NFL Predictions Week 9: Odds, Predictions and Advice for Ideal Underdogs

Those who want to square up with oddsmakers out of Las Vegas when it comes to NFL's Week 9 lines should know a thing or two about the underdog. 

The ultimate underdog, the Chicago Bears, capped off last week with one of the season's biggest upsets—an upheaval of the Minnesota Vikings, 20-10.

Upsets won't usually sniff such dramatic territory, but odds have a way of highlighting underdogs each week. Given the way the globe loves underdogs, it's easy to fall prey to rolling with teams with little chance to win.

Like a quality draft or deep ball, it's all about the execution. Let's look at the Week 9 slate and pick out the best underdogs.

NFL Week 9 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Atlanta at Tampa Bay	TB -1	51.5	ATL 33-24
Dallas at Cleveland	DAL -6.5	47	DAL 30-14
Pittsburgh at Baltimore	BAL -3	43	PIT 28-20
Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants	NYG -3	43	PHI 21-20
Detroit at Minnesota	MIN -6.5	41	MIN 27-23
N.Y. Jets at Miami	MIA -3	44	MIA 20-17
Jacksonville at Kansas City	KC -7.5	45.5	KC 33-20
New Orleans at San Francisco	NO -3	51	NO 27-20
Carolina at L.A. Rams	CAR -2	45	LA 23-20
Tennessee at San Diego	SD -5	47	SD 26-17
Indianapolis at Green Bay	GB -7	54	GB 30-17
Denver at Oakland	DEN -1	43.5	OAK 24-20
Buffalo at Seattle	SEA -7	44	SEA 24-21

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants (-3)

An NFC East battle can always go either way—especially this year.

Both the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants sit on 4-3 records. Both have taken wildly different routes to get there, though.

The Giants have won two in a row and claimed two consecutive victories to start the season, losing three games in between. Philadelphia has been all over the place, winning three, losing two and then alternating a win and a loss.

As the Record's Art Stapleton pointed out, history smiles on Philadelphia in this encounter:

It's hard to argue with history here. New York's most notable win came in Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys by all of a single point. Losing to Washington, Minnesota and Green Bay but beating Baltimore and Los Angeles doesn't inspire a ton of confidence.

To make matters worse, Eli Manning hasn't looked like his usual self this year with eight touchdowns to six interceptions. The ground game behind him averages only 3.3 yards per carry.

Compare this to the Eagles. Carson Wentz (nine touchdowns and three interceptions) and a defense that allows an average of 16.7 points per game lost to Dallas in overtime but have blowout wins against Minnesota and Pittsburgh.

One could invent the theory the Eagles were just a surprising team to start the season, but a 21-10 whipping of the Vikings in Week 7 says otherwise. Look for the Philadelphia defense to force Manning into making enough mistakes to decide the contest.

Prediction: Eagles 21-20

Carolina (-2) at L.A. Rams

Bettors should have eyed this line from the moment it went live, and chances seem strong it will shift in favor of the home team.

It has become easy to distrust the Carolina Panthers this year given their 2-5 record. Maybe Las Vegas likes the fact they took down the Arizona Cardinals 30-20 in Week 8, but even that doesn't offer much luster since the Cardinals are 3-4-1.

The Los Angeles Rams have performed as expected—they're gritty enough to grab some wins and stay competitive in most encounters regardless of the result.

No, really, ignore Week 1 and look at this:

Week	Opponent	Outcome
1	at SF	Loss, 28-0
2	vs. SEA	Win, 9-3
3	at TB	Win, 37-32
4	at ARI	Win, 17-13
5	vs. BUF	Loss, 30-19
6	at DET	Loss, 31-28
7	vs. NYG	Loss, 17-10

The Rams have played notable competition close, if not won outright. Sure, the team needs to draft better and probably would benefit from a new head coach, but those parts don't concern bettors.

What should is that the Rams have had a bye week to prep for Carolina. The floundering Panthers manage to cough up an average of 28 points per game. Sure, the defense allows only 80.1 yards on the ground, but the secondary permits 286.9 yards through the air.

In this weird season, it wouldn't come as much of a shock to see Case Keenum outduel Cam Newton. After all, the Rams starter has torched poor secondaries this year, like when he touched up Detroit for three touchdowns.

In the past, it was easy to look at a game like this on the road for the Panthers and shrug it off, trusting Newton's ability to do it all. But he can't this year, which is why he's completing less than 60 percent of his passes with eight passing scores to six picks. Look for the lack of weapons around him and the defense's weaknesses to cost the Panthers this road encounter.

Prediction: Rams 23-20

Denver (-1) at Oakland

Bettors should jump all over this line because it's hard to say which way it will shift in the coming days.

This is an old-school battle for first place in the AFC West, as both the Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders sit on 6-2 records. Denver has performed about as expected with Trevor Siemian (eight touchdowns, four interceptions) under center and is still reinforced by an elite defense that is ranked fifth, allowing 17.0 points per game. 

Oakland is another story as one of the biggest surprises of the season. The defense hasn't looked great, but the ground game has averaged 4.8 yards per carry and scored eight times. Derek Carr has looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the league while completing 66.3 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns to three interceptions.

For Carr, this encounter comes down to his guys staying the course, as captured by SiriusXM NFL Radio:

He's not wrong. The ground game has paved the way well, and one could argue Carr looks like the midseason MVP. The Broncos have yet to encounter something like the tandem the Raiders trot out at wideout, either:

Player	REC	TAR	YDS	TD
Amari Cooper	52	80	787	2
Michael Crabtree	47	75	569	6

On the other side, Denver hasn't averaged even four yards per carry on the season, and Siemian has thrown multiple touchdowns in a game once. It's almost an odd role reversal, with Denver now boasting the quarterback who can cost the team the game if he's forced to throw.

Look for Carr to have a strong outing, while his counterpart struggles. Oakland has the element of surprise since this is the first of two matchups between these new-look teams. Playing at home, the Raiders are an outstanding underdog pick.

Prediction: Raiders 24-20

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

Follow Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) on Twitter.