stop him from opting out.
The Mets relied heavily on him as their primary run producer and would presumably love to have him back. They won't be waiting around until late January for him to make a decision this time around, though, at least not according to what general manager Sandy Alderson told Adam Rubin of ESPN.com:
"I think realistically, from our standpoint this year, things will probably have to resolve themselves a lot sooner than they did last year. But it’s hard to predict where things will go. Things could go quickly. Things could linger. But certainly, from our standpoint, between now and the winter meetings, and through the end of the winter meetings, would be the right time to get some of these issues resolved. But that doesn’t mean it will happen.
"
If the Mets can't get a deal done quickly, the Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants and Washington Nationals could emerge as his primary suitors, according to Puma.
RP Aroldis Chapman
2 of 10
2016 Stats
| 59 | 4-1 | 36/39 | 1.55 | 0.862 | 18 | 90 | 58.0 | 2.5 |
Free-Agency Outlook
The richest contract in MLB history for a relief pitcher is the four-year, $50 million deal Jonathan Papelbon inked in 2011 with the Philadelphia Phillies, which eventually turned into a five-year, $61 million pact when his fifth-year option vested.
Aroldis Chapman is one of a trio of free-agent relievers likely to blow past that total this offseason.
Going beyond four years is risky with a reliever, but considering he's still only 28 years old and has been durable, someone might be willing to tack on a fifth season.
Regardless, he'll command an annual salary north of $15 million.
Early Rumblings
A reunion with the Chicago Cubs is still a possibility for Chapman, but a return to the New York Yankees might be even more likely.
"General manager Brian Cashman said Monday that he has reached out to Chapman's agent—along with the agents for several other free agents—as the baseball offseason kicked off with the start of the general managers' meetings," wrote Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News.
The Los Angeles Dodgers, Giants and Nationals are the other big-market teams expected to pursue a top-tier closer, so they are worth keeping an eye on as well.
CF Ian Desmond
3 of 10
2016 Stats
Free-Agency Outlook
Ian Desmond had a hard time finding a job last winter, finally agreeing to a one-year, $8 million deal with the Texas Rangers in February.
That came on the heels of a disappointing contract year with the Nationals that saw him hit .233 with a .674 OPS.
This time around, he's a much more appealing target.
The 31-year-old is fresh off the fourth 20/20 season of his career and carries newfound versatility after shifting to the outfield and eventually settling in as the everyday center fielder in Texas.
A four-year deal should be within reach, and while he may not surpass the $17.2 million qualifying offer in terms of annual value, something in the $15 million per year range seems reasonable.
Early Rumblings
Jon Morosi of Fox Sports tweeted on Tuesday that the Baltimore Orioles are interested in Desmond and would use him at a corner outfield spot with Adam Jones entrenched in center field.
A corner outfielder is a clear need for the O's, with Hyun Soo Kim, Joey Rickard and Dariel Alvarez representing the best in-house options.
Desmond is also a candidate to return to the Rangers, according to Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram, as is August addition Carlos Gomez.
As one of the few center field-capable players on the market, expect a number of teams to check in.
.png?w=256)
1B Edwin Encarnacion
4 of 10
2016 Stats
Free-Agency Outlook
By nearly any statistical measure, Edwin Encarnacion has been one of the game's most dangerous sluggers over the past five seasons.
During that span, he ranks fifth in slugging (.544), sixth in OPS (.912), second in home runs (193) and second in RBI (550), and it was business as usual in 2016.
The 33-year-old is never going to win a Gold Glove, but he's a better defender than he gets credit for at first base. He checked in with zero DRS and a 3.5 UZR/150 in 636.1 innings at the position in 2016, and that could be enough for his market to expand into the National League.
Encarnacion is seeking a five-year, $125 million deal, according to Rick Westhead of TSN, but four years and an annual salary in the $22-23 million neighborhood might be where he ends up.
Early Rumblings
The Blue Jays made a "big push" early to re-sign the slugger, but Toronto's unwillingness to go to five years makes it unlikely an early deal will happen, according to Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball.
Considering the expected level of interest, Encarnacion has every reason to wait and see how his market shapes up.
His agent, Paul Kinzer, expects as many as 11 teams to be in the running, according to Westhead.
"Both Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion envision the Red Sox as a possible winter landing spot, provided David Ortiz really does go through with his plan to retire," Heyman wrote in June.
The Red Sox have always looked like an obvious landing spot, as they seek a replacement for Ortiz's big bat.
CF Dexter Fowler
5 of 10
2016 Stats
Free-Agency Outlook
Dexter Fowler found a limited market for his services in a deep crop of free-agent outfielders last winter, eventually returning to the Cubs on a one-year deal that included a mutual option.
Fowler declined that option—which was for $9 million—as he enters the market again with significantly improved earning power.
He posted a .250/.346/.411 line with a 2.2 WAR in 2015, and he saw those numbers spike across the board this season, most notably with a .393 on-base percentage that ranked sixth in the NL and a 4.2 WAR.
The 30-year-old also graded out much better defensively, following up his minus-12 DRS in 2015 with one DRS in his second season in Chicago.
Fowler is another player who seems like a safe bet for a four-year deal, and don't be surprised if he doubles his $8 million base salary from this past season.
Early Rumblings
Fowler will reject his qualifying offer, but a return to the Cubs is not off the table.
"I'm definitely going to be a free agent, but hopefully it happens a little bit quicker than last year," Fowler said on SportsCenter, per ESPN.com news services. "You can't control what goes on, but I loved my time in Chicago and I'm definitely not counting them out, but we'll see what God has planned for us now."
Shi Davidi of Sportsnet identified the Blue Jays as a likely suitor and good fit for Fowler, as they have holes to fill in the outfield and atop the lineup.
Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors list the Cardinals, Nationals, Blue Jays, Rangers, White Sox, Indians, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Giants and Mariners as teams that could all have interest in Fowler, predicting a four-year, $64 million deal from the Cardinals.
SP Jeremy Hellickson
6 of 10
2016 Stats
Free-Agency Outlook
All it cost the Phillies to acquire Jeremy Hellickson from the Diamondbacks last offseason was pitching prospect Sam McWilliams, who ranks as the No. 26 prospect in the Arizona farm system, per MLB.com.
Now Hellickson finds himself as one of the top starting pitching options on the free-agent market and the recipient of a qualifying offer.
The 2016 season was an impressive career renaissance for the former American League Rookie of the Year, and seeing as he'll turn 30 shortly after Opening Day, he's a more appealing long-term investment than 36-year-old Rich Hill.
Hellickson should be a lock for four years and an annual salary of at least $15 million, and it wouldn't be surprising to see that number climb if a bidding war breaks out on the barren wasteland that is the starting pitching market.
Early Rumblings
It seems unlikely given his earning power, but Hellickson has not ruled out accepting his qualifying offer, per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com.
"I mean, I definitely could see it," he said of accepting the $17.2 million, one-year deal following his final start.
But when a potential multiyear deal on the open market came up, he said, "Yeah, I would love that actually a little bit more."
Despite being one of the most pitching-needy teams and showing interest in July, per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, the Miami Marlins probably don't have the financial flexibility to sign Hellickson, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.
The Atlanta Braves are known to be looking to add two starting pitchers this winter, per David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, while the Rangers could also be a fit with a clear need for a third reliable starter behind Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish.
SP Rich Hill
7 of 10
2016 Stats
Free-Agency Outlook
It's not often that a player signs the most lucrative contract of his career ahead of his age-37 season. Then again, Rich Hill is not your average MLB player.
Two years ago, Hill was forced to settle for a minor league deal with the Nationals, and by July, he was pitching in an independent league. A strong finish to the campaign after Boston scooped him up earned him a one-year, $6 million deal from the Oakland Athletics last offseason, and that proved to be a steal.
Hill missed roughly two months with a groin injury and a blister problem, but he was brilliant in the 20 starts he made, posting a 2.12 ERA, 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings and strong peripherals across the board for both Oakland and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Despite his age, someone will give Hill three years, and $45 million is probably his contract floor.
Early Rumblings
The Yankees plan to reach out to Hill, according to Brendan Kuty of NJ.com.
Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia and Michael Pineda are locked into three rotation spots, but as things stand, it would likely be Bryan Mitchell and Chad Green rounding out the rotation.
The Dodgers are also expected to make an effort to re-sign him despite what appears to be solid depth in the starting rotation, per Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times.
Kenta Maeda, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, Alex Wood and 2016 rookies Julio Urias, Jose De Leon, Ross Stripling and Brock Stewart are all in-house rotation candidates, but Hill would slot in nicely as the No. 2 starter behind ace Clayton Kershaw.
RP Kenley Jansen
8 of 10
2016 Stats
| 71 | 3-2 | 47/53 | 1.83 | 0.67 | 11 | 104 | 68.2 | 2.5 |
Free-Agency Outlook
A converted catcher, Kenley Jansen has developed into one of the game's elite closers on the strength of his overpowering cut fastball.
The 29-year-old carries a 2.20 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 13.9 K/9 over 409 career appearances, and he's saved at least 35 games in each of the past three seasons.
He, too, figures to surpass the current record deal for a relief pitcher, and it will be interesting to see who sets the market between him and Aroldis Chapman.
Expect four years and at least $60 million.
Early Rumblings
"The Dodgers understand the value of the closer, so expect them to make a nice attempt to bring back Jansen," Jon Heyman wrote.
However, the Dodgers are also expected to pursue Chapman, per Andy McCullough. It remains to be seen if they'd be willing to shell out the money it takes to sign both bullpen aces.
Jansen has been upfront about his approach to free agency, as former Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis told Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports:
"Kenley’s been unabashed about his free agency. He’s been the most open guy to talk about free agency that I think I’ve ever played with. He’s very excited, really looking forward to the process.
He’s kind of Zack Greinke-esque – the highest bidder gets me. He’s like, 'This is my one chance to get paid. I’ve earned the right to go and get the highest contract I can get.'
"
Let the bidding commence.
1B/OF Mark Trumbo
9 of 10
2016 Stats
Free-Agency Outlook
The Orioles acquired Mark Trumbo from the Seattle Mariners last offseason in what amounted to a salary dump, taking on his $9.15 million salary and sending backup catcher Steve Clevenger the other way.
That turned out to be perhaps the biggest steal of the winter, as Trumbo went on to lead the AL with 47 home runs while earning his second All-Star appearance.
Make no mistake: The 30-year-old is a one-dimensional player.
He's a liability defensively, strikes out a ton, clogs up the bases and has below-average on-base skills with a career .303 OBP.
There's no questioning his power, though, and right-handed pop is always in demand.
Given his age, limited skill set and with a qualifying offer attached, the market could be slow to develop for Trumbo. However, he should be able to get at least three years at $15 million-plus per season.
Early Rumblings
Trumbo will be one of the most polarizing free agents of the offseason.
He's an obvious fallback option for teams that miss out on signing Edwin Encarnacion, but those clubs might prefer spending less on someone like Carlos Beltran, Kendrys Morales and Brandon Moss, who could all fill a similar role.
At this point, there's not much in the way of rumors regarding a potential landing spot, and that could remain the case well into the offseason.
Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Jeff Todd suggest the Orioles, Red Sox, Rangers, A’s, Giants and Rockies as the best fits, predicting a reunion with the O's on a four-year, $60 million deal.
3B Justin Turner
10 of 10
2016 Stats
Free-Agency Outlook
Justin Turner went from non-tendered by the Mets following the 2013 campaign to legitimate stardom with the Dodgers in 2016.
In what was his first season topping 500 plate appearances, Turner posted an .832 OPS with 27 home runs and 90 RBI while playing stellar defense at third base.
His performance was even more impressive when you consider he struggled over the first two months of the season, as he posted an .898 OPS with 24 home runs and 74 RBI after June 1.
The third base market is virtually nonexistent behind Turner, as Luis Valbuena and Aaron Hill represent the only other viable options.
That should help the 31-year-old secure a five-year deal, and he could command an annual salary in the $18 million range.
Early Rumblings
Unless the Dodgers have an alternate plan in place, it's hard to see them letting Turner walk.
"They love Justin Turner, too, but Dodgers people are very cognizant of age generally, so if someone blows him away, it’s no certainty they’ll match it. He does prefer to stay, however," Jon Heyman wrote.
If the Tampa Bay Rays decide to shop Evan Longoria, he could emerge as a target for the Dodgers, potentially reuniting him with president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman.
If that doesn't happen, though, expect the Dodgers to pay Turner.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
.png?w=480)
