What's the Comfort Level for Fantasy Studs Heading into Week 7?
We're already a month-and-a-half through the 2016 NFL season. That means most of you are probably just about halfway through your fantasy regular season.
Unfortunately, being this deep into the fantasy season doesn't necessarily mean we have a clearer picture of which players are must-starts and which we should be cautious about starting. Even the top fantasy producers can run into injury-muddled situations, tough matchups and uncertain roles.
This week, for example, Pittsburgh Steelers fantasy studs Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown will have to play without starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
So how should we feel about some of the top fantasy stars heading into Week 7? That's what we're going to examine here.
For this list, we'll be examining players who have been fantasy stars in the past, as well as top-25 positional scoring leaders from this season, according to NFL.com. We'll be looking for difficult situations and challenging matchups and provide a comfort level for each player.
Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami Dolphins
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Miami Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi isn't a traditional fantasy stud, but he elevated himself to that level in Week 6. Against the Pittsburgh Steelers, he rushed for 204 yards and two touchdowns. He now has 321 yards rushing and four scores on the season, which moves him into the top 25 at his position at NFL.com.
If you own Ajayi or managed to pick him up off the waiver wire this week, you're probably excited to put his worth to the test immediately. Here's the thing, though: Ajayi has only recently earned a significant role, and he is facing a stiff matchup.
Ajayi got the most carries of his career (25) against Pittsburgh, and that translated to big production. The only other time he received double-digit carries was in Week 5, and he averaged only 3.2 yards per carry in that contest.
There's just no guarantee that Ajayi is going to continue dominating on the ground.
This week's opponent is the rival Buffalo Bills, who possess the league's fifth-ranked scoring defense (17.2 points per game allowed). Pro Football Focus also ranks the Bills sixth in run defense.
If Ajay can pass this tough test with another big day, then it'll be time to admit he is the real deal. However, expecting him to do so with only one truly respectable outing on his resume would be a big risk.
Comfort Level: Ordering the Daily Special Without Checking the Menu
David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals
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Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson might be one of the most dangerous offensive weapons we've seen in some time. Through six games, he has produced 568 yards rushing, 265 yards receiving and eight touchdowns.
This week, though, Johnson faces the feared Seattle Seahawks defense, which is allowing an average of just 74.6 yards rushing per game. We're not going to push the panic button on this matchup, though.
There is some reason for confidence with Johnson in this game. He did just run for 111 yards and three touchdowns against a stout New York Jets defensive line, after all. The Jets are rated eighth in run defense by Pro Football—the Seahawks are third.
Arizona is going to want to get Johnson involved early in order to reduce pressure on quarterback Carson Palmer. This means Johnson should get a lot of early carries and reception opportunities. His ability to serve as a pass-catcher gives him added value in points-per-reception formats.
Don't anticipate a monster game from Johnson, but he should have an acceptable day based on his workhorse role. Atlanta Falcons backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman combined for 50 rushing yards, four receptions and 17 receiving yards in Seattle last week. It's worth noting that the Falcons trailed almost the entire first half.
Comfort Level: Secondhand Sleeper Sofa
Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants
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New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has had his ups and downs this season. He had 222 yards and two touchdowns this past week against the Baltimore Ravens, but he has also been held below 75 yards in three of his six games.
Making matters even worse, when Beckham isn't playing well or getting the ball often, he has been prone to mental meltdowns.
How will he react if he gets shut down early in London against the Los Angeles Rams and their stout defense, which is rated seventh overall by Pro Football Focus? Fortunately, we're not counting on it being a major issue.
The Rams do have a terrific defense, but quality receivers have had some success against them. Cardinals receiver Larry Fitzgerald caught five passes for 62 yards in Week 4; Detroit Lions wideout Golden Tate amassed 165 yards and a score this past week.
Beckham's production is likely to fall somewhere between that of Fitzgerald and Tate. He should be considered a must-start in PPR formats because he is likely to remain a big focal point of the offense. Expect six caches and something in the range of 75 yards at a minimum—with the possibility of finding the end zone or breaking a long one on the table.
Comfort Level: Bean Bag Chair
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals
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Since we mentioned Larry Fitzgerald, we might as well talk about his matchup with the Seahawks this week. This is likely to be a major challenge, as Seattle is rated first in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus.
Fantasy enthusiasts are likely to point to Julio Jones and his 139-yard, one-touchdown day in Seattle this past week.
While Jones did have a wonderful outing against the Seahawks, it's worth taking into account that Seattle safety Kam Chancellor was absent in the secondary for the entire game. Furthermore, primary pass-rusher Michael Bennett was knocked out of the game with a knee injury.
Gregg Bell of the News Tribune believes both Chancellor and Bennett will play in Arizona. If so, then Fitzgerald will be facing a fully loaded Seahawks defense, whereas Jones did not.
Expect Fitzgerald to get some opportunities and to catch a handful of passes because his veteran savvy and route running will allow him to. Just don't expect him to put up big numbers or to reach the end zone.
The Cardinals will try to grind out this one.
Comfort Level: Grocery-Store Stop En Route to a Costume Party
Isaiah Crowell, RB, Cleveland Browns
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According to NFL.com, Cleveland Browns running back Isaiah Crowell remains a top-15 back because of his early success. However, the Alabama State product has been on the downswing over the past two weeks.
In Week 5, Crowell produced just 40 combined rushing and receiving yards. Last week, that total fell to 36 yards. Now he and the Browns have to go into Cincinnati and face the rival Bengals.
We cannot feel too confident about a bounce-back game. If the Browns fall behind big early, Crowell's role will diminish. Cleveland played its entire Week 6 game against the Tennessee Titans from behind, and Crowell finished with a mere nine carries.
However, we recommend giving Crowell one more starting chance. If the Browns can keep this game close, he could be in for a solid day. Cincinnati is giving up an average of 108.2 yards rushing per game and is rated 21st in run defense by Pro Football Focus.
Since Browns head coach Hue Jackson likes to utilize his running backs in the passing game, Crowell should be in line for a couple of receptions too—though Duke Johnson is typically the receiving back.
Speaking of Jackson, this is his homecoming game in Cincinnati. He spent the past two seasons as the Bengals' offensive coordinator, and it seems likely he'll know how best to attack Cincinnati with Crowell.
Comfort Level: Blind Date
Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
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When a starting quarterback is on the sideline, it tends to affect the receivers in his offense. When Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is on the sideline, it hurts star receiver Antonio Brown's production.
Just consider this: Big Ben has thrown all 43 of Brown's career touchdowns. During the four games Roethlisberger missed due to injury last season, Brown's yards-per-game average fell from 133.3 to 58.8. His receptions-per-game average dropped from 9.9 to 4.3.
In other words, Brown just doesn't get the football as often or as deep downfield when someone else is under center. This week, that someone will be Landry Jones.
This doesn't mean Brown can't produce, but it makes starting him risky. Adding to the risk is the fact the Steelers host the Patriots. New England is rated ninth in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus and usually focuses on taking away an opponent's biggest weapon.
On top of everything else, it appears the Steelers are primed to bring a conservative game plan to the matchup.
“We have to work to keep the score down,” Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said, per Joe Rutter of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. “That will aid us in terms of the game unfolding. A shootout is not a type of game we're looking for in terms of the present circumstances for us.”
Brown is too talented to sit, but don't expect more than a handful of receptions and 60-70 yards. Feel lucky if he finds the end zone.
Comfort Level: Metal Folding Chair
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans
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Houston Texans receiver DeAndre Hopkins was the definition of a fantasy stud a year ago. In 2015, he racked up 1,521 yards receiving and 11 touchdowns on 111 catches. While he remains a focal point of the offense—he has 31 receptions in six games—Hopkins hasn't been quite as prolific this season.
In fact, Hopkins has failed to reach the 60-yard mark in four of his six games this season. He's topped the 100-yard mark just once and has only surpassed five receptions twice.
You might blame part of the problem on the inconsistency of quarterback Brock Osweiler, but the fact remains that Hopkins hasn't been a consistent fantasy stud this year.
Hopkins is staring down a difficult matchup this week too. The Denver Broncos are rated first in overall defense by Pro Football Focus. This doesn't bode well for Hopkins, who had just 71 yards—albeit on nine receptions, which is great for PPR—last week against the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts are rated dead last in overall defense by Pro Football Focus.
To make matters worse, the Broncos appear determined to use Osweiler and the Texans offense to make a statement.
“We know he left us, it is what it is,’’ Broncos cornerback Chris Harris Jr. said, per Mike Klis of KUSA Denver. “I’m pretty sure he wants to win. We want to beat him bad. Get a lot of interceptions.’’
Hopkins won't even be a PPR commodity if Osweiler's passes repeatedly end up in Denver hands.
Comfort Level: Sleeping Bag Stuffed with Mayonnaise
Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
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An educated guess tells us that the Steelers offense isn't likely to operate at full capacity as long as Roethlisberger remains on the sideline. This is almost certainly going to impact the productivity of Pittsburgh's skill-position players, but we're not so worried about running back Le'Veon Bell.
Bell is consistently a must-start in fantasy because of his role in the offense. He is a true dual-threat back who is capable of producing as both a runner and a receiver. Just consider the fact that Bell already has 263 yards rushing, 20 receptions and 177 yards receiving this season.
He's played only three games.
Bell may have a harder time producing on a per-play basis this week because the Patriots will have an easier time focusing on him with Roethlisberger out. The flip side to this is that the Steelers are likely to rely on Bell more in order to protect spot-starter Landry Jones at quarterback.
According to Pro Football Focus, Bell has seen at least 50 offensive snaps in each of his three games this season. He's definitely not going to see a reduced role with Jones under center, and he'll likely be the biggest benefactor of a simplified offense.
Expect Bell to be the centerpiece of Pittsburgh's Roethlisberger-less offense and to be a worthwhile fantasy starter based on volume alone.
Comfort Level: Complimentary Spa Weekend
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