Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Tennessee Titans will be looking to even their record at 4-4 on the season Thursday when they host the AFC South rival Jacksonville Jaguars at Nissan Stadium.

The Titans are coming off a 34-26 loss to the Indianapolis Colts last week as 3.5-point home favorites. With that defeat, Tennessee is 1-4 straight up and winless against the spread in its past five home dates. The Jaguars saw a brief two-game win streak come to an end last week with a 33-16 loss to the Oakland Raiders as two-point home chalk, but they are 4-2 ATS this season.

Point spread: The Titans opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 46.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 31.0-13.8 Titans (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jaguars are 3-0 SU in their past three appearances in a Thursday night game. That streak includes victories over Tennessee the past two years, holding the Titans to just 13 points in each of those outings.

Jacksonville's defensive line has been impressive, holding opposing passers to 207 or fewer yards in four of its past five games. A strong second-half defensive performance Thursday will be crucial, as the Titans have averaged just 5.3 points after halftime in each of their three SU losses this year.

The Jaguars are undefeated ATS in their past six games overall against the Titans and 4-1-1 ATS in their past six games at Nissan Stadium.

Why the Titans can cover the spread

On Thursday night, the Titans will be looking for another strong performance from running back DeMarco Murray, who has rushed for over 100 yards in three of the team's past five games.

Quarterback Marcus Mariota has tossed eight touchdown passes against just one pick over the past three weeks. Mariota's scrambling has also paid dividends, as the 22-year-old eclipsed 60 yards on the ground in each of Tennessee's two recent wins.

Look for the Titans to pressure Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles all evening. Bortles ranks third in the NFL in interceptions thrown with nine, including two in last week's loss to the Raiders.

Smart pick

The home team has posted the SU win in each of the past five meetings between these division rivals. The Titans squeaked out a 42-39 victory last season, improving to 6-2 SU in their past eight games at home versus Jacksonville. Look for Tennessee to post the SU and ATS win Thursday night over Jacksonville, which has struggled to score points in each of its past two contests.

Betting trends

The favored team is 5-0 SU in its last five games in this matchup.

The Titans are 1-13-1 ATS in their last 15 games against their division.

The total has gone over in five of the Titans' last six games at home.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.