Fact or Fiction on All of MLB's Early 2016-2017 MLB Free-Agency, Trade Rumors
It's been a while, but with the regular season a distant memory and no more than five games remaining in the 2016 MLB season, the time has come to play some fact or fiction as we prepare for what should be a dizzying, somewhat bizarre hot-stove league during the offseason.
Cue the Welcome Back, Kotter theme song—or Mase's last attempt at staying relevant.
While the rumor mill is still warming up, bits and pieces of speculation have been sputtering out of its exhaust pipes like chunks of snow after your neighborhood street plow has kindly encased your car in a cocoon of sludge.
Can a perennial contender keep its longtime dynamic duo together in the middle of its lineup? Is a veteran-laden club prepared to part with one of its younger assets in an attempt to get even younger? Does "not ruling out a return" actually mean there's no chance of a player staying with his most recent employer?
We'll hit on all that and more in this week's triumphant return of fact or fiction.
Fact: Detroit Will Trade J.D. Martinez
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On the surface, trading 29-year-old outfielder J.D. Martinez seems to run counter to the wishes of Detroit Tigers general manger Al Avila, who according to the Detroit Free Press' Anthony Fenech, wants the team to get younger and gain more payroll flexibility.
After all, Martinez is still plenty productive, hitting .307 with 22 home runs, 68 RBI and a .908 OPS in just 120 games last season. And the $11.75 million salary he's set to collect in the final year of his deal is more than reasonable in the grand scheme of things.
But as Fenech notes, the Tigers have no immediate plans to discuss an extension with Martinez, who would surely be in demand on the trade market despite a bevy of right-handed power hitters, including Yoenis Cespedes, Edwin Encarnacion and Mark Trumbo, hitting free agency.
What lends credence to Fenech's suggestion that Martinez is the most likely Tiger to be traded is this: Dealing him away would not necessarily take Detroit out of contention in 2017.
"Other players will be written and talked about—like ace righty Justin Verlander or second baseman Ian Kinsler—but simply put, the Tigers do not profile as a postseason-contending team by trading one of the best pitchers and players in the American League."
They don't.
Moving Martinez would not only bring Detroit back a package of young, controllable talent, but create playing time for youngsters Tyler Collins and Steven Moya, both of whom are out of minor league options.
None of this appears to have been lost on Avila.
"That's why we're going to go in with an open mind in the wintertime," Avila remarked. "To see what changes you can make that can not hurt you that much."
Fiction: Toronto Will Keep the Band Together
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As is the case with every team, Toronto has an exclusive five-day window from the conclusion of the World Series to negotiate with its own free agents. As we noted in our offseason outlook for the Blue Jays, a slew of familiar faces are poised to depart as free agents, none bigger than Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.
According to Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith, Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins plans to do everything possible to talk shop with the pair while that window is open. Surely, he'd love to lock them both up with new deals, keeping them off the open market.
But here's the catch: Toronto can't afford to keep them both and make the improvements it needs to.
Without re-signing any of its free agents, we project the team's Opening Day payroll to sit right around $120 million. If the plan is to keep player costs in the $135 million-to-$140 million range, as Toronto has in two of the past three seasons, Atkins won't have much disposable income to play with.
With the Jays believed to be focused on "adding athletic, speedy left-handed hitters to the lineup, beefing up the bullpen and adding depth to an exceptionally strong starting rotation," according to Sportsnet's Shi Davidi, it's entirely possible that both Bautista and Encarnacion wind up playing elsewhere in 2017.
The best-case scenario for Toronto fans—assuming the majority would like to see the team retain one of its two free-agent sluggers—is that Encarnacion agrees to a new deal during that exclusive window.
If he doesn't, it's likely that both will be wearing different uniforms come Opening Day.
Fact: Baltimore Will Trade a Starting Pitcher
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Wait, what? Baltimore is going to trade a starting pitcher from a rotation that finished with the American League's third-highest ERA (4.72)? How does that make any sense?
Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy have secured three rotation spots, leaving Yovani Gallardo, Wade Miley and Ubaldo Jimenez to battle it out for two spots. But according to MASNSports.com's Roch Kubatko, the Orioles don't believe that any of them are well-suited for a bullpen role.
With Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, Chris Lee and Jayson Aquino waiting in the wings at Triple-A Norfolk as inexpensive depth options, unloading one of those three veteran arms isn't such a crazy idea—especially given the lack of quality starting pitching available in free agency.
While none of them are coming off strong seasons, any of the three could be of interest to a contending team in need of a short-term option at the back of its rotation or, more likely, a rebuilding team that's searching for a veteran innings-eater to lighten the workloads of its younger arms.
Jimenez is due $13.5 million in the final year of his deal, while both Gallardo ($11 million) and Miley ($8.75 million) have reasonable salaries in 2017 and team options on their contracts for 2018.
Sure, the Orioles would have to pick up some of that cash in a potential deal and aren't likely to get much in the way of a substantial return. But there's value to shedding payroll, especially with the Orioles potentially having to replace both Mark Trumbo and Matt Wieters in their lineup.
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Fiction: Yoenis Cespedes Will Re-Sign with the New York Mets
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To no one's surprise, Yoenis Cespedes will be opting out of his contract with the New York Mets shortly after the World Series comes to an end, according to a report from Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball. Heyman adds that while Cespedes will be a free agent, he hasn't shut the door on a return to the Mets.
But that's exactly what he's doing by opting out.
Cespedes will be the most sought-after free agent on the market and is sure to receive multiyear offers in excess of $100 million. It wouldn't at all be surprising to see him wind up with a four- or five-year deal in the neighborhood of $150 million, if not more.
After all, it only takes two teams to start a bidding war, and there will assuredly be more than two teams in hot pursuit of the still-in-his-prime slugger.
There's no overstating Cespedes' importance in the middle of the Mets lineup. But the team is going to be hit with significant raises for pitchers Jacob deGrom, Jeurys Familia and Matt Harvey in arbitration and has to either re-sign or find a replacement for second baseman Neil Walker.
Paying Cespedes in excess of $30 million a season doesn't seem realistic for the Mets, who have outfielders Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson, Juan Lagares and Brandon Nimmo on the roster for 2017 and hold a $13 million team option on Jay Bruce that figures to be picked up.
Lest we forget: While Bruce was acquired from Cincinnati at the non-waiver trade deadline to bolster New York's lineup down the stretch, it was also a move geared toward providing the club insurance against losing Cespedes after the season.
Unless he is willing to accept a heavily back-loaded deal to remain a Met—and there's no reason to believe that he is—Cespedes will be clearing the outfield fences elsewhere in 2017.
Fact: Boston Will Pick Up Clay Buchholz' Option
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Back in 2013, Clay Buchholz went 12-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 1.03 WHIP and looked like a fixture in Boston's rotation. But after going a combined 23-28 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in the three years since, the 32-year-old suddenly looks like an expendable piece of a disappointing pitching staff in Beantown.
Or does he?
Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball reports that the Red Sox are "seriously thinking about" picking up the $13.5 million option the team holds on Buchholz for the 2017 season. Expect that to go from "thinking about" to "have exercised" shortly after the World Series ends.
The Red Sox lack any real depth after the team's projected starting rotation for next season—David Price, Rick Porcello, Drew Pomeranz, Steven Wright and Eduardo Rodriguez. Really, who would be the team's next pitcher up if one of those starters was lost to injury?
Henry Owens hasn't shown he's capable of getting big league hitters out consistently. Brian Johnson took a step backward in his development. Injuries have limited Brandon Workman to just 20 innings of work since the end of the 2014 season.
Simply put, Boston can't afford to not pick up Buchholz's option, even if he starts the season as the team's long reliever. Were he to hit the open market, he'd assuredly land a multiyear deal from another club, forcing the Red Sox to overpay for an even more mediocre insurance policy.
He may not be the pitcher Boston hoped he'd develop into, but he's still a capable, experienced arm worthy of a roster spot.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
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