NFL Predictions Week 7: Picks and Projections for Top Underdogs' Upset Bids

At first glance, Week 7 doesn't appear to have much wiggle room for those who love to pick upsets.

Some of the most notable underdogs don't seem to have a chance. The Cleveland Browns won't take down the Cincinnati Bengals no matter how dire things look in the Queen City. Though a great team, the Pittsburgh Steelers won't upend the New England Patriots without Ben Roethlisberger under center.

Given the landscape, those on the hunt for upsets will need to balance on a thinner-than-usual beam, flirting with disaster by leaning too far in either direction.

Let's help the cause. Below is a look at the full Week 7 slate before a breakdown of notable upset opportunities.

NFL Week 7 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Chicago at Green Bay (TNF)	GB -8	46.5	GB 34-20
N.Y. Giants at L.A. Rams	NYG -3	44	NYG 23-20
Washington at Detroit	DET -1	48.5	WAS 27-23
Minnesota at Philadelphia	MIN -3	40	MIN 23-14
Cleveland at Cincinnati	CIN -10	46	CIN 30-20
Indianapolis at Tennessee	TEN -3	48	TEN 24-20
Baltimore at N.Y. Jets	E	42.5	BAL 27-20
Oakland at Jacksonville	JAC -1	49	OAK 28-24
New Orleans at Kansas City	KC -6.5	50.5	KC 30-21
Buffalo at Miami	BUF -3	44.5	MIA 27-24
San Diego at Atlanta	ATL -6.5	53	ATL 28-23
Tampa Bay at San Francisco	n/a	47.5	SF 23-20
New England at Pittsburgh	NE -7.5	46	NE 34-24
Seattle at Arizona	ARI -2	43.5	SEA 24-20
Houston at Denver (MNF)	DEN -7.5	41.5	DEN 24-17

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Upset Watch

Washington at Detroit (-1)

Given the fact that both teams have won at least two games in a row, it seems plausible the home-field advantage will only further favor the Detroit Lions over the Washington Redskins. 

Bettors shouldn't mind. A pair of wins doesn't tell the whole story with Detroit. One came against the suddenly struggling Philadelphia Eagles, while the other was against a Los Angeles Rams team that seemed like it couldn't wait to find a way to blow it. Both wins came by three points or less.

Washington has simply looked better in all phases. After a sluggish start, the Kirk Cousins-led offense has 27 or more points in three of four games, sparking a four-game winning streak. Said streak includes wins over the Eagles and New York Giants while Cousins has thrown eight touchdowns to three interceptions and running back Matt Jones has turned in a pair of 100-yard performances.

Redskins wide receiver Pierre Garcon put it best, as captured by SiriusXM NFL Radio:

While much of the focus will go to the offenses, defense is where bettors can make upset money here.

Washington has improved in this facet as well, having allowed 20 or fewer points in three of the four wins. Detroit simply can't hang in this regard, having allowed 23 or more points four times, with two offenses hitting on a minimum of 34. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown 17 touchdowns to three picks on the unit, opposing rushers have averaged 4.7 yards per carry and the defense has only tallied 13 sacks.

Matthew Stafford and the Detroit offense boast talent, but overcoming their own defense in a shootout with an improving Washington squad won't happen.

Prediction: Redskins 27-23

Buffalo (-3) at Miami

An AFC East meeting between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins reads like a contest between two emerging, hot backs and quarterbacks wishing they would play better. 

For Buffalo, LeSean McCoy looks like an MVP candidate. He rushed for 140 yards and three scores in a Week 6 win against the San Francisco 49ers, giving him 587 yards and six TDs on the year.

Jay Ajayi has been slower to emerge for the Dolphins, but he torched the Steelers in Week 6 with 204 yards and two scores in a victory, planting him at 321 yards and four TDs.

Bettors have to decide if Miami's 30-15 shuttering of the Steelers is the sign of a turnaround or a one-week affair.

In reality, neither team has been overly impressive. Miami hasn't finished winnable games, which started in Week 1 after a two-point loss on the road against the Seattle Seahawks. Buffalo has won four in a row, but beating up on the 49ers and Rams and losing to the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets produces a shrug.

While Buffalo blew Miami out of the water in both encounters last season, the emergence of a capable running game should have this one closer than usual. At home, look for the Dolphins to show a sense of pride and force a familiar opponent to the air, helping the team to finally squeak out one of the close, winnable games.

Prediction: Dolphins 27-24

Seattle at Arizona (-2)

The Arizona Cardinals haven't inspired a ton of confidence this year.

Running back David Johnson posting 111 yards and three rushing scores in a 28-3 dismantling of the Jets on Monday Night Football recently feels like a typical ho-hum prime-time game more than anything—Arizona still sits at 3-3. The other wins? Against Tampa Bay and San Francisco.

The Seahawks, on the other hand, boast a 4-1 record and sit in control of the NFC West. Russell Wilson and the offense thwarted a game Atlanta Falcons team in Week 6, 26-24, while getting 64 yards and two scores on the ground from Christine Michael.

The real difference in this line, though, is twofold. Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer not only left the Monday win against the Jets early over what has since been called a cramp, but he's also showing clear signs of regression with seven touchdowns to five interceptions on the year.

That's terrible news against Seattle's defense, which Arizona head coach Bruce Arians hasn't been shy about praising leading up to the game, per SiriusXM NFL Radio:

If the Seattle defense could hold a Matt Ryan-led Atlanta attack to 24 points and limits opposing backs to a per-carry average of 3.3 yards, this game will be quite close.

Down to the wire, bettors have to take the better-looking team with a more reliable quarterback and defense. This being a road contest doesn't matter, either, not with Seattle hitting Arizona last year for a 36-6 victory.

Prediction: Seahawks 24-20

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

Follow Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) on Twitter.