What's the Comfort Level for Fantasy Studs Heading Into Week 6?
We're now more than a month into the NFL's 2016 regular season, and many of you are probably approaching the midpoint of your fantasy regular seasons.
We've seen five full weeks of fantasy action, including a handful of disappointments and some major surprises. There's a very good chance that your roster already looks a lot different than it did on draft day.
We've seen players like Jordan Howard, Terrelle Pryor and Sammie Coates become full-blown fantasy studs during the first month of the season. We've also seen a number of big-time players like Adrian Peterson, Jonathan Stewart, Carson Palmer and Cam Newton miss time due to injury. Even healthy fantasy studs like Julio Jones have had the occasional off week this season.
So how should we feel about some of the top fantasy stars heading into Week 6? That's what we're going to examine today.
For this list, we'll be looking at players who have been fantasy stars in the past, as well as top-25 positional scoring leaders from this season, according to NFL.com. We'll be looking at difficult situations and challenging matchups to provide a comfort level for each.
Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
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Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton suffered a concussion during his team's Week 4 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. He was unable to play this past week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Panthers—and Newton's owners—suffered as a result.
Newton's replacement, Derek Anderson, passed for 278 yards but also turned the ball over three times.
If Newton can return this week, he'll face a New Orleans Saints defense that is rated just 27th in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus. The problem here is that Newton may not be able to go.
Newton remains in the concussion protocol, though head coach Ron Rivers did admit that the quarterback got some individual work in on Monday.
“He had a good day on Monday. He came out and worked out with our training staff. They took him out and he ran. He threw the ball. ... He lifted,” Rivera said Tuesday, per Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer. “I don’t know how he is today. I haven’t had a chance to see him."
If Newton is healthy, he should be a solid start against that Saints defense. The trick resides in planning to start him when he might not go. If he's back on the practice field, there's probably a strong chance he'll be cleared sooner than later, but there is still some risk here.
Comfort Level: Riding a Scooter with a Helmet
Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/nfl-blog/article107497922.html#storylink=cpy
Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
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Two weeks ago, Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones went off against the Carolina Panthers for 300 yards receiving and a touchdown. Last week, however, the Denver Broncos defense held him to just two catches and 29 yards.
“They came out and doubled me,” Jones said, per Cameron Wolfe of the Denver Post. “They basically took me away and said, ‘You’re not going to beat us today.’ That’s fine, because if I’m taking two guys, then everybody else is going to step up.”
Jones has a point about taking away defenders, and the Falcons did indeed beat Denver. However, this strategy offers nothing for fantasy owners, and it could happen again this week.
The Falcons head into Seattle to face the Seahawks, who boast the top pass-coverage unit in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. Even more worrisome is the fact that last week wasn't Jones' first poor game of the season.
Jones had just one catch for 16 yards in Atlanta's Week 3 win over the Saints. He was battling an injury then, but it's still not what you'd expect from one of the top receivers in the game.
It's pretty much impossible to bench a player of Jones' caliber, but expecting a huge game from him this week might be a bit foolish.
Comfort Level: Wet Socks
Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons
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Falcons running back Tevin Coleman has become a legitimate fantasy star this year, thanks to his ability as a change-of-pace runner and his pass-catching out of the backfield.
So far this season, Coleman has 160 yards rushing, 17 receptions, 313 yards receiving and five total touchdowns.
Like Julio Jones, though, Coleman is heading into Seattle to face a tough defense. The Seahawks are rated first against the pass and fourth against the run by Pro Football Focus. This means that both of Coleman's strengths could be limited this week.
It's difficult to see Coleman having a huge game, and he may not even reach 100 combined rushing and receiving yards. If you're playing in a PPR league, though, he should have enough value to merit a start. If quarterback Matt Ryan cannot consistently find open receivers downfield, he's likely to start relying on the short-passing game to move the ball.
Coleman could realistically see a half-dozen receptions or more in this game. This would give him some decent PPR value, even if he doesn't rack up the yardage or reach the end zone.
If you have other starting-caliber backs on your roster, though, this may be the week to give Coleman a break.
Comfort Level: Advanced Yoga in Your First Class
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
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Another running back who has emerged as a fantasy stud this season is Dallas Cowboys rookie runner Ezekiel Elliott.
The former Ohio State star has 546 yards rushing, nine receptions, 81 yards receiving and five touchdowns so far this season. He has topped the 130-yard mark in each of his past three games and is coming off a monster performance against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Against Cincinnati, Elliott racked up 171 combined yards and two touchdowns.
The challenge this week is a Green Bay Packers defense that has been very stout against the run. Green Bay is rated second overall against the run by Pro Football Focus and is allowing an NFL-low 42.8 yards per game on the ground.
This is going to be a classic matchup of strength versus strength.
“I think they’re averaging 155 yards a game rushing, so you don’t have to say much more than that,” Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers said, per Wes Hodkiewicz of the team's official website. “They’re physical, and that’s the first thing you look at when you look at the Cowboys’ offense is their ability to run the ball.”
The Packers are going to be geared up to shut Elliott down on the ground. If he is going to have a successful day, it will likely require the Cowboys getting him more involved in the passing game. This doesn't bode well for players in standard leagues, and we're not sure Elliott will have anything more than a solid outing in PPR.
Comfort Level: Dancing in High Heels
Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers
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The 1-4 San Diego Chargers might not be playing a particularly good brand of football right now, but quarterback Philip Rivers is certainly not the problem. So far this season, he's passed for 1,469 yards and 11 touchdowns against only three interceptions.
As is usually the case, Rivers is a true fantasy stud.
This week, Rivers and the Chargers host the Broncos on Thursday night. Denver is rated third in pass rush and sixth in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus. The Broncos' ability to limit downfield receivers and pressure the quarterback could be enough to give Rivers a bad day
Sure, Matt Ryan was able to produce 267 yards with a touchdown and no picks against Denver last week. However, the Falcons benefit from having a dangerous duo in the backfield to keep defenses off balance. The Chargers have relied almost entirely on Melvin Gordon this season, and he isn't exactly a dynamic back.
Gordon does have seven touchdowns and 14 receptions this year, but he's also only averaging 3.6 yards per carry. Expect a whole lot of pressure to be on Rivers' shoulders in this one.
Like Ryan, Rivers may struggle to reach the 300-yard mark. Unlike Ryan, Rivers may be forced into a handful of turnovers—he had two picks and a fumble (not lost) against the Oakland Raiders last week.
Starting Rivers this week is risky.
Comfort Level: Riding Three-Deep in the Back of Your Cousin's Hatchback
Terrelle Pryor, WR, Cleveland Browns
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There are a few reasons why Cleveland Browns receiver Terrelle Pryor could be facing a tough situation in Week 6. The biggest, though, is that the Browns are not quite sure who will be in at quarterback.
Starter Cody Kessler left early during last week's contest against the New England Patriots. His replacement, Charlie Whitehurst, also left the game with an injury. This actually forced Pryor to run the offense from under center.
According to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com, the Browns are hopeful that Kessler can return against the Tennessee Titans this week. However, the team did promote rookie Kevin Hogan from the practice squad as a precaution.
Having an injured quarterback could drop Pryor's value as a receiver. The Titans boast a pass rush that is rated 10th overall by Pro Football Focus. If the Browns are forced to start Hogan, we could see a lot more of Pryor under center.
Pryor has completed four of his eight pass attempts this season for 40 yards.
We believe Pryor is still worth a start this week because of his role as Cleveland's only true offensive playmaker. He should see a number of targets from whoever is under center and should get some opportunities to run the ball.
Just don't expect Pryor to have a monster day.
Comfort Level: Porch Rocking Chair
Marvin Jones ,WR, Detroit Lions
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Since joining the Detroit Lions in the offseason, wide receiver Marvin Jones has found his way out from under A.J. Green's shadow. So far this season, he has already amassed 27 receptions, 519 yards and three touchdowns.
This week, though, Jones and the Lions host the Los Angeles Rams, who have one of the top defenses in the NFL. The Rams are rated third in overall defense by Pro Football Focus.
While the Rams' strong defensive unit hasn't exactly translated into terrific defensive numbers—the team is ranked 18th in total defense (364.6 yards per game allowed) by PFF—the team has been pretty good at limiting quality receivers.
Last week, Buffalo Bills receiver Robert Woods was limited to two receptions and 26 yards. Two weeks ago, Arizona Cardinals star Larry Fitzgerald caught five passes, but for only 62 yards. Seahawks wideout Doug Baldwin was held to three receptions and 20 yards in Week 2.
It should help some that Rams cornerback Trumaine Johnson isn't expected to play Sunday, according to Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com. However, this just doesn't feel like a week to expect big-time production from Jones.
Comfort Level: Attending the Wrong Political Rally
A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
8 of 9
Even though the Cincinnati Bengals got trounced by the Dallas Cowboys last week, wide receiver A.J. Green was able to put together a respectable game. He finished with four catches for 50 yards, which isn't great, but it's at least OK in PPR formats.
The problem is that Green owners are used to having him produce games like the one he had against the Miami Dolphins in Week 4. He racked up 10 catches for 173 yards and a touchdown in that one. Green had a 12-catch, 180-yard day against the New York Jets in the season opener.
This week's opponent is the New England Patriots, who present a problem for Green. The Patriots are extremely good at taking away an opponent's biggest strength. For Cincinnati, that strength is Green.
It doesn't help that the Patriots have a defense rated ninth overall by Pro Football Focus.
This doesn't mean all hope is lost for Green owners, though. Browns receiver Terrelle Pryor grabbed five passes for 48 yards last week against the Patriots and spent most of the game playing with fourth-string quarterback Charlie Whitehurst under center.
Green is worth a start this week, but expect something closer to last week's performance than the massive one against the Dolphins two weeks ago.
Comfort Level: Discount Inflatable Raft
Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals
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The Arizona Cardinals—and plenty of fantasy owners—were forced to play without quarterback Carson Palmer in Week 5. Palmer suffered a concussion a week earlier against the Los Angeles Rams and couldn't clear protocol in time to face the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday night.
The good news is that Palmer has at least been cleared to return to practice this week and could start on Monday night against the New York Jets.
Assuming Palmer can indeed go against the Jets, fantasy owners should be in for a treat.
Sure, Palmer has had his ups and downs this season, especially with turnovers. He tossed four interceptions against the Buffalo Bills in Week 3 and committed two more turnovers against the Rams in Week 4.
However, Palmer has also racked up his fair share of fantasy points this year. In just under four games, he has passed for 1,150 yards and six touchdowns. He has passed for at least 250 yards in each of his four games.
This week, Palmer gets to face a Jets defense that has been an complete disappointment thus far. The Jets are currently rated 31st in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus and are giving up an average of 27.2 points per game.
Palmer also gets to play the Jets at home and in prime time.
Comfort Level: Swedish Foam Mattress
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