The Bettor's Guide to NFL Week 8
We're now on our third straight winning week against the spread. The NFL is a bit chaotic early on in the season, but once you figure out where teams should be ranked from a power-ranking perspective, it becomes much easier to find value, even if it is small, in weekly point spreads.
By looking at the advanced math from FiveThirtyEight's Elo ratings, Football Outsiders' DVOA metrics and the Massey Ratings, you can get a good feel for where teams are at the halfway point in the season. From there, with the assistance of TeamRankings.com's database, long-term trends can be found for individual teams in specific situations, ranging from straight up record against the spread to how teams bounce back from losses historically.
Using those decoder rings, along with some matchup narratives, the ever-changing NFL becomes more linear and clear. As always, we fish for the best lines, on both sides of the line, from Odds Shark, and suggest a side to align with in every remaining game after reviewing Thursday Night Football.
Record ATS total: 46-51-2
Record ATS last week: 8-6
Jacksonville vs. Tennessee
1 of 14
The line: Tennessee -3
The result: Tennessee 36, Jacksonville 22
There was nothing surprising about this one. You won't make much money by betting the individual money lines against Jacksonville on the road, but if you would have done that during head coach Gus Bradley's entire career with the Jaguars, you can probably fund a down payment on a house by now.
The Jaguars have won two games on the road in the last three years: once against the Baltimore Ravens on an untimed field goal which stemmed from a penalty and this year against the Chicago Bears.
Unfortunately, we may not have much time to exploit this trend for much longer, as Bradley very well may be out the door with a 14-41 career record.
Tennessee completed 19-of-23 passes and also ran for over 200 yards on the ground. The Titans held a 27-0 lead at the half before letting their foot off the gas. They held the ball for 10 minutes longer than Jacksonville and also won the turnover battle.
There was nothing surprising about this one.
Cover: Tennessee
Washington vs. Cincinnati
2 of 14
Best Washington line: Washington +3
Best Cincinnati line: Cincinnati -2.5
Another London game? Another London game.
The Cincinnati Bengals are completely thrown off by pressure on the offensive side of the ball. One reason for their regression from their 12-4 2015 to their 3-4 2016 is how often quarterback Andy Dalton is getting sacked.
Cincinnati is currently second in the NFL with 22 allowed sacks over seven games, an average of over three sacks a game. Last year, only four teams finished with a higher pace of sacks allowed on a per game basis: Tennessee, Cleveland, San Francisco and Jacksonville.
Those teams combined for a 16-48 record, with all four of them finishing with top-seven draft selections in the following draft. There's no coincidence there. If you get sacked, your offense stalls. If your offense stalls, you lose football games.
This is problematic for a matchup with the Redskins, who have three pass-rushers in Ryan Kerrigan, Trent Murphy and Preston Smith. Kerrigan was a first-round pick coming out of the draft, while Murphy and Smith were second-round selections.
Kerrigan and Murphy are currently tied at the sixth slot league-wide on the sack leaderboard, while Smith led rookies in sacks last season. They are going to pose a problem for Cincinnati. Period.
Under quarterback Kirk Cousins, Washington is 6-3 against the spread after losing straight up the week before, per TeamRankings.com. The Bengals haven't been as lucky in terms of bounce-back games, especially this season, as they haven't covered a single game coming off a loss.
The pick: Washington +3
New York Jets vs. Cleveland
3 of 14
Best home line: Cleveland +3
Best away line: New York Jets -2.5
The Cleveland Browns are 2-5 against the spread this season according to TeamRankings.com. Not only are they not winning games, but they aren't even backdoor covering games at a high enough rate to be respected. They also have the worst average margin of victory in the league with minus-11.0.
Playing at home isn't helping them, either. They are 0-2 at home with an average margin of victory of minus-12.5 in those games, the worst marks in the NFL.
Currently, it's uncertain if Josh McCown, who started the year as the Browns' second-string passer and has only played in one game, Cody Kessler, a third-round rookie, or Kevin Hogan, a rookie who was cut by the Chiefs and has more rushing yards recorded than passing yards this season, will start.
The NFL is a game of reps. The New York Jets are known for their exotic blitzes and man coverage backend. How on Earth is Cleveland going to get three quarterbacks ready to start and diagnose those blitzes by splitting reps all week while they try to figure out who can go on Sunday?
The Jets also seem to rally around Ryan Fitzpatrick for whatever reason. Having him return to the lineup might have the same short-term effect of an interim head coach taking over.
There is no better "get right" opponent than this year's Browns.
The pick: New York Jets -2.5
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Seattle vs. New Orleans
4 of 14
Best home line: New Orleans +3.5
Best away line: Seattle -2.5
The Seattle Seahawks are 22-16-1 against the spread on the road since Russell Wilson joined Seattle, per TeamRankings.com. While that may seem like just a slight advantage, and it is, it's reflective of how consistent they are as a team, even on the road with inflated lines, largely as favorites.
With that being said, Seattle still has a 57.7 percent win rate against the spread as a road team. That really is a thin margin, but if you're hitting on bets at that rate, you can buy a casino eventually. Professionals are happy to hit 55 percent of their bets a year.
As long as this line is under the key number of three, it's a green light.
Some might try to stay away from this game because of last week's 6-6 tie, but there's little logic there outside of overreaction. We know Seattle can play defense, and Arizona had the fourth-best defense according to Football Outsiders' DVOA numbers, while the New Orleans Saints have the 29th-best defense per the metric.
This very well might be the annual "get right" game for the Seahawk offense.
The pick: Seattle -2.5
Kansas City vs. Indianapolis
5 of 14
Best home line: Indianapolis +3
Best away line: Kansas City -2.5
Andy Reid has been a head coach for so long in the NFL that some of his trends are damn near locks. Heading into Week 6, we told you he had a 15-2 record straight up after bye weeks. He's now at 16-2.
Another time to align yourself with Reid is when his teams are short road favorites. For example, over the last two seasons, the Chiefs are 6-1 against the spread as road favorites, according to TeamRankings.com.
According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, Indianapolis is the sixth-worst team in the NFL. Reid's teams rarely slip up on the road or out of a bye. There is no model of consistent coaching in the NFL better, at least in terms of what is expected out of his squad, than Reid, and Reid's team is significantly better than head coach Chuck Pagano's here.
The pick: Kansas City -2.5
Detroit vs. Houston
6 of 14
Best home line: Houston -1.5
Best away line: Detroit +3
According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metrics, the AFC South-leading Houston Texans are actually the third-worst team in the NFL right now. Houston is also coming off of a short week after being blown out on Monday Night Football against the Denver Broncos.
Since Detroit's bye week last season, offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter has developed quarterback Matthew Stafford into one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league. Without much of a running game, Stafford's posted 34 passing touchdowns and just six interceptions.
In Houston this season, quarterback Brock Osweiler has just eight passing touchdowns and eight interceptions. The Texans have a 3-0-1 record against the spread at home this season, per TeamRankings.com, but there are several teams with worse records against the spread who are beating projected home spreads by a larger margin this season.
Houston is your classic regression team, and trusting them on a short week, knowing they aren't going to win the quarterback battle, is an issue. In the four games since all-star defensive end J.J. Watt has been placed on the injured reserve list, the Texans have only won in regulation once.
The pick: Detroit +3
New England vs. Buffalo
7 of 14
Best home line: Buffalo +6
Best away line: New England -5
The Buffalo Bills are just 2-1 against the spread at home this season but, according to TeamRankings.com, they have the second-best rate of covering the spread by excess points in that situation in 2016. For the year in total, they are just 4-3 against the spread, but they are plus-7.7 against the spread on a per game average, the third-best mark in the league, with the next 4-3 on the list coming in with a plus-.09 mark in 10th place.
Buffalo isn't performing like a team with their record against the spread or straight up. Earlier this year, the Jacoby Brissett-led Patriots were four-point favorites against the Buffalo Bills at home. They lost by 16 points, a 20-point difference between the result and projected point spread.
So, the question now becomes this: How much is quarterback Tom Brady worth? Right now, the Bills are six-point underdogs at home, meaning they're nine points worse than the Patriots from a power-ranking standpoint.
Let's go over this real fast:
- The Bills were viewed as essential pick'ems against the Brissett Patriots from a power-ranking standpoint.
- The Brady Patriots are viewed as a team worth nine more points than the Brissett Patriots when accounting for home-field advantage.
- The Bills blew out the Brissett Patriots, which could lead you to believe that the line was inflated in the first place.
So we're to assume that Brady, one starter among 22 in New England, one player among 46 active on gameday, is worth a double-digit swing? This is the NFL. That's absurd.
The lack of LeSean McCoy may scare you, but the Patriots are favored on the road by a near touchdown against a top-10 team according to Football Outsiders' DVOA. New England, despite being great against the spread during Bill Belichick's tenure as a head coach, has a mortal 4-6 record against the spread as road favorites in the last two seasons.
The pick: Buffalo +6
Oakland vs. Tampa Bay
8 of 14
Best home line: Tampa Bay +1
Best away line: Oakland +1.5
With Jameis Winston at quarterback, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are just 2-4 against the spread as a home favorite, according to TeamRankings.com. As the head coach of the Oakland Raiders, Jack Del Rio has a 10-2 record against the spread as the road team.
The edge here is pretty easy to figure out. The two seed in the AFC is a road dog against a 3-3 team that hasn't won a home game all season and who beat teams with a combined record of 2-11 in the last six weeks.
The pick: Oakland +1.5
Arizona vs. Carolina
9 of 14
Best home line: Carolina -1
Best away line: Arizona +3
The Arizona Cardinals, who are 16-6-1 straight up over the last two seasons, have only been road underdogs twice in two years heading into this week according to TeamRankings.com. Now, they're three-point underdogs against the Carolina Panthers, viewed as equals, against a 1-5 team whose single win is against the one-win San Francisco 49ers.
What on Earth is happening here? Both of these teams have regressed since last season, but Arizona is currently in better shape than the Panthers. Here's a look at each team's 2015 and 2016 splits according to Football Outsiders' DVOA.
| Team | Year | Pass O | Run O | Pass D | Run D |
| Arizona | 2016 | 25th | 7th | 4th | 10th |
| Arizona | 2015 | 3rd | 16th | 4th | 2nd |
| Carolina | 2016 | 22nd | 5th | 27th | 6th |
| Carolina | 2015 | 9th | 6th | 2nd | 6th |
Both of these teams are living off of their 2015 credibility, and you can claim they are the most disappointing teams of 2016, but Carolina's regression in both the offensive and defensive passing games is massive. Per DVOA, Arizona is the 10th-best team in the league, while Carolina is ranked 24th.
Why are they valued as equal teams right now? The three-point line is going toward Carolina as the home team, but giving them credit as an equal to a team with two-and-a-half more wins than them this season is wrong.
The Panthers are 1-5 against the spread this season for a reason: We're giving them too much credit.
The pick: Arizona +3
San Diego vs. Denver
10 of 14
Best home line: Denver -4.5
Best away line: San Diego +6.5
According to TeamRankings.com, the Denver Broncos are just 3-6-1 against the spread over the last two years as home favorites, despite finishing 7-3 in those games straight up. At the same time, the San Diego Chargers, who tend to lose close if they do lose, are 9-3 against the spread as road underdogs over the last two years.
This one is fairly easy. The Broncos have been overrated for two years in terms of how they've been valued at home, while the Chargers are undervalued because of their straight up record. When you're gambling on point spreads, you aren't just picking who will win a game, and these two teams fall on the opposite spectrum of how the public doesn't necessarily understand that concept.
This line means that Denver would be a road favorite or pick'em candidate if they visited San Diego again, despite the fact that the Chargers already beat the Broncos by eight points in a two-score, one-possession game and had an 18-point lead over Denver in their first meeting of the season.
San Diego hasn't lost by more than six points all season.
The pick: San Diego +6.5
Green Bay vs. Atlanta
11 of 14
Best home line: Atlanta -2.5
Best away line: Green Bay +3
This is one of the hardest games to choose from on Sunday's slate. According to Football Outsiders' DVOA, the Green Bay Packers are one slot behind the Atlanta Falcons in terms of overall ranking this season.
At the same time, though, the Packers have the 10th-best offense in the league according to the metric, while also holding the league's seventh-best defense. The Falcons have the second-best offense, but will be missing running back Tevin Coleman, and have the 26th-best defense in the NFL, the worst projected unit on the field.
According to FiveThirtyEight's Elo rating, the Packers are four teams better than the Falcons from a power-ranking standpoint. The Massey Ratings also believe that Atlanta shouldn't be a three-point favorite at home, either.
It's not often that you see a 4-2 team being undervalued relative to a 4-3 team, but we're here. As long as this line is at the key number of three, it's worth it to align yourself with the Packers.
The pick: Green Bay +3
Philadelphia vs. Dallas
12 of 14
Best home line: Dallas -4.5
Best away line: Philadelphia +5
According to FiveThirtyEight's Elo ratings, the Philadelphia Eagles are valued more on a neutral field than the Dallas Cowboys. According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFL right now.
Why are the Dallas Cowboys 4.5-point favorites then? A home-field advantage is worth three points, and the Cowboys aren't even known for a great home-field advantage, as opposing fans are known to travel to Jerry World as often as they are to the West Coast during their autumn and winter vacations.
Since 2010, the Cowboys are just 9-29 against the spread as home favorites, per TeamRankings.com. Whenever people buy into Dallas, they buy into them just a little too much, which leads to massive value betting against the Cowboys.
The pick: Philadelphia +5
Minnesota vs. Chicago
13 of 14
Best home line: Chicago +6
Best away line: Minnesota -4
The Minnesota Vikings are 5-1. The Chicago Bears are 1-6. Without knowing anything else, you can predict who the favorite in this game is going to be, home or away.
Over the last two years, the Bears are just 3-8 against the spread at home according to TeamRankings.com. That's how bad this team is at home.
Their starting quarterback, Jay Cutler, was injured early in the season, and Brian Hoyer came off the bench to give this team as much of a spark as a 1-6 team can have. Hoyer is now injured and Cutler, who didn't even practice last week, is going to start in Week 8.
On the other hand, Minnesota's defense is a buzz saw, and the Bears don't have the pass-rush to attack their bookends like the Philadelphia Eagles did in the Vikings' first loss of the season. On the road, Minnesota is 9-2 against the spread over the last two years, and they're 19-5 overall.
This is a matchup between one squad that is very talented but is perpetually underrated and one squad that is not very talented but is perpetually overrated. Off a loss, the Vikings were 5-0 against the spread last season.
The pick: Minnesota -4
Locks of the Week
14 of 14
1) New England vs. Buffalo +6
2) Arizona +3 vs. Carolina
3) Washington +3 vs. Cincinnati
4) Minnesota -4 vs. Chicago
5) Oakland +1.5 vs. Tampa Bay
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