Prescott-Wentz Duel Has Look of Special Rivalry, but Both Have Plenty to Prove

Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz are supposed to be third-string quarterbacks. They entered training camp buried behind established, expensive starters and veteran backups. 

One thing led to another, and now they are a pair of franchise saviors and rookie sensations, two great hopes for a league hungry to develop some fresh major-market superstars. When Prescott meets Wentz in Dallas on Sunday, it's not just another battle for the NFC East. It's a winner-take-all duel to decide who will be anointed the "Future of the NFL."

But these saviors are on diverging paths. Prescott is coming off a five-game winning streak and a bye, with Dez Bryant returning to bolster his passing arsenal, a running game like a bullet train and a passer rating (103.9) that wedges him between Drew Brees and Philip Rivers on the leaderboard. After an impressive start, Wentz is coming off two losses and a turnover-filled survival victory against the Vikings, his passer rating (92.7) lower than Cody Kessler's rating (94.4).

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Prescott looks like a legend in the making. Wentz looks more like your typical impressive rookie starter.

The differences between them are not as close as they appear. And neither is quite as good as the early-season headlines suggest.

Quarterback Paleontology

Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich delivered a familiar sermon on the Thursday between his team's losses to the Lions and Redskins and an intimidating matchup with the vicious Vikings defense. It was the gospel of "learning experiences" for a rookie quarterback, a message we have all heard before after a youngster suffers a tough loss or two.

Reich pointed specifically to Wentz's late-game struggles in his two losses. Wentz played from behind for nearly all of the Lions game, led a fourth-quarter comeback, but threw the first interception of his career after a Ryan Mathews fumble in the final minutes allowed the Lions to retake the lead. The Washington game was similar: The Redskins led from their first score to the final gun, with Wentz's final last-ditch drive ending with a pair of sacks.

Reich said those games will help Wentz in the long run. "Coach [Doug Pederson] has a saying, 'Quarterbacks have to find where every bone is buried in this offense,'" he told reporters.

"You can tell these guys where these bones are buried, how to get to your second or third [receiver], or where's that checkdown at," Reich continued. "And on paper, we understand that. But to actually get out there in the field and know how to find those bones under pressure, it takes it to another level of experiential learning."

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In Wentz's first three starts, when he became the toast of Eastern Pennsylvania, the Eagles only trailed for a few minutes in the second quarter of the Bears game. Once forced to play from behind, particularly in the second half, Wentz has looked much more mortal.

Prescott, meanwhile has not thrown a pass with the Cowboys trailing since the third quarter of the 49ers game in Week 4. He has not entered a fourth quarter trailing since Week 2. His only attempts to lead the Cowboys back from behind in the final minutes of the fourth quarter date back to Week 1.

Prescott has thrown a total of 98 passes with the Cowboys leading. His rating on those passes is 103.2. He has thrown just 56 passes while trailing. His rating in those situations is a still-impressive 97.8. Wentz has a 103.0 rating on 86 passes while ahead and a 92.6 rating on 61 passes while behind.

The numbers are similar, but Prescott has had a few more opportunities to throw with the Cowboys winning. Which means that he has had fewer chances to go digging for those buried playbook bones he will someday have to find.

Both of our rookie phenoms have enjoyed the benefits of teams that have helped them play with the lead through the first seven weeks. Soft schedules helped: The Cowboys faced the Bears and 49ers, the Eagles the Bears and Browns. Obliging opponents helped: The Packers played self-destructively against the Cowboys; the Vikings became a turnover dispensary for the Eagles. Good teammates helped: Prescott has Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys offensive line supporting him; Wentz has the fine Eagles defense and the best special teams on earth at his back.

Put it all together, and neither rookie has had to dig deep in the fourth quarter all that often.

The table below shows just how much the difference between leading and trailing, particularly in the fourth quarter, affects both a quarterback's statistics and our impression of his performance. When his team is winning, a quarterback enjoys higher completion rates, lower sack rates and lower interception rates. Touchdown rates go up when a quarterback is trailing in the fourth quarter, thanks to a mix of do-or-die desperation and garbage-time touchdowns. But just about every other statistic gets worse.

Situation	Comp %	Yards/Att	TD %	INT %	Sack Rate	Rating
Leading, 4th Q	65.2	7.8	6.2	2.0	6.8	101.2
Leading	64.2	7.4	5.0	2.2	6.6	94.2
Trailing	62.2	7.2	4.5	2.7	7.0	87.6
Trailing, 4th Q	60.8	7.1	6.2	3.1	6.9	86.3

To contextualize the data using the passer rating scale, the average NFL quarterback looks like Drew Brees when playing with the lead in the fourth quarter and he's Philip Rivers when leading in general. When trailing, he becomes last year's Ryan Fitzpatrick or Blake Bortles, dipping down to Brock Osweiler or Blaine Gabbert when trailing in the fourth quarter.

The average quarterback throws 64 percent more passes when trailing than when leading, unlike our rookie sensations, who have thrown many more passes with a lead. So there's a pretty heavy short-term distortion at work in the Prescott-Wentz data. The game situations have started evening out for Wentz. Prescott's playing field isn't quite as level yet.

That doesn't mean Wentz is secretly better than Prescott, or that either is a "fluke." It just might mean the hype has gotten ahead of itself (ooh, that's new), especially when the "how did the Browns-Rams-Jets miss on these guys?" or "TRADE ROMO NOW" takes start pouring in. There's a lot about these quarterbacks that these quarterbacks won't even know until they face more crunch-time situations.

More Similar Than Not

Pederson said Wednesday that he did not see much separation between Prescott (whom the Eagles held private interviews with before the draft) and Wentz. "They're probably more similar than they are not."

When asked what makes the pair of rookies so successful, so soon, Pederson offered standard coaching generalities. "I just think these guys are coming out of school more NFL-ready," he told a group of reporters.

"They know how to handle success. They know how to handle media. They know how to handle fans. I think they're just generally more prepared coming to us at this level."

Cowboys coach Jason Garrett, who coached Wentz in the Senior Bowl, was also politely vague about what makes Prescott and Wentz so special. "The opportunities given these guys, they've taken full advantage of them," Garrett said in a conference call. "They're still young players. They're still learning...but these guys have done a great job with their work and their preparation."

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In other words, Prescott and Wentz are much like other recent rookie quarterbacks who have achieved early success. They're poised, smart, competitive and prepared, but that's said of every rookie who wins a handful of starts. The biggest difference between Wentz and Prescott and past rookie quarterbacks was probably their early-season interception-free streaks, both of which have ended. And as we have seen, those streaks got a boost from the opponents and the game situations.

We may be writing about Wentz vs. Prescott VIII in a few years. These guys could also just settle down and become Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton.

There's even a chance that things go horribly wrong; remember what was said and felt about Robert Griffin in the autumn of 2012. At least all of this early success makes that seem unlikely. "They're proven winners," Pederson said of Prescott and Wentz. "They know how to lead their teams."

Proven winners feels a little strong. They have proved they can win under favorable circumstances. Let's wait until they've stood at their own 25-yard line with four minutes left in the fourth quarter trailing by four points a few times before we break out the Roman numerals or crown anyone.

One of these kids is going to find himself trailing in the fourth quarter Sunday. Maybe he will handle it well. Maybe he will learn a lesson. Either way, we will know a little more about him. Prescott and Wentz are still digging into their playbooks. We may think we know what each is capable of or who is better. But we're only starting to scratch the surface.

Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @MikeTanier.