NFL Predictions Week 5: Odds, Predictions and Advice for Ideal Underdogs

Those who love a good upset in the NFL have flourished this season.

Upsets offer epic payouts at times, so it makes sense a culture embedded in rooting for the underdog gravitates there—the added rewards are just a bonus. Look at Week 4, as those who decided to roll against the New England Patriots, Detroit Lions, Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals all came out ahead.

For those who didn't make headway in the bankroll department, Week 5 would be the time to hop aboard the upset train. A casual glance at the slate suggests a few upsets—a deeper dive all but assures it.

Here's a full look at the schedule and some contests featuring notable underdogs.

NFL Week 5 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Arizona at San Francisco (TNF)	ARI -2.5	42.5	SF 23-20
Washington at Baltimore	BAL -4	46	BAL 20-17
Tennessee at Miami	MIA -3.5	43.5	TEN 21-17
Houston at Minnesota	MIN -6	39.5	MIN 26-14
Chicago at Indianapolis	IND -4.5	47.5	CHI 27-20
N.Y. Jets at Pittsburgh	PIT -7	48.5	PIT 33-24
Philadelphia at Detroit	PHI -1	46	PHI 28-14
New England at Cleveland	NE -10	46.5	NE 40-17
Atlanta at Denver	DEN -6.5	47.5	DEN 36-30
San Diego at Oakland	OAK -3.5	50	OAK 28-27
Buffalo at L.A. Rams	LA -3	40	LA 21-20
Cincinnati at Dallas	DAL -1.5	45.5	CIN 24-20
N.Y. Giants at Green Bay	GB -7	49	GB 32-24
Tampa Bay at Carolina (MNF)	N/A	N/A	CAR 27-20

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Advice for Ideal Underdogs

Arizona (-2.5) at San Francisco

On the road and likely without their starting quarterback, the aforementioned Cardinals continue to somehow stand as the favorites ahead of Thursday Night Football. 

Now is a good time for bettors to show some faith in the San Francisco 49ers.

The Cardinals took a major loss last week, falling 17-13 to the Los Angeles Rams and making it two losses in a row. In fact, Arizona hasn't even come close to living up to Super Bowl expectations: Its only win in four attempts came against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

To top it all off, Arizona lost quarterback Carson Palmer to a concussion:

So yes, San Francisco looks like a great underdog. Granted, the 49ers have lost three in a row, but the first two games of the skid were road contests against the Panthers and Seattle Seahawks.

Quarterback Blaine Gabbert hasn't posted inspiring play yet, but running back Carlos Hyde has looked great with 299 yards and five scores on a 4.1 per-carry average.

In the second meeting between these teams last year, San Francisco went down swinging by six points while holding Palmer to 271 yards, with Gabbert throwing for 318 yards and a score despite Shaun Draughn starting at running back.

In a gritty NFC West encounter, the 49ers will nail a late field goal to win against a hobbled Cardinals team.

Prediction: 49ers 23-20

Tennessee at Miami (-3.5)

Maybe bettors don't want to count on the Tennessee Titans or Miami Dolphins this year. 

Fair enough. But a solid upset opportunity resides here with the Dolphins playing at home and getting the favorite nod.

Miami is the worse of the two teams—its only win so far came at home against the Cleveland Browns. The team flirted with relevancy in a 12-10 loss to the Seahawks to start the season, but it turns out the close game was more a result of problems for the Seahawks.

Speaking of problems, the Dolphins have plenty. The defense allowed New England backup Jimmy Garoppolo to toss a trio of scores in a 31-24 loss, then turned around and needed overtime to beat the Browns 30-24 while allowing 244 passing yards to Cody Kessler.

Marcus Mariota and DeMarco Murray should take advantage of Miami's defense. Mariota has thrown for 925 yards and added another 72 on the ground already. Murray, meanwhile, is one of the season's biggest surprises, as the Tennessean's Jason Wolf helped to point out:

This improving offense can control the clock on the road, while the defense, which held the Lions and Oakland Raiders to less than 20 points apiece, can stifle the ineffective Ryan Tannehill while likely not having to worry about the injured Arian Foster.

It won't be pretty, but it doesn't matter so long as the box score works out in favor of the underdog.

Prediction: Titans 21-17

Chicago at Indianapolis (-4.5)

The first instinct in this epic Super Bowl XLI rematch is to take the Indianapolis Colts over the Chicago Bears and ride toward an easy payout.

Nothing is easy about it, though. These teams have a combined 2-6 record, and one could argue the Bears have looked better as of late, improving despite their swath of injuries.

The Colts have Andrew Luck (1,147 yards, eight touchdowns) and nothing else to speak of. He's getting zero help, and the defense has already allowed a trio of 30-point outings, including last week's 30-27 humbling at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

It's so bad the Colts just cut two defensive starters, according to Kevin Bowen of the team's official website:

The outlook is much brighter for the Bears, who are coming off their first win of the season while backup Brian Hoyer started under center. With an improved approach, Hoyer tossed a pair of touchdowns, and the defense held Detroit's offense to 14 points.

In fact, Hoyer was so impressive with the game plan built around him that head coach John Fox won't reveal whether the offense will go back to Jay Cutler when the starter gets healthy, according to Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune:

While the Colts continue to spiral out of control due to a history of misguided moves, the Bears have started to figure out how to work with what's available.

This stark difference in direction will show on the field Sunday. Chicago's offense has a rhythm now and won't have a problem moving the ball. Luck will pull some magic, but like plenty of times to come this season, it won't be enough.

Prediction: Bears 27-20

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

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