How All 30 MLB Teams Rank as Potential Free-Agent Destinations This Winter
Imagine, if you will, that you are an agent. Your client, Player X, is a free agent and has drawn offers from each of MLB's 30 teams. (Yes, this never happens in real life, but play along.) All of the offers are similar.
How do you advise your client to make the best possible decision?
You prepare a detailed report for him, taking these factors into account:
- Atmosphere (1-5): How does this team draw at home? Those numbers, courtesy of ESPN.com, and how rabid a fanbase is thought to be (along with the market a team plays in) all contribute to this score.
- Payroll (1-5): Can this team afford to surround your client with quality teammates? Or will he be the lone shining star on a sinking ship? Payroll information comes courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
- 2017 Outlook (1-10): Is this team poised to contend next season?
- Long-Term Outlook (1-10): What sort of shape is this team's farm system in? (Rankings via Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter.) Is there flexibility in the payroll on the horizon?
- Tiebreaker: If two or more teams graded out the same, the tiebreakers were their scores in long-term outlook, followed by 2017 outlook, payroll and atmosphere.
With those four areas in mind, here is a look at which MLB team is the best free-agent destination this winter.
30. Tampa Bay Rays (2016 Rank: 24)
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Atmosphere: 1/5
If aliens landed at Tropicana Field, would anyone know? Tampa Bay has ranked last in home attendance in each of the past five years and hasn't averaged more than 20,000 fans per game since 2010. No one likes playing in front of empty seats.
Payroll: 1/5
The Rays are great at developing talent but, with few exceptions, are unable to keep those players for the long haul due to their tenuous financial situation. Spending lavishly on free agents isn't an option.
2017 Outlook: 5/10
It's never wise to underestimate Tampa Bay, which always seems to rise to the occasion when it's not considered a legitimate contender. That said, the club is coming off a 94-loss season—its third consecutive losing year—and may not be able to keep up with the rest of the American League East as it improves this winter.
Long-Term Outlook: 5/10
So long as Tampa Bay continues to do a good job of scouting amateur talent, the Rays will consistently have a pipeline that keeps them relevant. But until the team's stadium situation is resolved—and ownership makes a real investment in the team—optimism will remain low.
Total Score: 12/30
29. Oakland Athletics (2016 Rank: 25)
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Atmosphere: 1/5
Free agents who come to Oakland should insist upon having complimentary hazmat suits provided for them before each home game, as sewage routinely floods the route players have to traverse from the field to the clubhouse. It doesn't help that the A's don't draw many fans to the cavernous Oakland Coliseum.
Payroll: 2/5
Oakland isn't going to be in on the top free agents available, but the team has shown in the past that it'll make moderate investments when it believe it's the right move. Signing Ryan Madson last year (three years, $22 million) and Yoenis Cespedes back in 2012 (four years, $36 million) is proof of that.
2017 Outlook: 5/10
The A's are coming off their second consecutive 90-loss season but have some productive bats and a slew of young pitching, led by ace Sonny Gray, who is coming off a disastrous season. It's hard to call it a contender in the AL West, but Oakland might not be as bad as some people think it'll be.
Long-Term Outlook: 5/10
There's some intriguing young talent down on the farm, but the team's finances and stadium situation make it impossible to get excited about the team's long-term future.
Total Score: 13/30
28. Cincinnati Reds (2016 Rank: 23)
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Atmosphere: 4/5
Cincinnati doesn't draw big crowds, but Great American Ballpark has been lauded by those who do show up as one of the game's premier destinations, a place that can get loud when there's a packed house.
Payroll: 2/5
The Reds have only three players signed through 2019, but two of them, Homer Bailey and Joey Votto, carry hefty salaries that, when combined, will cost the club more than $40 million annually. With the team rebuilding, Cincinnati isn't going to be looking to add substantial payroll.
2017 Outlook: 1/10
Even if the team improves baseball's worst bullpen during the offseason, the Reds aren't in a position to contend with the likes of the Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central.
Long-Term Outlook: 6/10
Most of Cincinnati's best prospects are still a few years away from contributing. Should they pan out, however, the Reds may be able to fill in the missing pieces with reasonably priced free-agent additions to once again return to the land of contenders.
Total Score: 13/30
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27. Arizona Diamondbacks (2016 Rank: 9)
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Atmosphere: 2/5
Arizona played in front of a half-filled Chase Field most of the time, ranking 21st in baseball at just over 25,000 fans per home game. Part of the problem has to do with the on-field product, but fans could've also been turned off by the team's statement about a lack of improvements (which would be publicly funded) and veiled threats of a potential move elsewhere back in spring training.
Payroll: 4/5
With only Zack Greinke, Paul Goldschmidt and Yasmany Tomas under contract past the 2017 season, Arizona will have plenty of payroll flexibility moving forward. We know the team isn't afraid of spending lavishly on free agents, given the six-year, $206.5 million deal it inked Greinke to last December.
That said, the Diamondbacks are likely to be semi-cautious with that flexibility, knowing that extensions for Goldschmidt, Jean Segura and others will need to be worked out in the next few years.
2017 Outlook: 4/10
With a trio of former Boston Red Sox employees—Mike Hazen (general manager), Amiel Sawdaye (assistant GM) and Torey Lovullo (manager)—now forming Arizona's new leadership group, there's reason for optimism that the team is headed in the right direction.
That said, until we see what changes that trio makes over the winter, it's hard to get too excited about the team's chances in 2017. But things should be better than they were in 2016, with full seasons from A.J. Pollock and Greinke having major impacts at the top of the lineup and in the rotation, respectively.
Still, it's hard to look at the Diamondbacks as anything but a fringe contender at this point.
Long-Term Outlook: 4/10
As previously noted, the team will have plenty of payroll flexibility moving forward. That's important, as the farm system is lacking in upper-echelon talent, landing at No. 28 in Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter's rankings.
Total Score: 14/30
26. Chicago White Sox (2016 Rank: 29)
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Atmosphere: 2/5
U.S. Cellular Field is a fine ballpark, but fans don't come out en masse to Chicago's South Side.
The White Sox have been among the five lowest-drawing teams at home in each of the past three years and haven't been out of the bottom third of baseball in home attendance since 2010, when they ranked 17th.
Payroll: 3/5
Chicago isn't afraid to spend, with an Opening Day payroll in excess of $100 million more often than not, but uncertainty surrounding the team's direction makes the White Sox a risky proposition for any free agent to consider.
2017 Outlook: 5/10
Chicago could be in store for a franchise-changing offseason, with trade speculation swirling around nearly every veteran on the roster, including front-line starters Chris Sale and Jose Quintana. Until we see what the team does, an accurate guesstimate, much less assessment, can't be made.
Long-Term Outlook: 5/10
With questions about how the roster will be constructed and a mediocre farm system, the current outlook for the White Sox is bleak. Should they sell off pieces and rebuild the farm system, this score would jump up dramatically.
Total Score: 15/30
25. Miami Marlins (2016 Rank: 26)
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Atmosphere: 3/5
Marlins Park is a beautiful facility. Unfortunately, few come out on a daily basis to take it all in, as only three teams drew smaller crowds at home than Miami. The city and market, however, are major draws for potential free agents.
Payroll: 2/5
That lack of attendance contributes to a continued lack of revenue, something team president David Samson believes is only a temporary issue.
"Right now, we are last in the league in revenue, and that’s not where Miami should be," Samson told the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson in March. "I don’t expect that to continue."
2017 Outlook: 5/10
The tragic death of ace Jose Fernandez leaves a gaping hole not only in Miami's rotation, but in the clubhouse as well. He's irreplaceable. While the Marlins still have plenty of talent in their lineup, the pitching staff—especially the rotation—could be the team's undoing.
Long-Term Outlook: 6/10
Miami doesn't have a great farm system, which is a problem since the team has just four players signed through at least 2020. That could signal the departure of Giancarlo Stanton, who is able to opt out of his deal after that campaign comes to an end.
If the team's revenue stream increases, as Samson believes it will, the Marlins may be able to field a competitive team.
Total Score: 16/30
24. Baltimore Orioles (2016 Rank: 19)
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Atmosphere: 3/5
Oriole Park at Camden Yards remains a draw, but Baltimore isn't behind the team like it used to be. Lackluster home attendance—the Orioles ranked 20th in MLB—had All-Star center fielder Adam Jones venting in late September, per ESPN.com's Eddie Matz.
"I'd say that it's just, it's a little, what's the right word to say it's a little, you know, not sad, just like, eerie, a little bit.
We grind and grind and grind. We understand, there's a lot that that factors into it. Ticket prices being higher, although you can bring in food and beverages. Marketing and promotions, I'm sure they're not the best. I get all that. I'm just saying, the city wanted a winner -- the last five years we got 'em a winner. I don't if know if they've gotten complacent already on us winning. I wish they haven't. I hope they haven't. Because winning is fun every single year, and being in this race is exciting every single year. So to the ones that come every night, thank you with open arms.
"
Not exactly something a potential free-agent addition wants to hear from one of the team's longest-tenured and most popular players.
Payroll: 3/5
Chris Davis and Darren O'Day are the only deals Baltimore has on the books after 2018, but the team has to try to re-sign Mark Trumbo, who led baseball in home runs, this winter and will soon need to try to work out extensions with Zach Britton and Manny Machado. None of that's going to be cheap.
The continuing legal battle between the Orioles and Washington Nationals over television revenue could always play a factor in how much salary the team is able to add.
It's also possible that the Orioles simply may not want to spend lavishly after getting mediocre results from the likes of Ubaldo Jimenez and Yovani Gallardo, two of its more recent high-priced, free-agent additions.
2017 Outlook: 7/10
Buck Showalter, despite the justified criticism he received for not using Britton in the team's AL Wild Card Game loss to the Toronto Blue Jays, remains one of the game's premier managers, someone who will keep the Orioles in contention in 2017.
With the New York Yankees retooling, the Rays rebuilding and the Blue Jays faced with a potential massive free-agent defection this winter, the Orioles could enter the season as the second-best team in the AL East.
Long-Term Outlook: 4/10
A mediocre farm system and legitimate questions about whether the team can keep Machado around past 2018 make the Orioles a club that's built to win now and that has a cloudy long-term outlook.
Total Score: 17/30
23. Minnesota Twins (2016 Rank: 17)
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Atmosphere: 2/5
Target Field is one of baseball's nicest new ballparks, but an open-air stadium in Minnesota? It's frickin' freezing up there in April, Mr. Bigglesworth! That and the team's on-field struggles help to explain why the Twins failed to crack 2 million in total home attendance for the first time since 2004.
Payroll: 3/5
The Twins haven't shied away from tossing money at free agents in recent years, spending nearly $100 million combined to sign Ricky Nolasco and Ervin Santana. With only two players signed past 2018, Minnesota could have money to spend once again.
2017 Outlook: 5/10
A lack of quality pitching will keep the Twins from contending, but the continued development of youngsters Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano would give the team a solid foundation to build around.
Long-Term Outlook: 7/10
With Berrios, Buxton, Sano and others already in the big leagues, Minnesota's farm system isn't as strong as it once was.
But there's still help on the way, and with the club's upcoming payroll flexibility, the team's new leadership (chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine) will be able to build the club as it sees fit.
Total Score: 17/30
22. Detroit Tigers (2016 Rank: 21)
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Atmosphere: 4/5
A perennial contender that has posted a losing record at Comerica Park only once since 2010, Detroit routinely plays in front of more than 30,000 fans. While the on-field product is a big reason for that, that there are no obstructed view seats, like there were at the old Tiger Stadium, helps.
Payroll: 3/5
Back in October, general manager Al Avila explained to reporters, including Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press, that one of his goals this winter was to shed payroll and get away from the team's habit of spending lavishly on big-time free agents.
2017 Outlook: 6/10
It's impossible to give the Tigers an accurate grade heading into 2017 because we don't know which players will still be around. As MLive.com's Evan Woodberry reported, Avila told MLB Network he is willing to listen to offers on all his veteran players, including Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander.
That said, a complete teardown is unlikely, which will leave the Tigers with enough talent to at least remain a fringe contender, if not more.
Long-Term Outlook: 5/10
Detroit has a slew of young pitching talent but lacks any real impact position players down on the farm. That's a problem for a veteran-laden club. If Avila is able to inject the organization with young, controllable talent while not giving up the youth already in place, it'd be easier to get excited about the future.
Total Score: 18/30
21. Pittsburgh Pirates (2016 Rank: 6)
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Atmosphere: 3/5
Average crowds roll into Pittsburgh's PNC Park most days, but you need only ask Johnny Cueto how imposing the atmosphere gets when the stands are packed out with fans adorned in black and gold.
Payroll: 2/5
Pittsburgh embraces the small-market mentality better than many teams, building from within and only venturing into the free-agent market to complement its home-grown talent, not find building blocks.
2017 Outlook: 6/10
The Pirates will remain competitive, but there are legitimate questions that need to be answered. Will Andrew McCutchen still be a Pirate, and can he rebound from a career-worst year? How will a (mostly) inexperienced rotation hold up over the course of a full season? Things could go well—or sour—quickly.
Long-Term Outlook: 7/10
That a number of the team's best pitching prospects graduated to the big leagues last season wasn't enough to knock Pittsburgh's farm system out of MLB's top 10, and stud outfielders Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco are signed through at least 2020.
But with the team's recent success, the back end of that pipeline could start to run dry, which along with the team's financial limitations, could become a major problem down the line.
Total Score: 18/30
20. San Diego Padres (2016 Rank: 20)
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Atmosphere: 3/5
San Diego draws consistent crowds to Petco Park despite the team's on-field struggles and lack of a true superstar attraction.
Payroll: 2/5
San Diego has been in salary-shedding mode since last winter but heads into 2017 with nearly $33 million committed to players who are no longer on the team. That's going to negatively impact the team's ability to add significant pieces through free agency this winter.
2017 Outlook: 4/10
Having a healthy Tyson Ross atop the rotation will help San Diego every fifth day in 2017, but an otherwise mediocre starting staff and streaky offense isn't going to put the Padres back in contention with the rest of the National League West.
Long-Term Outlook: 9/10
Aside from outfield prospects Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe, San Diego's best young talent is still at least another year away from contributing. With a farm system that sits just outside the top 10, that bodes well for the team's future.
Total Score: 18/30
19. Kansas City Royals (2016 Rank: 13)
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Atmosphere: 4/5
Fans continued to come out to Kauffman Stadium despite the knowledge that Kansas City was unlikely to defend its World Series crown heading into 2016. Only 11 teams drew bigger crowds than the Royals did last season.
Payroll: 3/5
After opening the 2016 season with a team-record $131 million payroll, general manager Dayton Moore said the team's spending would "regress a little bit [in 2017]," per the Kansas City Star's Rustin Dodd.
That's the opposite of putting out a welcome mat for potential free-agent additions.
2017 Outlook: 7/10
This is the last season the Royals will have its core—Lorenzo Cain, Wade Davis, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas—in the same clubhouse as all four are eligible for free agency after the season. A free agent could be swayed by that and join the club on a one-year deal as it tries to make one more run at a World Series crown.
Long-Term Outlook: 5/10
With the core's uncertain future and a farm system that was decimated by trades for Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist two years ago, which helped fuel the team's run to October glory, there are major questions about the team's ability to remain competitive past the upcoming season.
Total Score: 19/30
18. Philadelphia Phillies (2016 Rank: 28)
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Atmosphere: 3/5
Say what you will about Philadelphia sports fans, but they're a passionate bunch that support their teams when things are on the upswing. Unfortunately for the rebuilding Phillies, that's meant sparse crowds at Citizens Bank Park as the club tries to find its way.
Payroll: 3/5
Spending lavishly on free agents doesn't fit with the current rebuilding going on, but the Phillies have never been shy about throwing cash at free agents. With no long-term financial commitments, Philadelphia has the financial freedom to add salary as it sees fit.
2017 Outlook: 5/10
Philadelphia got off to a surprisingly slow start in 2016 but fell apart shortly thereafter due to a lack of offense. But youngsters Jerad Eickhoff, Aaron Nola and Vince Velasquez give the team the makings of a terrific trio atop the rotation, something most rebuilding teams can't claim.
Long-Term Outlook: 8/10
A deep farm system and shrinking payroll have the Phillies well-positioned to be major players in free agency whenever the team decides the time is right.
Total Score: 19/30
17. Los Angeles Angels (2016 Rank: 14)
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Atmosphere: 4/5
Even if the only reason fans come out to Angel Stadium is to watch Mike Trout do Mike Trout things, that's enough to create a terrific atmosphere at the ballpark. In 2016, only one American League team—the New York Yankees—averaged a bigger home crowd than Los Angeles' 37,236 fans per game.
Payroll: 4/5
While he doesn't want to pay the luxury tax, owner Arte Moreno has no problem making significant investments in free agents to try and help bring a World Series championship to the Angels.
2017 Outlook: 6/10
Injuries decimated the team's starting rotation early in 2016, leaving the Angels with little chance to contend. Whether the team adds the necessary depth to guard against a repeat of such bad luck will ultimately dictate how successful they are in 2017.
Long-Term Outlook: 6/10
The farm system is one of baseball's worst, but the team only has long-term commitments to three players: Albert Pujols, Andrelton Simmons and Trout. They'll have plenty of financial wiggle room to add pieces over the next few years.
Total Score: 20/30
16. New York Mets (2016 Rank: 12)
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Atmosphere: 4/5
Citi Field is the more welcoming of New York's new baseball cathedrals, with fans feeling much closer to the action and, as a result, the park sounding far louder than its more famous counterpart in the Bronx. Mets fans don't always pack the place out, but there's an impressive crowd more nights than not.
Payroll: 4/5
For all the deserved criticism the Wilpon Family receives, Mets ownership did sign off on a $75 million deal for Yoenis Cespedes last winter and had no problem giving Curtis Granderson $60 million in 2014.
Still, you can't shake the notion that the Mets operate more like a small-market club than one that has its own cable network and plays in the world's biggest market.
2017 Outlook: 7/10
Can the team's remarkable rotation stay healthy? Will Yoenis Cespedes be back? Those are two major questions that need to be answered before anyone can accurately predict the team's outlook for next season.
That said, with Atlanta and Philadelphia rebuilding and Miami on the fringe of contention, the Mets can't help but hang with Washington in the division race—at least for a little while.
Long-Term Outlook: 6/10
Will they keep their rotation together? Or will they let the likes of Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey walk when their contracts are up? Those questions, along with a so-so farm system and mercurial ownership skews the team's long-term forecast.
Total Score: 21/30
15. Atlanta Braves (2016 Rank: 22)
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Atmosphere: 3/5
Atlanta didn't come out in droves to see Turner Field off, with the Braves ranking 22nd in home attendance, drawing just under 25,000 fans per game. But a strong finish to the season, the promise of an active offseason and the team set to move into its new digs—SunTrust Park—attendance could quickly rise.
Payroll: 5/5
While answering fans' questions via the team's official Twitter account in September, general manager John Coppolella said the team "will be active on the free-agent market with more money to spend than in the past 10 years" when asked about potential offseason additions.
There are few things a team could say that would be more enticing to a free agent.
2017 Outlook: 5/10
Atlanta played winning baseball (37-35) after the All-Star break and went 59-65 under interim manager Brian Snitker, who had the interim tag removed shortly after the regular season ended.
Dansby Swanson looks like the next big thing at shortstop, Freddie Freeman and Matt Kemp were highly productive in the middle of the lineup and the Braves have enough secondary pieces to field a not-so-terrible offense.
Pitching will determine just how successful 2017 will be in Atlanta, with Julio Teheran and a handful of relievers the only members of the pitching staff who weren't completely ineffective in 2016.
Long-Term Outlook: 7/10
With baseball's second-best farm system, per Reuter, some young pieces already in place, a manager who has things moving in the right direction and, apparently, money to burn, there's more reason for optimism in Atlanta than there has been for years.
Total Score: 20/30
14. Milwaukee Brewers (2016 Rank: 30)
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Atmosphere: 4/5
Sausage races, tailgates and fans who come to the ballpark no matter how bad the Brewers may be makes for an almost college-like atmosphere at Milwaukee's Miller Park—and a fun place to play.
Payroll: 3/5
Lavish free-agent spending sprees are never going to be a major part of how the Brewers operate, especially now, with the club rebuilding, but owner Mark Attanasio isn't afraid to splurge every once in a while.
2017 Outlook: 4/10
Full seasons from prospects Orlando Arcia and Kyle Davies give Brewers fans something to look forward to in 2017, but the roster could look drastically different than it did a year ago.
Ryan Braun and Chris Carter are among the veterans who could be traded, leaving the team with less productive replacements as the rebuilding process continues.
Long-Term Outlook: 9/10
With Arcia and Davies already in the big leagues and one of baseball's deepest and most talented farm systems, Milwaukee is positioning itself to be back in contention sooner rather than later.
Total Score: 20/30
13. Seattle Mariners (2016 Rank: 18)
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Atmosphere: 3/5
Safeco Field is a fantastic place to catch a game, but Seattle hasn't cracked baseball's top half in home attendance since 2006, routinely checking in with one of the 10 lowest-average home crowds in nearly every season since.
Payroll: 4/5
While new ownership inherited Seattle's team-record $142 million Opening Day payroll in 2016, John Stanton and his partners have given no indication that they'll be slashing payroll anytime soon. The Mariners figure to spend in free agency when needed as they have in the past.
2017 Outlook: 7/10
Most of Seattle's 86-win team from a season ago returns in 2017, with the hope that full, healthy seasons from Felix Hernandez, James Paxton and Taijuan Walker can give the pitching staff (and the team) the boost it needs to get over the hump and into the playoffs for the first time since 2001.
Long-Term Outlook: 7/10
With Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager the team's only commitments past the 2019 season, the Mariners should have plenty of financial freedom moving forward. That's important, as the farm system is lacking in high-end talent; outside help will need to be brought in.
Total Score: 21/30
12. San Francisco Giants (2016 Rank: 11 )
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Atmosphere: 5/5
A packed house taking in one of the most scenic views in baseball greets the San Francisco Giants most nights, creating an electric atmosphere players can't help but feel energized by.
Payroll: 5/5
The Giants spent nearly $200 million on bolstering its starting rotation last winter by signing Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. This is a team that has no problem dishing out lucrative deals to free agents who can help its cause.
2017 Outlook: 7/10
The Giants have work to do before we can accurately gauge their prospects for next season, namely rebuilding their bullpen and finding a full-time outfielder to replace the platoon of Gregor Blanco and Angel Pagan, who are both free agents.
Long-Term Outlook: 6/10
San Francisco has more than $75 million committed to just four players through 2021 and has dipped into its farm system to facilitate in-season trades. That leaves the team in a bit of a sketchy position when it comes to its long-term outlook.
Total Score: 23/30
11. Texas Rangers (2016 Rank: 15)
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Atmosphere: 4/5
Globe Life Park in Arlington has been an impenetrable fortress for the opposition lately, with Texas posting just one losing record at home since 2009, giving the more than 33,000 fans who come out to support their team something to cheer for on a nightly basis.
Payroll: 5/5
Texas has never shied away from signing high-priced free agents—just ask Shin-Soo Choo—and that's unlikely to change this offseason, with the club having a number of holes it needs to fill.
2017 Outlook: 7/10
Can GM Jon Daniels bolster the team's starting rotation and the back end of the bullpen? Will Ian Desmond and/or Carlos Gomez return? The Rangers are contenders as presently constituted, but have work to do if they hope to successfully defend their AL West division crown.
Long-Term Outlook: 7/10
Texas has traded away the bulk of its best prospects over the past few years but still has some intriguing young talent, including slugger Joey Gallo and Jurickson Profar, who at one time was considered the best prospect in all of baseball.
So long as the team continues to spend to supplement the roster, the Rangers will contend.
Total Score: 23/30
10. Cleveland Indians (2016 Rank: 16)
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Atmosphere: 3/5
As we saw throughout the playoffs, Progressive Field can be an electric place to play when the fans show up. Problem is, they don't flock to the park during the regular season, with the Cleveland Indians drawing baseball's third-lowest average home crowd in 2016.
Payroll: 3/5
It's inevitable the Indians will crack the $100 million threshold for the first time in 2017, but that'll be because of raises through arbitration and re-signing their own free agents. Players from other teams looking to join the Tribe will have to be willing to take less than other teams might be willing to offer.
2017 Outlook: 9/10
What's not to like? The Indians will return nearly all of their 2016 squad, will have a full season of Andrew Miller and, with a healthy Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Michael Brantley returning, they might be even better in 2017.
Long-Term Outlook: 8/10
Cleveland has only four players signed past 2018, so the roster could see some significant turnover, and the club paid a hefty prospect price to obtain Miller. Still, the Indians should be able to remain competitive for the foreseeable future.
Total Score: 23/30
9. St. Louis Cardinals (2016 Rank: 4)
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Atmosphere: 5/5
That St. Louis finished five games below .500 (38-43) at home and missed the playoffs in 2016 has more to do with a flawed roster than a lack of support, as the Cardinals routinely played in front of nearly packed houses, trailing only the Los Angeles Dodgers in average home attendance.
Payroll: 4/5
The Cardinals had a franchise-record $145 million Opening Day payroll in 2016, and while that figure seems likely to regress a bit heading into 2017, St. Louis can and will spend in free agency for the right player.
2017 Outlook: 7/10
Can the Cardinals fix their defense? Shore up their pitching staff? St. Louis is a contender in its current state, but how the team answers those questions this offseason will go a long way toward improving its outlook for next season.
Of course, sharing a division with the World Series winners, the Chicago Cubs, puts a damper on the outlook for every team in the National League Central.
Long-Term Outlook: 8/10
It looks like the Cardinals will have plenty of payroll flexibility in the years to come, which is a good thing as the club's farm system is average at best. They'll need to supplement the roster with talent from outside the organization as current deals expire.
Total Score: 24/30
8. Houston Astros (2016 Rank: 5)
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Atmosphere: 3/5
Houston doesn't draw big crowds to Minute Maid Park, but attendance is on the rise for the Astros, with the team's average home attendance jumping by nearly 2,000 fans per game from 2015 to 2016. That trend figures to continue.
Payroll: 5/5
The Astros want to add substantial payroll this offseason. according to MLB Network's Jon Morosi. How substantial, you ask?
Per Morosi, they've set their eyes on Miguel Cabrera, who is entering the second year of an eight-year, $248 million extension and Edwin Encarnacion, who will command more than $100 million as a free agent.
2017 Outlook: 7/10
Only a handful of teams can compete with Houston's collection of young, up-and-coming position players already in the big leagues, but questions about a starting rotation that underperformed badly in 2016 dampen the team's immediate outlook.
Long-Term Outlook: 9/10
The Astros still boast one of baseball's best farm systems despite dealing away some prospects and graduating others to the majors. Coupled with ownership's willingness to spend big for outside help, the forecast calls for years of contention.
Total Score: 24/30
7. Colorado Rockies (2016 Rank: 27 )
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Atmosphere: 4/5
Colorado has no problem drawing fans to Coors Field, sitting 10th in average home attendance last season, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a free-agent pitcher who truly wanted to call that hitter's paradise home.
Payroll: 5/5
Potential free-agent additions couldn't ask for a sweeter-sounding song than the one Rockies owner Dick Monfort sung as the team introduced Bud Black as its new manager. "Our payroll will be higher this year," Monfort told reporters, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. "It will be a [team] record this year."
2017 Outlook: 7/10
Offense is never an issue for the Rockies, pitching is. GM Jeff Birdich made it clear he's focused on improving that part of the club this winter while a guest on MLB Network Radio earlier this week. If the Rockies can add a quality arm or two who can keep the ball on the ground at home, they could surprise.
Long-Term Outlook: 8/10
Armed with a top-10 farm system, some quality pieces already in place in the big leagues and an owner who's willing to spend, the Rockies might not be that far off from cementing themselves as a legitimate contender.
Total Score: 24/30
6. Toronto Blue Jays (2016 Rank: 8)
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Atmosphere: 5/5
When it's packed out—which is more often than not—Rogers Centre is one of, if not, the loudest ballpark in all of baseball.
Payroll: 5/5
The Toronto Blue Jays have more than $107 million committed to just nine players heading into 2017—a number that doesn't include any of the potential arbitration raises players on the team's current roster have coming their way.
With both Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion free agents, whatever available funds the team has figures to be spent on trying to retain one of those sluggers.
2017 Outlook: 5/10
Bautista, Encarnacion and Michael Saunders are all free agents. Only one of the three figures to return. How the Blue Jays go about replacing the production lost by the other two needs to be known before a fair assessment of the team's 2017 chances can be made.
Long-Term Outlook: 9/10
Toronto's best young talent is still a year or two away from making an impact, and there are questions as to just how high their ceilings are.
With only J.A. Happ, Russell Martin and Troy Tulowitzki under contract for 2018, the Blue Jays could quickly become a team in flux if they fail to meet expectations once again in 2017.
Total Score: 24/30
5. New York Yankees (2016 Rank: 7)
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Atmosphere: 5/5
New York ranked sixth in home attendance, but any Yankees fan will tell you the new Yankee Stadium lacks the magic of the old ballpark on 161st and River Avenue. Fans aren't nearly as close to the field and, as a result, the place isn't nearly as loud. The market, however, has massive appeal.
Payroll: 5/5
The Yankees might be focused on reducing payroll and building from within these days, but the team's pockets remain deeper than most. If there's a free agent it wants, money will be no option.
2017 Outlook: 5/10
Gary Sanchez nearly put the Yankees on his back and carried them into the playoffs, and full seasons from fellow youngsters Greg Bird and Aaron Judge offer reasons for optimism. But major questions surrounding the pitching staff make it hard to consider the Yankees anything but a fringe contender right now.
Long-Term Outlook: 10/10
The Yankees have baseball's best farm system and a wealth of financial resources. This team is well positioned to return to its usual place among the best teams in baseball in the not-so-distant future.
Total Score: 25/30
4. Washington Nationals (2016 Rank: 10)
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Atmosphere: 4/5
A stadium in Washington D.C. wouldn't be complete without cherry trees on the concourse beyond the outfield wall, and more than 30,000 fans typically provide the Nationals with a steady stream of support.
Payroll: 4/5
Washington has had an Opening Day payroll above $100 million for four consecutive seasons and isn't afraid to add to it while the Hot Stove League is in session. Daniel Murphy and Max Scherzer represent two of the team's more recent notable free-agent additions.
2017 Outlook: 9/10
With Atlanta and Philadelphia still rebuilding and Miami trying to piece together a starting rotation, the New York Mets once again look like the only real competition Washington will face in the National League East. Watching Trea Turner over the course of a full season will be something to behold.
Long-Term Outlook: 9/10
Working out a long-term extension with Bryce Harper will eat up much of the team's future financial flexibility and very likely limit some of what Washington is able to do in free agency.
But the team has one of baseball's better farm systems, with high-end pitching (Erick Fedde, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez) and hitting (Carter Kieboom, Victor Robles and Juan Soto) waiting in the wings.
Total Score: 26/30
3. Boston Red Sox (2016 Rank: 3)
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Atmosphere: 5/5
Few cities are as passionate about its team than Boston, and Fenway Park remains one of the few true cathedrals left in baseball.
Payroll: 5/5
Not many teams can contend with Boston's deep pockets. Financial cost isn't going to deter the club from adding any free agent it targets.
2017 Outlook: 9/10
There are questions about the rotation and bullpen and its going to be very strange to see a Red Sox lineup without David Ortiz hitting cleanup, but the defending AL East champions remain one of the favorites to represent the AL in the World Series.
Long-Term Outlook: 9/10
Armed with one of baseball's best farm systems and deep pockets, along with a young core that's not only under team control but still coming into its prime, the Red Sox are set up to remain in contention for the better part of the next decade.
Total Score: 28/30
2. Chicago Cubs (2016 Rank: 1)
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Atmosphere: 5/5
Five million people showed up for Chicago's victory parade. Only four teams averaged more fans per home game than the Cubs. Like Fenway Park, Wrigley Field is one of the game's last remaining cathedrals. It's a place every free agent would love to call home.
Payroll: 4/5
The Cubs aren't afraid to spend big—see Jason Heyward's seven-year, $184 million deal last winter—but the defending World Series champs have only a few holes to fill. Unless you're talking about an elite free- agent closer, Chicago may not be willing to spend lavishly once again.
2017 Outlook: 10/10
What's not to like? Chicago's young core returns and figures to only get better as they get closer to the primes of their careers, while two-fifths of the NL Central (Cincinnati and Milwaukee) remains firmly in rebuilding mode. Pittsburgh and St. Louis both have issues to fix. Another division crown seems likely.
Long-Term Outlook: 9/10
The Cubs still have a deep farm system, an owner who's willing to spend when necessary and the mix of youth and veteran pieces to remain in contention for years to come. The only thing that keeps the Cubs from a perfect score are questions about the rotation two, three years down the line.
Total Score: 28/30
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (2016 Rank: 2)
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Atmosphere: 5/5
Dodgers fans might not love the cost and traffic of everyday life in Los Angeles, but they flock to Chavez Ravine in droves as no team drew bigger crowds at home than the Dodgers.
Payroll: 5/5
Los Angeles has had an Opening Day payroll over $200 million in each of the past four seasons, and that doesn't figure to change in 2017. Like the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, the Dodgers are one of the few teams for which a free-agent bidding war isn't much of a concern.
2017 Outlook: 8/10
Even if the Dodgers lose Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner in free agency, the team is too talented to not remain in contention next season. That said, how the team goes about not only replacing them—but improving elsewhere—will ultimately dictate just how rosy Los Angeles' outlook for 2017 actually is.
Long-Term Outlook: 10/10
Trades and promotions to the big leagues have weakened the farm system a bit, but it's still one of baseball's better talent pipelines.
There's plenty of young talent in the organization, with youngsters Joc Pederson, Corey Seager and Julio Urias already in the big leagues and the likes of Cody Bellinger and Jose De Leon on the way. Between that and the team's deep pockets, the Dodgers will be contenders for years to come.
Total Score: 28/30
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
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