Week 5 NFL Picks: Over/Under Advice, Final-Score Predictions and Odds

One could argue the majority of the NFL's Week 5 lines form a rather easy slate. 

It's a dangerous trap to fall into, like believing in the Carolina Panthers.

While it is true the NFL continues to sort itself out and the contenders have worked through rough patches while struggling teams took advantage, it doesn't make the entire week predictable. Falling into such a lull is what the house wants.

So yes, the Minnesota Vikings will probably wallop the Houston Texans, and the Philadelphia Eagles will cruise against the Detroit Lions. But remember to take each game on a case-by-case basis to avoid the lull, even on short notice like this. Let's help with the work right at the deadline.

NFL Week 5 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Washington at Baltimore	BAL -4	46	BAL 20-17
Tennessee at Miami	MIA -3.5	43.5	TEN 21-17
Houston at Minnesota	MIN -7	39.5	MIN 26-14
Chicago at Indianapolis	IND -5	47.5	CHI 27-20
N.Y. Jets at Pittsburgh	PIT -8	48.5	PIT 33-20
Philadelphia at Detroit	PHI -3	46	PHI 28-14
New England at Cleveland	NE -11.5	46.5	NE 40-17
Atlanta at Denver	DEN -6	47.5	DEN 36-30
San Diego at Oakland	OAK -4	50	OAK 28-27
Buffalo at L.A. Rams	LA -1	40	LA 21-20
Cincinnati at Dallas	CIN -2	45.5	CIN 24-20
N.Y. Giants at Green Bay	GB -7	49	GB 32-24
Tampa Bay at Carolina (MNF)	CAR -6.5	46	CAR 27-20

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

 
Top Late Bets to Make

N.Y. Jets at Pittsburgh (-8)

O/U: 48.5

Feel free to have a field day with this one. 

Over the past couple of years, it was easy to look at a matchup between the New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers and think of a gritty defensive battle.

Now only one defense might show up.

Said defense belongs to the home team, which over three wins hasn't allowed more than 16 points in any of the games. New York quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick will help keep the Pittsburgh defense looking strong if his last two outings serve as a predictor—he's tossed nine interceptions over two games.

Despite the borderline comical issues, Jets head coach Todd Bowles isn't ready to throw in the towel on his starter, as captured by NFL Network's Kimberly Jones:

To be fair to Fitzpatrick and the Jets, the schedule hasn't done any favors. Going against Cincinnati, Kansas City and Seattle to start the season was about as rough as it could get (until one remembers the Jets still have to deal with Pittsburgh and Arizona).

The problem? Pittsburgh smashed both Cincinnati (24-16) and Kansas City (43-14), helping showcase at least one portion of the disparity between these sides.

The Jets clearly have problems passing the ball, while lead back Matt Forte hasn't been too effective, with a 3.6 per-carry average. Call it a doomsday scenario against a Pittsburgh team at home with running back Le'Veon Bell back in the fold.

Also call it an easy bet.

Prediction: Steelers 33-20

New England (-11.5) at Cleveland

O/U: 46.5

Just do it.

Finding inspiration in a popular company slogan is the way to go when the New England Patriots visit the Cleveland Browns.

A double-digit line isn't always the best move to take, but this is far from a normal contest. Tom Brady returns for this game, making an exception to the "that's why they play the game" rule.

Brady's team won three of four without him, and all the emotions that come with a suspension in the first place, not to mention the reputation hit in the eyes of the public, come full circle against the Browns.

The Browns, a team that has yet to win a game, are starting a third-round rookie under center (Cody Kessler), and whose best player at quarterback, running back and wide receiver might all be the same person (Terrelle Pryor).

Partial joke aside, Cleveland rushes the ball well behind the ever-churning legs of Isaiah Crowell, who has 394 yards and a trio of scores on an average of 6.5 yards per carry. The problem, though, is a potent ground game won't be enough to keep up once the Patriots pull ahead.

Which they should. Brady is back, Rob Gronkowski played last week, Julian Edelman still exists and New England has a potent back of its own in LeGarrette Blount (352 yards, four touchdowns).

Sometimes a contest going as expected makes for a boring scenario—but it can also be a lucrative one.

Prediction: Patriots 40-17

Cincinnati (-2) at Dallas

O/U: 45.5

Sometimes injuries take what already looked like a somewhat predictable encounter and push it over the edge.

Take Sunday when the Cincinnati Bengals visit the Dallas Cowboys. The visitor enters as the favorite, and rightfully so—Dallas has looked solid given the circumstances, but the biggest circumstance is the absence of starting quarterback Tony Romo. Given that, the visitor better be the favorite.

But it gets worse for the home team. Guard La'el Collins is out, left tackle Tyron Smith might return after a back injury cost him a few weeks, corner Orlando Scandrick is a question mark and star wideout Dez Byrant doesn't seem ready to return.

Gary Landers/Associated Press

The injuries mean Cincinnati holds an advantage on both sides of the ball. An Andy Dalton-led offense won't have problems getting the ball to A.J. Green (32 catches, 468 yards, two scores) if Scandrick misses the game.

On the other side, a strong defense can capitalize on a Dallas offense led by a rookie at quarterback and running back, Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, respectively.

"They have a great, great front seven," Prescott said, according to ESPN.com. "We know we've got a pretty good stretch coming up starting this Sunday with the Bengals. We're confident, our team, our offense, in the direction we're headed."

The Bengals will look to shutter Elliott's running lanes to force Prescott to the air, a scenario capable of producing plenty of mistakes. Look for one or two to define what should be a defensive affair hitting on the under. 

Prediction: Bengals 24-20

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

Follow Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) on Twitter.