NLDS 2016: Dodgers vs. Nationals Position-by-Position Breakdown, Predictions
Friday night at Nationals Park, we'll see something we haven't seen in more than 30 years: playoff baseball between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals.
Of course, the last time these two teams met in the postseason, in the 1981 National League Championship Series, the Nationals were known as the Montreal Expos.
Nationals manager Dusty Baker was a 32-year-old star for the Dodgers that season, while Dodgers manager Dave Roberts was nine years old. Most of the players about to partake in the National League Division Series between the two clubs had yet to be born.
It's been a long time.
How do these two clubs stack up? Which team will be the last one standing when the NLDS comes to an end? Let's take a look.
Catcher
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2016 Stats
 | Yasmani Grandal | 126 | .228/.816 | 27 | 72 | 122 |
 | Jose Lobaton | 39 | .232/.692 | 3 | 8 | 84 |
With all due respect to Jose Lobaton, who has carved out a career as a solid backup catcher and won Game 3 of the 2013 American League Championship Series for the Tampa Bay Rays with a walk-off solo shot off the Boston Red Sox's Koji Uehara, this one isn't close.
It would be close if Wilson Ramos could play, but he can't. The 29-year-old All-Star's season came to an end nearly two weeks ago when he tore his ACL against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Ramos was hitting .307 with 22 home runs, 80 RBI and an .850 OPS when he went down with the injury.
Not only is Yasmani Grandal superior to Lobaton offensively, but Baseball Prospectus also puts him right alongside Buster Posey as the two best pitch-framing catchers in baseball.
Advantage: Dodgers
First Base
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2016 Stats
| Adrian Gonzalez | 156 | .285/.784 | 18 | 90 | 113 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 115 | .218/.642 | 15 | 46 | 67 |
Adrian Gonzalez and Ryan Zimmerman are a pair of past-their-prime veterans, but Zimmerman's fall from stardom has been far less graceful. Of the 175 batters with at least 450 plate appearances on the season, Zimmerman ranks 168th in OPS and 170th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+).
Gonzalez's numbers look better than they actually are, boosted by a two-month tear in July and August that saw him hit .323 with 10 home runs, 40 RBI and a .919 OPS. The rest of the season saw him hit .265 with eight home runs, 40 RBI and more than twice as many strikeouts (83) than walks (40).
While that's far below his usual level of production, it's still better than what Zimmerman offers.
Advantage: Dodgers
Second Base
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2016 Stats
| Chase Utley | 138 | .252/.716 | 14 | 52 | 97 |
| Daniel Murphy | 142 | .347/.985 | 25 | 104 | 156 |
Daniel Murphy, who strained his left glute late in the regular season, stopped short of committing to playing in Game 1 when asked by reporters. Baker left little doubt that the MVP candidate would be in Washington's lineup.
“Would you take 80 percent of Daniel Murphy or 100 percent of somebody else?" Baker rhetorically asked reporters, per the Washington Post's Chelsea Janes. "This guy knows what it’s like to be in the playoffs and to be a playoff hero."
He sure does, Dusty. And while Chase Utley has put together a solid season for the Dodgers, 80 percent of Murphy is better than what Utley offers at full strength. So long as Murphy's injured backside doesn't hold him back, the Nationals have a huge advantage at the keystone.
Advantage: Nationals
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Third Base
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2016 Stats
| Justin Turner | 151 | .275/.832 | 27 | 90 | 124 |
| Anthony Rendon | 156 | .270/.797 | 20 | 85 | 112 |
There's not a more evenly matched position between the Dodgers and Nationals than at third base, where you couldn't go wrong with either Justin Turner or Anthony Rendon, who are both versatile enough to play other positions but profile best at the hot corner.
Solid defenders who hit for average and power, flipping a coin seems like a reasonable way to determine which team has the edge. But we're all out of change.
This tidbit from MLB.com's Mike Petriello was the deciding factor: "Would you believe that over the last three seasons, the only third basemen to outhit Justin Turner (138 wRC+) are Josh Donaldson (146 wRC+) and Kris Bryant (143 wRC+)?"
Believe it.
Slim Advantage: Dodgers
Shortstop
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2016 Stats
| Corey Seager | 157 | .308/.877 | 26 | 72 | 137 |
| Danny Espinosa | 156 | .209/.684 | 24 | 72 | 79 |
We'll take a page from Stewie Griffin and serve up a pair of compliment sandwiches at shortstop. For the unfamiliar, a compliment sandwich is where you start with something good, offer a criticism and then finish with something good.
Danny Espinosa's sandwich—he hits for power, he isn't Corey Seager and he plays solid defense.
Corey Seager's sandwich—he's the NL Rookie of the Year, he won't win the NL MVP Award and, yeah, he's Corey Seager.
"I know Kris Bryant will get a lot of the MVP votes," San Diego Padres bench coach Mark McGwire recently told B/R's Scott Miller. "But to me, if Corey Seager wasn't playing shortstop and doing what he's done, I don't know if the Dodgers would be in the playoffs. I really, really hope people sit down and think about an MVP vote for him."
Advantage: Dodgers
Left Field
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2016 Stats
| Howie Kendrick | 146 | .255/.691 | 8 | 40 | 91 |
| Andrew Toles | 48 | .314/.870 | 3 | 16 | 132 |
| Jayson Werth | 143 | .244/.752 | 21 | 69 | 101 |
Andrew Toles has been impressive in limited playing time, but the battle in left field is between Howie Kendrick and Jayson Werth, seasoned veterans whose best baseball is behind them.
Both Kendrick and Werth are below-average defenders, but Werth is still an average run producer. Kendrick isn't, having taken a small step back in that department. But it's close enough that they cancel each other out.
So, too, do their postseason track records, with both having achieved their greatest individual playoff successes more than six years ago.
Kendrick hit .286 with a .976 OPS against the New York Yankees in the 2009 ALCS for the Los Angeles Angels, while Werth posted an OPS above .985 in six of eight playoff series for the Philadelphia Phillies from 2008 through 2010. Neither has done much in the playoffs since then.
Advantage: Push
Center Field
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2016 Stats
| Joc Pederson | 137 | .246/.847 | 25 | 68 | 129 |
| Trea Turner | 73 | .342/.937 | 13 | 40 | 147 |
While he still struggles to hit for average, Joc Pederson put together a better season than most people realize in Los Angeles. One of four Dodgers to crack the 20-home run mark, Pederson's power is real, but his aggressiveness at the plate limits his ability to hit for average, which also describes his defense.
Trea Turner, who would arguably be the favorite to take home NL Rookie of the Year Award honors were it not for Corey Seager, has been nothing but stellar since Washington began to give him regular playing time.
An infielder for most of his career, Turner's defense in center field isn't great. But his world-class speed allows him to get to balls that others, including Pederson, have no shot at. And he's a legitimate table-setter atop the Nationals lineup, going 33-for-39 in stolen-base attempts.
Advantage: Nationals
Right Field
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2016 Stats
| Yasiel Puig | 104 | .263/.740 | 11 | 45 | 102 |
| Josh Reddick | 47 | .258/.643 | 2 | 9 | 78 |
| Bryce Harper | 147 | .243/.814 | 24 | 86 | 112 |
With the reigning National League MVP, Bryce Harper, entrenched in right field for the Nationals, this shouldn't be a close contest. But Harper hasn't mounted a strong defense of his hardware, allowing the Dodgers' two-headed monster of Yasiel Puig and Josh Reddick to close the gap.
Neither Puig nor Reddick had great seasons, either, with Puig being demoted to the minor leagues after the Dodgers acquired Reddick, who was brutal over his first month in Los Angeles (.161 BA, .396 OPS, 12 wRC+).
While all three players are capable of getting hot and carrying their teams, Harper remains the most talented of the bunch, and his numbers, while down from a year ago, are still superior to his competition in Dodger blue.
That gives the Nationals the slightest of advantages.
Advantage: Nationals
Starting Rotation
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2016 Stats
| Clayton Kershaw | 21 | 1.69/0.72 | 149.0 | 11 | 172 |
| Rich Hill | 6 | 1.83/0.79 | 34.1 | 5 | 39 |
| Kenta Maeda | 32 | 3.48/1.14 | 175.2 | 50 | 179 |
| Julio Urias | 15 | 3.25/1.39 | 69.1 | 27 | 77 |
| Max Scherzer | 34 | 2.96/0.97 | 228.1 | 56 | 284 |
| Gio Gonzalez | 32 | 4.57/1.34 | 177.1 | 59 | 171 |
| Tanner Roark | 33 | 2.86/1.19 | 207.2 | 73 | 170 |
| Joe Ross | 19 | 3.43/1.30 | 105.0 | 29 | 93 |
Both the Dodgers (Brett Anderson, Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-Jin Ryu) and Nationals (Stephen Strasburg) are missing key pieces of their respective rotations but still feature formidable pitching staffs, led by arguably the two best pitchers in baseball, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer.
Kershaw's postseason struggles have been well-documented. His 4.59 ERA in the playoffs is more than two full runs higher than his career regular-season mark (2.39), and his 1.16 postseason WHIP, while respectable, is still significantly higher than his 1.00 regular-season mark.
After Kershaw, the Dodgers rotation is full of talented arms who lack postseason experience. Rich Hill is the only other Los Angeles starter to have pitched in the playoffs—three forgettable innings for the Chicago Cubs back in 2007.
Scherzer hasn't been his usual dominant self in the playoffs, either, with a 3.73 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, while Gio Gonzalez has struggled with his command in the playoffs, issuing 12 walks over 14 innings of work.
If Strasburg was healthy enough to pitch, the pendulum would swing in Washington's favor. But he's not, so it remains slightly tilted toward Los Angeles.
Slim Advantage: Dodgers
Key Bullpen Arms
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2016 Stats
| Kenley Jansen | 71 | 1.83/0.67 | 11 | 104 | 47-for-53 |
| Pedro Baez | 73 | 3.04/1.00 | 22 | 83 | 0-for-2 |
| Joe Blanton | 75 | 2.48/0.81 | 26 | 80 | 0-for-1 |
| Mark Melancon | 34 | 1.82/1.01 | 3 | 27 | 17-for-17 |
| Shawn Kelley | 67 | 2.28/1.22 | 11 | 80 | 7-for-9 |
| Blake Treinen | 73 | 2.86/1.19 | 31 | 63 | 1-for-3 |
The Dodgers (3.35) have the slightest of edges in regular-season bullpen ERA over the Nationals (3.37), and it's nearly impossible to argue that either side has the advantage in the ninth inning, with Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon being two of the best closers in all the land.
Losing Adam Liberatore to elbow surgery is a bigger blow to Los Angeles' bullpen than many realize, but the Dodgers' relief corps is deep enough that Pedro Baez has been able to slide into a setup role with relative ease, while former starter Joe Blanton has found new life in the late innings.
Shawn Kelley and Blake Treinen don't get nearly enough attention for their efforts in getting the ball to Melancon, who has been a massive upgrade in the ninth inning for the Nationals over Jonathan Papelbon, who will be watching the playoffs from the comfort of his living room.
This one is too close to call.
Advantage: Push
Predictions
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Losing Wilson Ramos and not having Stephen Strasburg available are crushing blows to the Nationals, who have to face the Dodgers, a team they dropped five of six regular-season contests to, without two of their most important players.
Were either one healthy and able to contribute, it'd be easier to get behind Washington as a legitimate threat to go on a deep playoff run. But they aren't—and we can't.
It won't be a cake walk for Los Angeles, which holds a five-to-three advantage in our position-by-position breakdown.
But the Dodgers, with a stronger battery than the Nationals, will advance past the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 2013, when they lost the NLCS to the St. Louis Cardinals in six games.
Prediction: Dodgers in four
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs and are current through Oct. 6.
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