NFL Week 5 Predictions: Early Vegas Odds Advice, Lines and Spread Picks
The fourth week of the 2016 NFL season is nearly complete, and if we've learned anything over the first month, it's that making accurate predictions can be tricky.
The New England Patriots, for instance, shocked nearly everyone when they blew out the Houston Texans in Week 3 with rookie third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett under center. Brissett and the Patriots turned around in Week 4 to do the unthinkable against the Buffalo Bills.
The Patriots got themselves shut out in Foxborough.
The first month has brought us some other surprises as well. Sure, we expected the Patriots to possibly lose a couple of games with Tom Brady suspended. However, few could have predicted the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals would both open the year at 1-3.
Trying to predict the outcome of individual games has been perhaps even more challenging than predicting the NFL landscape at large. More than a few people were probably surprised when the Los Angeles Rams got their third win of the season in Arizona on Sunday. Those same folks were probably surprised when the Pittsburgh Steelers secured a massive 29-point victory over the Kansas City Chiefs.
Well, Week 5 is already shaping up to be another slate full of surprises. We're going to take a look at that slate, the early odds for each game and some important individual matchups. We'll also be making our picks against the spread.
Early odds provided by Odds Shark.
| Thur. 10/6 | Arizona at San Francisco | No Line Given | Arizona |
| Sun. 10/9 | Tennessee at Miami | MIA -3.5 | Tennessee |
| Sun. 10/9 | Washington at Baltimore | BAL -4 | Baltimore |
| Sun. 10/9 | Chicago at Indianapolis | IND -4.5 | Indianapolis |
| Sun. 10/9 | NY Jets at Pittsburgh | PIT -7 | Pittsburgh |
| Sun. 10/9 | Houston at Minnesota | MIN -6 | Minnesota |
| Sun. 10/9 | New England at Cleveland | NE -10 | New England |
| Sun. 10/9 | Philadelphia at Detroit | PHI -1 | Philadelphia |
| Sun. 10/9 | Atlanta at Denver | DEN -6.5 | Atlanta |
| Sun. 10/9 | Buffalo at Los Angeles | LA -3 | Los Angeles |
| Sun. 10/9 | San Diego at Oakland | OAK -3.5 | Oakland |
| Sun. 10/9 | Cincinnati at Dallas | DAL -1.5 | Cincinnati |
| Sun. 10/9 | NY Giants at Green Bay | GB -7 | NY Giants |
| Mon. 10/10 | Tampa Bay at Carolina | No Line Given | Carolina |
Matchups to Watch
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns
Why is a matchup between a 3-1 team and a winless one something worth watching? Well, this game should mark the return of Brady to the playing field.
The Patriots managed to go 3-1 without Brady, but they've played their last two games with rookie third-stringer Brissett under center. Even worse, Brissett played the game against Buffalo with an injured thumb, and it clearly impacted the New England offense.
The Browns have also played their last two games with a rookie third-string quarterback. Unfortunately, the results haven't been as positive. USC product Cody Kessler has certainly played at a respectable level—he has completed 67.1 percent of his passes for 467 yards with one touchdown and one interception in his two starts—but quarterback play hasn't been the problem.
Cleveland's biggest problem is a defense that is rated just 23rd overall by Pro Football Focus through Sunday of Week 4. Cleveland is surrendering an average of 28.8 points per game.
The Browns are still a plucky team that has had a shot to win each of the last three games. Missed field goals (three of them) cost Cleveland in Week 3, and a pair of fumbles cost them against the Washington Redskins on Sunday.
Can the Patriots really go into Cleveland and win by more than 10 points?
Yes. Yes, they can.
You can bet that head coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots are tired of limping through contests with subpar quarterback play. Brady is back, and New England is likely to unleash its offensive fury right out of the gate.
Sorry, Cleveland.
Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos
We're pretty sure the Patriots can win by 10 on the road. We're not so sure the Denver Broncos can win by a touchdown at home this week. Denver lost quarterback Trevor Siemian, who had been playing well, on Sunday.
The good news is that Siemian's injury is to his non-throwing shoulder, as Mike Klis of 9News Denver made clear:
The injury to Siemian means the Broncos may have to turn to rookie first-round pick Paxton Lynch, as the team did against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. Lynch stepped in to complete 14 of 24 pass attempts for 170 yards and a touchdown. As long as he can play at a similar level, Denver should be fine offensively.
Defensively, the Broncos are in good shape, too. The Broncos are allowing just 16 points per game and are rated fourth in overall defense by Pro Football Focus so far.
The real challenge for Denver here is the challenger. The Atlanta Falcons have a strong rushing attack, a healthy Julio Jones and seem to have figured out how to make the offensive onslaught look like an art form.
The Atlanta offense is rated first overall by Pro Football Focus and just shredded a respected Carolina Panthers defense for 571 yards and 48 points. Jones produced 12 catches and 300 yards himself.
"It was hard," Panthers coach Ron Rivera said of Jones, per Associated Press sportswriter George Henry. "We thought we had a good plan coming in. We tried to cover him. We tried to do some different things, and apparently it didn't pan out."
The Atlanta offense and the Denver defense should create one tasty pairing in Week 5, and this feels like a game that really could go either way.
The Broncos could definitely improve to 5-0 next week, but it seems far less likely that they'll pull away from Atlanta long enough to win by a touchdown. We expect this to end up a close one.
Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys
The Cincinnati Bengals appeared to get back on track on Thursday night against the Miami Dolphins. After losing two straight games to AFC contenders, the Bengals manhandled the hapless Dolphins en route to a 22-7 victory.
Still, Cincinnati's inability to convert in the red zone is alarming—Cincinnati settled for five field goals—and it could come into play when the Bengals take on the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5. If so, there's a chance Dallas can pull out the home victory.
The Cowboys are playing well right now despite having a rookie running back and a rookie quarterback basically carrying the team. At 3-1, Dallas has to be respected as a potential contender.
Unfortunately, Dallas probably isn't a legitimate title contender. The defense—rated 21st overall by Pro Football Focus—is still a liability. The Cowboys barely outlasted the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday and could have major trouble handling A.J. Green and the rest of the Bengals playmakers.
Cincinnati is a far better team than San Francisco. Just consider that the team's two losses have come against Denver and Pittsburgh. After watching Pittsburgh thrash the Chiefs 43-14 on Sunday night, Cincinnati's eight-point loss in Pittsburgh almost seems impressive.
Plus, Cincinnati will be coming off 10 days of rest and game-planning. That's a lot of time to figure out a way to slow Cowboys back Ezekiel Elliott and to figure out how to do more damage in the red zone.
Cincinnati should be able to take this one straight up.
.jpg?w=600 "Full Eagles-Cowboys Trade 🤝")
.jpg?w=600 "Fans React to Simpson Pick 😱")
.jpg?w=600 "Brady Reacts to Mendoza Pick")
