Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Minnesota Vikings are regaining the upper hand in the rivalry with the Chicago Bears, winning the last three meetings and five of the last seven and going 5-2 against the spread. Coming off their first loss of the season the Vikings will look to rebound when they battle the Bears on Monday night at Soldier Field.

Point spread: The Vikings opened as four-point favorites; the total was 41 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.7-18.4, Vikings (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

The Vikings suffered their first defeat of the season last week, a 21-10 decision against the Philadelphia Eagles. Minnesota took an early 3-0 lead but then gave up a 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown and never recovered. The Vikings actually outgained the Eagles on the day 282-239, but they committed two turnovers in the red zone, got stuffed on a fourth down at the Philadelphia 6-yard line and fumbled a punt away.

Nonetheless, while Minnesota struggled to put points on the board against an improved Eagles defense, the Vikings defense still ranks No. 1 in the league, giving up just 279.5 yards and 14.0 points per game.

At 5-1 (both SU and ATS) Minnesota leads the NFC North by one game over the second-place Green Bay Packers.

Why the Bears can cover the spread

The Bears lug a three-game losing streak into Monday after their 26-10 defeat at Green Bay last Thursday, and they lost quarterback Brian Hoyer to a broken arm in the process. When it rains, it pours.

Chicago grabbed a 10-6 lead on the Packers early in the third quarter on a strip-sack for a touchdown by rookie linebacker Leonard Floyd, but it couldn't' find an answer for Aaron Rodgers, who dinked and dunked the Bears defense for three long touchdown drives after that.

Two weeks ago, Chicago blew a 13-0 lead and lost by a point to the Jacksonville Jaguars, and three weeks ago, it gave up a late 23-19 lead over the Indianapolis Colts and lost. That's three games in a row that the Bears have led in the second half but couldn't hold on. If they'd play for a complete 60 minutes, they might win one.

With Hoyer down and out, Jay Cutler returns after missing six games with a sprained thumb. Chicago also hopes to get running back Jeremy Langford back after he missed action with a sprained ankle.

Smart pick

Minnesota gives up the fewest points in the league, and Chicago scores the fewest. But 17 points might win this game, and when that's the case, its always better to receive rather than give. It's not easy to say, but the smart bet here on the NFL lines is the Bears.

Betting trends

The Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Bears.

The Bears are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games on Monday.

The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at home.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.