NFL Picks Week 5: Over-Under Vegas Lines, Expert Predictions and Odds
Even though we're just a month into the 2016 NFL season, most football teams are busy figuring out how to win despite losing key players. Injuries are commonplace in this brutal game, and adjusting to the loss of key personnel is just part of the deal as the season moves along.
While the ever-growing injury reports will certainly have an influence on how teams perform in Week 5, it's actually the return of one franchise cornerstone that is the big story of the week.
Tom Brady is all set to play this week for the New England Patriots after serving a four-game suspension for deflating footballs. The Patriots are coming off a 16-0 loss to the Buffalo Bills but will look to get back on track on the road against the woeful Cleveland Browns.
It may seem unfair that as most teams are dealing with injuries, the Patriots are sitting comfortably at 3-1 and just now getting their most important player back, but hey, that's how dynasties roll.
It's going to be pretty easy to pick the Pats to win this week, but not every game is going to be so clear-cut. For some help making predictions for the upcoming week, here's a look at the latest spreads, over-under lines and expert picks from around the web.
| Thursday, Oct. 6 | 8:25 p.m. | Arizona Cardinals (-3) at San Francisco 49ers | 42 | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | 49ers | Cardinals 60% |
| Sunday, Oct. 9 | 1 p.m. | Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) | 40 | Vikings | Vikings | Vikings | Vikings | Vikings 73% |
| Sunday, Oct. 9 | 1 p.m. | Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) | 47.5 | Colts | Colts | Colts | Colts | Colts 66% |
| Sunday, Oct. 9 | 1 p.m. | New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) | 48.5 | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers 75% |
| Sunday, Oct. 9 | 1 p.m. | Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-3.5) | 43.5 | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins 72% |
| Sunday, Oct. 9 | 1 p.m. | Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Detroit Lions | 46 | Eagles | Lions | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles 54% |
| Sunday, Oct. 9 | 1 p.m. | New England Patriots (-10.5) at Cleveland Browns | 46.5 | Patriots | Patriots | Patriots | Patriots | Patriots 75% |
| Sunday, Oct. 9 | 1 p.m. | Washington at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) | 45 | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens 64% |
| Sunday, Oct. 9 | 4:05 p.m. | Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-5.5) | 47 | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos 77% |
| Sunday, Oct. 9 | 4:25 p.m. | Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys (even) | 45.5 | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Cowboys | Cowboys 51% |
| Sunday, Oct. 9 | 4:25 p.m. | San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (-3.5) | 49.5 | Raiders | Raiders | Chargers | Raiders | Raiders 64% |
| Sunday, Oct. 9 | 4:25 p.m. | Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams (-2) | 39 | Rams | Bills | Bills | Bills | Rams 54% |
| Sunday, Oct. 9 | 8:30 p.m. | New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7.5) | 48 | Packers | Packers | Packers | Packers | Packers 76% |
| Monday, Oct. 10 | 8:30 p.m. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (N/A) | N/A | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers 80% |
Note: Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday, October 6th at 7 a.m. ET. Expert picks are straight up and courtesy of CBS Sports, Fox Sports ESPN.com, SB Nation and FiveThirtyEight.
The Undefeateds
For the most part, the experts and oddsmakers see the Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles continue their winning ways in Week 5.
The Eagles have a tough matchup on the road against the Detroit Lions, but are coming off a bye week and should be well rested. Rookie quarterback Carson Wentz has had a brilliant start to his career, throwing for 769 passing yards and five touchdowns without a turnover.
This may not be the week he starts to look his age, as the Lions are allowing opposing quarterbacks a 120.2 rating this year, the worst mark in the league per ESPN.com.
Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is throwing the ball a ton to start the season but hasn't been all that effective. Golden Tate has been a major disappointment this year so far, and the running game has been adequate at best and is missing the spark of Ameer Abdullah, who was averaging 5.6 yards per carry before succumbing to a foot injury.
The Eagles' defense has been sharp to start the year, but if Stafford can play up to his capabilities and get the Eagles into a bit of a shootout, the Lions have a chance in this one. Wentz is still a rookie after all and hasn't yet had to deal with the pressure of a back-and-forth offensive battle.
Of course, this requires the Eagles allowing far more than the 9.0 points per game their allowing through three contests. Former Lions coach Jim Schwartz is coordinating the Eagles defense, and has garnered praise for the work he's done so far this year.
“(They’re) doing a really good job of getting after the passer,” Stafford said, per the Detroit News' Justin Rodgers. “He’s got the front playing extremely hard. They’re smart, they’re in the right place the majority of the time, which means they’re being coached well.”
The Lions will have to be firing on all cylinders to put any sort of pressure on Wentz and company.
The Vikings and Broncos are both at home in Week 5, taking on the Texans and Falcons, respectively.
Minnesota's defense has been fantastic to start the year, suffocating offenses both through the air and on the ground. Everson Griffen and Linval Joseph are absolute monsters up front, swallowing up running backs and collapsing pockets with ease. Joseph especially has garnered praise for his play this season and was in fine form in Week 4 against his former squad, the New York Giants, per Bleacher Report's Matt Miller:
In the secondary, there are no glaring weaknesses. One might think 38-year-old cornerback Terence Newman would be the weak link in that unit, but he's been incredible this year, per Pro Football Focus' Mike Renner:
As long as the rushing attack remains adequate and Sam Bradford continues to play measured, mistake-free football, the Vikings should have little trouble putting up the requisite points to win games. It's amazing how this team has responded to injuries to Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson. A 5-0 start is a distinct possibility.
As for the Broncos, who boast a defense even more terrifying than that of the Vikings, they have what could be a mighty task this week in slowing down the Falcons.
In a 48-33 Week 4 win over the Carolina Panthers, Matt Ryan threw for 503 yards, with 300 of those going to Julio Jones. Ryan leads the league in passing yards this season with 1,473 and has 11 touchdowns against two picks this year. This juggernaut of an offense isn't only remarkable through the air, as the Falcons rank sixth in the league in total rushing yards (498) and tied for third in yards per carry (4.7).
The Broncos are certainly well-equipped to shoot down the Falcons' high-flying attack. Von Miller leads the league with 5.5 sacks and will put incredible pressure on Ryan. Jones, on the other hand, will have to deal with a pair of Pro Bowl corners in Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr.
Either one of those guys, more likely Talib, is capable of handling Jones on their own at least some of the time (certainly not always), allowing the rest of the Broncos defense to handle its business and shut down the other key components of the Falcons' attack.
Denver's offense has been fared well under first-year starter Trevor Siemian, who has thrown for 824 yards and six touchdowns against three picks this year. The Falcons lowly defense could provide a good opportunity for him to bolster his stats, and running back C.J. Anderson should have little trouble finding room to gallop to provide balance.
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