Week 5 NFL Picks: Full Lines, Best Odds, Spread Advice and Predictions

Week 5 marks the return of New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, making for one of the easier weeks of NFL picks on the entire season.

Here's a sentence any bettor can fall in love with: Brady gets the Cleveland Browns.

In all seriousness, Week 4 had its ups and downs. Mostly, though, things continued to normalize with favorites such as the Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings picking up wins.

There was an oddity here and there (the Atlanta Falcons upsetting the Carolina Panthers, anyone?), but bettors do have a solid sample size to work with when it comes to going against the house. Here is a look at Week 5.

NFL Week 5 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Arizona at San Francisco (TNF)	ARI -2.5	42.5	SF 23-20
Washington at Baltimore	BAL -4	46	BAL 20-17
Tennessee at Miami	MIA -3.5	43.5	TEN 21-17
Houston at Minnesota	MIN -6	39.5	MIN 26-14
Chicago at Indianapolis	IND -4.5	47.5	CHI 27-20
N.Y. Jets at Pittsburgh	PIT -7	48.5	PIT 33-24
Philadelphia at Detroit	PHI -1	46	PHI 28-14
New England at Cleveland	NE -10	46.5	NE 40-17
Atlanta at Denver	DEN -6.5	47.5	DEN 36-30
San Diego at Oakland	OAK -3.5	50	OAK 28-27
Buffalo at L.A. Rams	LA -3	40	LA 21-20
Cincinnati at Dallas	DAL -1.5	45.5	CIN 24-20
N.Y. Giants at Green Bay	GB -7	49	GB 32-24
Tampa Bay at Carolina (MNF)	N/A	N/A	CAR 27-20

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Best Early-Week Odds

Houston at Minnesota (-6)

It doesn't get much more straightforward than this for bettors.

The Vikings got a mention in the intro for good reason, though before Week 1, it wouldn't have been predictable after the team lost a starting quarterback. Alas, the Vikings look like one of the best teams in the league thanks to an elite defense and the play of veteran Sam Bradford under center.

On the other side are the Houston Texans, one of the most disappointing teams in the league. While 3-1, Houston has received all of five touchdowns to six interceptions from big signee Brock Osweiler.

The Houston offense has had the following miserable outings:

WK
1	vs. CHI	W 23-14
2	vs. KC	W 19-12
3	at NE	L 27-0
4	vs. TEN	W 27-20

Minnesota might be the best defense Houston will face all year. The Vikings have yet to allow more than 16 points while recording 15 sacks and six interceptions.

Normally, Houston's offense would seem like a decent idea here in large part thanks to DeAndre Hopkins. No dice—Minnesota held Carolina's Kelvin Benjamin without a catch before limiting New York's Odell Beckham Jr. to three catches for 23 yards on Monday Night Football.

In fact, the Vikings having to trot out on a short week might be the only advantage the Texans have here. It's a small one and not worth a bet, with J.J. Watt out and a new-look offense not even sniffing what many thought it would be (new back Lamar Miller hasn't scored). Bank on the Vikings to clear this hurdle at home with relative ease.

Prediction: Vikings 26-14

Philadelphia (-1) at Detroit

Here's a line bettors will want to jump on before it takes a leap of its own into the undesirable category. 

Right now, it's one of the best lines available. For whatever reason, Las Vegas has decided the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles aren't much of a favorite against the one-win Detroit Lions.

Fine, right? Philadelphia has looked great under the guidance of rookie quarterback Carson Wentz, who has tossed five touchdowns to no picks. Doubters will point out the first two games of the season came against Cleveland and the Chicago Bears, but keep in mind the Eagles whipped the Steelers 34-3 before a bye week.

For those keeping track of the favorites this week, it's been quite an odd year, as Jason Wolf of the Tennessean pointed out:

Detroit hasn't looked anywhere near as impressive. The Lions started the season with a win, yet they just topped off a three-game skid by gifting Chicago its first win of the season in a drab 17-14 affair.

In fact, Matthew Stafford has a 66.7 completion percentage and seven touchdowns to four picks, but he hasn't been able to overcome the offseason loss of Calvin Johnson, with his offense mustering 15 and 14 points in two recent losses.

Defense, though, makes this an easy affair to pick. The Lions let Chicago backup Brian Hoyer gun for 302 yards and a pair of scores last week, meaning the rookie Wentz can have his way with the unit while leaning on wideout Jordan Matthews and tight end Zach Ertz.

Also lost in all of this is the fact Philadelphia hasn't allowed more than 14 points in a game. The Eagles will take advantage of a sputtering Detroit offense while Wentz slices up a miserable defense.

Prediction: Eagles 28-14

New England (-10) at Cleveland

Nine times out of 10, it is best for bettors to avoid a double-digit line.

This is the one exception.

Brady is back after serving a four-game suspension. This would normally be scary enough for a team like the Browns, but this gets amplified by the fact the Patriots went ahead and won three games in his absence, even besting a supposed contender in the Arizona Cardinals.

ESPN.com's Mike Reiss captured Brady's thoughts:

Though slightly unexpected, Cleveland has yet to grab a win on the season. Call it a wildly disappointing ride. In order: Cleveland lost in a blowout, blew a huge lead, lost in overtime and lost in another blowout.

To be fair, one can tell by watching the Browns play that the players haven't given up on the season. But the roster isn't good enough, not even with Isaiah Crowell rushing out of his mind (394 yards, three touchdowns, 6.5 yards per carry) or Terrelle Pryor leading the team in receiving.

For a moment, forget the fact this is Brady's return. Rob Gronkowski only has one catch on the year. LeGarrette Blount, despite opposing defenses understanding Brady isn't under center, has rushed for 352 yards and four scores. Second tight end Martellus Bennett leads the team in receiving with 15 catches for 247 yards and a score.

Now add Brady back into the equation. This game might go down in Cleveland, but bettors will want to jump on the current spread because it seems likely the number could keep rising.

Prediction: Patriots 40-17

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

Follow Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) on Twitter.