NFL Predictions Week 6: Final Odds Projections and Fantasy Stars to Watch

Even the NFL's surefire studs aren't sure things for fantasy football production.

Several stars have subverted expectations early in the season, leaving investors wondering if they drafted poorly. This isn't referring to Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin or Keenan Allen; injuries are an ugly, inevitable part of the game. Healthy, trustworthy contributors have offered erratic results over the opening five weeks.

Not every underwhelming player falls under the bust label. The three marquee names highlighted below have enjoyed a couple of big performances, preserving their statuses as steady starters. But do they remain top plays heading into Week 6?

Let's take a look after running down the weekend slate and odds, per Odds Shark. 

Away	Home	Odds	O/U	Prediction
Cleveland Browns	Tennessee Titans	TEN (-7)	43.5	20-9 TEN
Jacksonville Jaguars	Chicago Bears	CHI (-1)	45.5	27-23 JAC
Carolina Panthers	New Orleans Saints	CAR (-2.5)	53	34-30 NO
Philadelphia Eagles	Washington	PHI (-2.5)	44.5	24-23 PHI
Cincinnati Bengals	New England Patriots	NE (-8.5)	47.5	31-21 NE
Pittsburgh Steelers	Miami Dolphins	PIT (-7)	48.5	30-17 PIT
Los Angeles Rams	Detroit Lions	DET (-3)	43.5	17-16 LA
San Francisco 49ers	Buffalo Bills	BUF (-9)	44.5	23-13 BUF
Baltimore Ravens	New York Giants	NYG (-3)	45	21-20 BAL
Kansas City Chiefs	Oakland Raiders	KC (-1.5)	46.5	30-27 KC
Atlanta Falcons	Seattle Seahawks	SEA (-6)	45.5	23-17 SEA
Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	GB (-4)	47	28-20 GB
Indianapolis Colts	Houston Texans	HOU (-3)	48.5	24-23 HOU
New York Jets	Arizona Cardinals	ARI (-7)	46	30-20 ARI

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Dylan Buell/Getty Images

For the first time in his brilliant career, Aaron Rodgers struggled last year. Most observers expected the Green Bay Packers quarterback to bounce back with Jordy Nelson's return, but they're still waiting.

Four games into 2016, Rodgers' 56.1 completion percentage ranks last among all quarterbacks. Before 2015, he had never dipped below 63.5 percent. His 6.30 yards per pass attempt and 87.7 quarterback rating would also erase last year's marks as new personal lows:

Stat	2016	Career
CMP %	56.1	64.8
YPA	6.30	7.95
PASS YPG	219.0	256.0
QB RTG	87.7	103.6

Last year, he received a mulligan for a depleted pass-catching group failing to create separation. But ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky noted an alarming trend that indicates the 32-year-old deserves more blame for his current slump.

"Rodgers has been off-target on more throws—short and long—this season," he wrote. "According to ESPN Stats & Info, he has underthrown or overthrown a pass for an incompletion on 24 percent of his attempts this season compared to 17 percent from 2008-15."

While the Dallas Cowboys have only yielded 18.2 points per game, they have relinquished the 12th-most ESPN.com fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The home matchup shouldn't scare anyone anyway, but Rodgers has now gone 13 games (including the postseason) without amassing 300 or more passing yards.

Until he proves otherwise, it's time to divorce him from the top tier of fantasy passers. Nevertheless, he remains a top-12 option, and nobody who drafted him should have ponied up for a high-caliber backup.

Projections: 24-of-40, 270 Passing Yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Matt Forte, RB, New York Jets

Everything was going so well for Matt Forte a month ago. The New York Jets welcomed the running back with a generous workload, allotting him 59 touches over two games. He responded with 264 total yards and three scores, all accrued in Week 2's win over the Buffalo Bills.

Such activity quickly proved unsustainable for the 30-year-old rusher, who has received 47 touches over the past three games. He didn't make much of his diminished involvement on a Gang Green offense that floundered against tough opponents:

Week	OPP	Rush	Rush YD	Rec.	Rec. YD	TD
3	at KC	15	65	2	-1	0
4	SEA	14	27	2	16	0
5	at PIT	12	53	2	7	0

While Forte has caught two receptions in each of the Jets' past three games, Bilal Powell has corralled six each time. Even with only four carries per contest, he registered 202 total yards to Forte's 167.

As a result, this tidbit from NumberFire's JJ Zachariason doesn't require the point-per-reception precondition, depending on how many points the league deducts for Powell's Week 3 fumble:

Before trading Forte for pennies on the dollar, consider that the Jets trailed big in all three losses, compelling them to use their younger pass-catcher more frequently. Unfortunately, that will likely remain a problem in Monday night's matchup with the Arizona Cardinals, who are seven-point favorites at home.

If a healthy Carson Palmer can steer Arizona's offense back on track, Forte is in line for another 12 to 15 carries. Given his inefficient 3.7 yards per rush, the veteran will need a touchdown to avoid another middling outing.

Projections: 14 Carries, 55 Rushing Yards, 2 Receptions, 15 Yards

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans

Bob Levey/Getty Images

By this time last season, DeAndre Hopkins had recorded 42 catches, 578 receiving yards and three touchdowns. So despite a matching three scores, forgive frustrated investors for expecting more than his 22 catches and 283 yards on 42 targets.

After receiving at least 11 targets in each of the Houston Texans' first 10 games last year, he has hit that clip once in five 2016 games. Rookie Will Fuller has consumed a large slice of the pie, collecting 20 receptions on 40 looks.

There's not much Hopkins owners can do. Selling low would be foolish, and he hasn't faltered nearly enough to consider benching. Just sit back and hope something changes against the Indianapolis Colts.

According to the Houston Chronicle's Aaron Wilson, Texans offensive coordinator George Godsey said he'll try to create more opportunities for his star wideout: 

"

In every phase of the game, you want to get your best players involved and get them involved throughout the game. Give credit to Minnesota, give credit to New England. They did a good job of that. It's up to us from a schematic standpoint to make sure we do some things to help DeAndre and help our unit out with him getting the ball.

"

The Colts have yielded 268.6 passing yards per contest, but they have the option to shadow Hopkins with top cornerback Vontae Davis. It wasn't a problem in both games last year, as the receiver reeled in a combined 263 yards on 19 catches.

FantasyPros' Week 6 consensus rankings peg Hopkins as the No. 9 wide receiver, with no expert placing him below No. 22. Although it's unlikely he merits the first-round draft choice this year, he remains a high-end receiving option on Sunday night.

Projections: 7 Receptions, 11 Targets, 90 Receiving Yards, 1 TD