NFL Predictions Week 6: Upset Picks and Projections

Those who leaned on upsets to provide wins in the predictions realm had a great time last weekend.

In Week 5, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took down a Carolina Panthers team without Cam Newton. The Detroit Lions managed a win over the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. Perhaps most impressive of all, the Atlanta Falcons hit the road and took down the Denver Broncos.

It was an odd week but a lucrative one for those who put in the time and knew where to look.

In hindsight, it can be the same story in Week 6, as plenty of favorites look vulnerable for various reasons, from injury to a bad matchup and beyond. Let's look at how Las Vegas feels about the week before circling some of the top upsets in red ink.

NFL Week 6 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Denver at San Diego	DEN -2.5	45.5	DEN 24-17
L.A. Rams at Detroit	DET -2.5	43.5	LA 23-20
San Francisco at Buffalo	BUF -7	44.5	SF 21-20
Jacksonville at Chicago	CHI -1.5	47	CHI 28-20
Cleveland at Tennessee	TEN -5.5	45.5	TEN 30-17
Philadelphia at Washington	WAS -1.5	45	PHI 27-24
Baltimore at N.Y. Giants	NYG -3	44.5	NYG 23-20
Carolina at New Orleans	CAR -3	n/a	NO 33-28
Pittsburgh at Miami	PIT -6.5	48	PIT 36-20
Cincinnati at New England	NE -8	47	NE 30-20
Kansas City at Oakland	OAK -1.5	47	OAK 20-17
Atlanta at Seattle	SEA -7	46	ATL 27-24
Dallas at Green Bay	GB -4.5	47	GB 30-24
Indianapolis at Houston	HOU -3	46	HOU 24-14
N.Y. Jets at Arizona	ARI -6.5	47	ARI 27-13

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Top Upset Picks

L.A. Rams at Detroit (-2.5)

Behind a trio of touchdown passes by quarterback Matthew Stafford, the Lions took down the Eagles in an interesting upset.

Granted, Detroit beat Philly by a single point (24-23)—but it counts. A late field goal and interception helped turn the tide and snap a three-game skid for the Lions.

One can tell by the line that Detroit's game against the Los Angeles Rams will be a close affair. The Rams surprisingly sit on a 3-2 record, and though last week saw a 30-19 loss to the Buffalo Bills, L.A. has already scored victories over the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks.

Perhaps most interesting about this contest is the plight of Los Angeles lead back Todd Gurley. Hailed as one of the league's elite backs, he's been ineffective all season while rushing for 288 yards and three scores on a 2.7 yards-per-carry average.

Pro Football Focus' Scott Barrett explained just how tough the sledding has been for Gurley behind a poor offensive line:

If he's going to have a breakout game, though, it figures to come against the Lions, who allow 4.9 yards per carry to opposing backs.

This seems like a matchup nightmare for the Lions. Detroit has already allowed 14 sacks of Stafford, and squaring off against elite defensive tackle Aaron Donald isn't an easy task. Constant pressure plus a ball-control offense with Gurley will keep the Rams boasting a winning record.

Prediction: Rams 23-20

San Francisco at Buffalo (-7)

Speaking of those Bills, some might label them as one of the hottest teams in the league right now. 

It's an iffy proposition at best. They are 3-2, yes. They have also won three in a row. But one of those wins came against the Rams. Another came against the Cardinals, who aren't as good as many figured. Yet another came on the road against the New England Patriots, which would stand as a much bigger highlight if quarterback Tom Brady had been on the field.

But he wasn't, and Buffalo burned bettors over the first two weeks of the season in losses to the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets. This is still the one-dimensional offense that has quarterback Tyrod Taylor averaging only 6.5 yards per attempt and the unreliable defense that allowed 37 points to the Jets.

Such qualities make an encounter with the 1-4 San Francisco 49ers upset material. The team announced Colin Kaepernick will take over in place of quarterback Blaine Gabbert this weekend.

ESPN Stats & Info provided a bit of context:

San Francisco's offense should be more lethal with Kaepernick in the fold. That's a scary proposition for opponents because running back Carlos Hyde has 377 yards and six touchdowns on the season already.

There's no telling how a quarterback change will impact the 49ers. But Kaepernick seems like an ideal fit in head coach Chip Kelly's system, and sometimes a change results in a strong rally around the new guy.

Given the up-and-down nature of the Bills and the potential for growth with a new quarterback under center for the underdog, look for the 49ers to win outright.

Prediction: 49ers 21-20

Carolina (-3) at New Orleans

The Panthers don't want anyone to believe it, but this year has the look of a lost season.

Categorize the downfall as not much of a surprise. The Panthers sat on their hands over the offseason until making a dumbfounding move by parting ways with top-tier cornerback Josh Norman.

The odd decisions have extended into the regular season. After a loss to the Falcons and coughing up more than 500 passing yards, the team cut top corner Bene Benwikere.

Sprinkle in a Newton injury, and a 1-4 record is the result.

Head coach Ron Rivera, at least, won't throw in the towel, as the Associated Press' Steve Reed captured:

"

In spite of the fact that some people want to go ahead and give the division to somebody already with 11 games left to play. We will wait and see and play them one at a time and that's the way we're going to look at it. We're not going to worry about what happened last year. It's a different football team and a different season.

"

Overall, the New Orleans Saints don't look much better at 1-3. But a 35-34 win over the San Diego Chargers and losses in 35-34, 16-13 and 45-32 fashion don't speak too poorly. Two of those losses came at the hands of 4-1 teams (Falcons and Oakland Raiders).

The Saints still boast an elite offense behind the arm of Drew Brees, who has 10 touchdowns to three picks, and supported by running back Mark Ingram's 4.1 yards per carry. The offensive line has surrendered only seven sacks.

These Saints at home can smell blood in the water against an all-too-familiar divisional foe. Both games between them last year were decided by five or fewer points. Carolina won both, but this year suggests a much different hierarchy in the NFC South, and Newton's return from an injury isn't the best situation.

Look for the Saints to pull one out at home against an exploitable opponent. These games always seem close, but New Orleans is healthier and more consistent while riding on the coattails of zero expectations and a weaker-than-expected division.

Prediction: Saints 33-28

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

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