Week 6 NFL Picks: Tips, Odds and Over/Under Predictions for Sunday

Week 6 of the NFL season turned in its first upset of a tough slate early when the San Diego Chargers handed the Denver Broncos a 21-13 loss on Thursday Night Football.

Denver entered the predictable favorite given an elite defense and San Diego's struggles and recent injury history. With any luck, though, bettors realized what a trap game it was for the favorite on a short week—or at least took advantage of an over/under of 45.5 at times before kickoff.

So goes the tug of war and mental leaps bettors must make each week to come out ahead of the house in Las Vegas. With odds designed to come away squeaky clean, the only way for an individual to emerge unscathed comes through research of almost anything and everything pertaining to an encounter.

Below, let's outline the rest of the week and go in-depth on a few matchups.

NFL Week 6 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
L.A. Rams at Detroit	DET -3	43.5	LA 23-20
San Francisco at Buffalo	BUF -9	44.5	SF 21-20
Jacksonville at Chicago	CHI -1.5	47	CHI 28-20
Cleveland at Tennessee	TEN -7	45.5	TEN 30-17
Philadelphia at Washington	PHI -3	45	PHI 27-24
Baltimore at N.Y. Giants	NYG -3	44.5	NYG 23-20
Carolina at New Orleans	CAR -2.5	n/a	NO 33-28
Pittsburgh at Miami	PIT -7.5	48	PIT 36-20
Cincinnati at New England	NE -9.5	47	NE 30-20
Kansas City at Oakland	KC -1	47	OAK 20-17
Atlanta at Seattle	SEA -6	46	ATL 27-24
Dallas at Green Bay	GB -4	47	GB 30-24
Indianapolis at Houston	HOU -3	46	HOU 24-14
N.Y. Jets at Arizona	ARI -7	47	ARI 27-13

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Jacksonville at Chicago (-1.5)

An encounter between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Chicago Bears—two teams with one win apiece—doesn't sound like the most appetizing game of the weekend. 

But sometimes the ugly games can produce big wins for bettors. Here, it is interesting to see the home team at little in the way of an advantage given the fact both teams haven't done much to impress.

To be fair, Jacksonville's one win on the year came against the Indianapolis Colts, whereas the Bears lost against the Colts. Jacksonville's dance with its rival was an odd contest in London, though, and otherwise the team lost three in a row. Quarterback Blake Bortles only has seven touchdowns to six interceptions, and no running back with notable usage has a per-carry average higher than 3.2.

Chicago, at least, appears on an upswing. The Bears have been plagued by injuries but have seemed to find some footing with backup quarterback Brian Hoyer, who has now thrown for more than 300 yards in three consecutive games. It hasn't turned into points (17, 17 and 23), but it's a start for a team that spent the first two weeks of the season getting blown away.

The Bears have also impressed on the offensive side of things after running back Jordan Howard took over starting duties. He's now rumbled for 296 yards on 51 attempts, good for a 5.8 per-carry average.

In a game where bettors can expect plenty of offense, look for the Jacksonville defense to make the difference. Opposing passers haven't had any problems throwing eight touchdowns to three picks against the unit, and opposing backfields have tallied a simple four yards per carry. Chicago's budding new attack seems on track and ready to translate yards into points. 

Prediction: Bears 28-20

Pittsburgh (-7.5) at Miami

It doesn't get much easier than this. 

Really, the hardest thing bettors have to do about an encounter between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins is figure out how much the former will take the victory by, both on the spread and over/under.

Granted, detractors might point out the Dolphins looked good in Week 1 despite a loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Ditto for the fact the Steelers took a downright odd 34-3 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3.

But the teams have showed true colors otherwise. Miami's only win on the season came against the Cleveland Browns. Pittsburgh has wins of 38-16, 24-16, 43-14 and 31-13.

Don Wright/Associated Press

Miami hasn't figured it out. Forget the struggling defense despite big names such as Ndamukong Suh—quarterback Ryan Tannehill has six touchdowns to seven interceptions and starting rusher Jay Ajayi has a 3.8 per-carry average.

"We're inept right now. We've just got to figure something out. We tried to slow it down (Sunday), and huddle, and we only had 41 plays and eat up 23 minutes. We're not getting enough first downs," head coach Adam Gase said, according to ESPN.com.

As the final scores show, Pittsburgh doesn't come close to having a similar problem. Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 15 scores to four picks on a 65.6 completion percentage. Le'Veon Bell has returned and already turned 38 carries into 210 yards after DeAngelo Williams played well in his place for four games. Supposedly strong defenses such as those belonging to the Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs and New York Jets have coughed up 24, 43 and 31 points, respectively.

Pittsburgh shouldn't see any problems jumping out ahead early. The Dolphins won't figure out all the offensive issues in one week, especially not with the coach dropping quotes like that, so bettors should enjoy what amounts to a free bet.

Prediction: Steelers 36-20

Dallas at Green Bay (-4)

It's odd going into a game between the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers featuring Aaron Rodgers and thinking it won't come down to quarterback play—especially when Rodgers' counterpart is a rookie. 

Alas, so it goes when Green Bay's top-rated run defense meets electric Dallas rookie back Ezekiel Elliott.

Elliott has taken the league by storm, rushing for 546 yards and five touchdowns on a 5.0 per-carry average. His output has helped the Cowboys to a 4-1 record, with the offense over the victories hitting on a minimum of 24 points.

Ron Jenkins/Associated Press

Green Bay, though, will have something to say about Elliott. The Packers have only allowed 171 yards and a single score on the ground so far, limiting opponents to an average of two yards per carry. The game plan, obviously, is to shutter Elliott and force Dallas rookie Dak Prescott to the air.

"Obviously they're stacked in their numbers in the run game. So maybe we'll have to throw it a little bit more," Prescott said, according to the Associated Press' Genaro C. Armas. "But that's a great defense that they've got over there. We're excited for the challenge."

Prescott has looked good with four scores to no picks, but it's a different animal perhaps getting less production from Elliott than usual while squaring off with Rodgers.

As for Rodgers, things have to align eventually. He's thrown nine scores to three picks but only completed 56.1 percent of his passes. Dallas even surrendered 317 yards and two scores to the aforementioned Hoyer, so there's room for Rodgers to exploit while rounding into midseason form.

This Dallas team is better than last year and expected, so it won't go down 28-7 against Green Bay like it did one year ago. But bettors should count on Green Bay's run defense showing up big and forcing a rookie quarterback into mistakes.

Prediction: Packers 30-24

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

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