Week 4 NFL Picks: Odds, Prop Bets and Predictions for Sunday's Schedule
We've reached the fourth Sunday of the 2016 season, which means another day full of surprises, action and perhaps a little gaming are upon us.
If you're the wagering type, you've probably had your fair share of roller coaster rides so far this season. There have been several surprises, along with enough injuries and wacky calls to muddle up even the clearest of pictures.
Sunday looks set to bring more of the same, as there are a number of intriguing matchups, beginning with the Indianapolis Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars in London (at 9:30 a.m. ET, no less). We're going to examine some of the more interesting wagering options and prop bets Vegas has to offer in Week 4.
First, though, let's take a look at the latest odds, relayed by Odds Shark.
| Indianapolis Colts | Jacksonville Jaguars* | IND -2.5 | 27-24 IND |
| Seattle Seahawks | New York Jets | SEA -1.5 | 21-18 NYJ |
| Detroit Lions | Chicago Bears | DET -3 | 23-20 DET |
| Cleveland Browns | Washington Redskins | WAS -7.5 | 28-23 WAS |
| Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans | HOU -4.5 | 22-16 HOU |
| Buffalo Bills | New England Patriots | NE -7.5 | 29-22 NE |
| Carolina Panthers | Atlanta Falcon | CAR -3 | 31-28 CAR |
| Oakland Raiders | Baltimore Ravens | BAL -3.5 | 30-23 BAL |
| Denver Broncos | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | DEN -3 | 24-17 DEN |
| New Orleans Saints | San Diego Chargers | SD -4 | 29-24 SD |
| Dallas Cowboys | San Francisco 49ers | DAL -2 | 24-22 DAL |
| Los Angeles Rams | Arizona Cardinals | ARI -8 | 27-18 ARI |
| Kansas City Chiefs | Pittsburgh Steelers | PIT -4.5 | 23-18 PIT |
| New York Giants | Minnesota Vikings | MIN -4.5 | 24-19 MIN |
Safest Bets
Denver Broncos (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Denver Broncos travel to Florida in Week 4 to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Though the Broncos are undefeated and playing extremely well, it's impossible to count the Buccaneers out because of the talent the team has on offense.
Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston has the offense rolling, in terms of yardage anyway. Tampa is ranked sixth in passing yardage (297 yards per game) and ninth in total yardage (383 yards per game).
The Buccaneers put up 32 points against a stout Los Angeles Rams defense in Week 3. Producing points against Denver shouldn't be a major problem, even if the Broncos defense is a cut above that the Rams can boast.
The reason to go with Denver here, though, is its offense. Second-year quarterback Trevor Siemian has settled into the starting role nicely, and as a result, the Broncos offense is humming along.
While Denver is only ranked 20th in total yardage (354 yards per game), the team is efficient when it comes to scoring. The Broncos are averaging 28 points per game, the fourth-best total in the NFL.
The challenge in Week 4 is a Buccaneers defense that Pro Football Focus rates just 26th overall. That defense surrendered 37 points to a Rams offense that had previously been woefully inept in 2016. It doesn't seem likely to offer significant resistance against Siemian and Co.
Siemian, it would seem, presents a much bigger challenge than Rams quarterback Case Keenum.
"He is more athletic than people give him credit for,'' Buccaneers defensive tackle Gerald McCoy said of Siemian, per Stephen Ruiz of the Orlando Sentinel. "He can move around in the pocket, and if he wasn't as athletic as he was, he probably would have gotten sacked more."
The Broncos offense went to Ohio in Week 3 and gashed the Cincinnati Bengals defense for 355 yards of offense and 29 points. Denver's championship-caliber defense also did its part, and the two combined for a 12-point victory.
If the Broncos can beat Cincinnati by 12, they should be able to best the Buccaneers by more than a field goal.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 49
Sunday's action kicks off with the Colts and the Jaguars doing battle across the Atlantic. These two AFC South rivals both feature strong-armed quarterbacks, offensive playmakers and questionable defenses.
Offensive stars such as T.Y. Hilton, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Frank Gore and Julius Thomas bring the excitement to this contest. Though the Jaguars took some steps to improve their defense during the offseason, this isn't likely to be a defensive struggle.
Pro Football Focus rates the Jaguars 18th in overall defense. The Colts are rated even worse at 30th.
This game could quickly turn into a shootout between Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles and Colts signal-caller Andrew Luck. The two have already combined for 1,756 yards and 11 touchdowns this season.
Luck, though, has been a little more careful with the football. He has tossed only two interceptions compared to six by Bortles.
The awful Indianapolis run defense—rated 29th in the NFL by Pro Football Focus—could help shift the offensive balance.
An above-average outing by the Jaguars rushing attack and an average day by Bortles should allow this game to reach the over. The Colts have allowed at least 22 points in each contest this season, and the combined point total has been below 49 only once.
In Week 3, the Colts and San Diego Chargers combined to score 48 points.
Prop Bet: Carlos Hyde OVER 66.5 Yards Rushing
One of the more interesting prop bets available in Vegas is an over/under of 66.5 yards rushing for San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde.
The 49ers host the Dallas Cowboys, who are coming off their most dominant performance of the year: a 31-17 drubbing of the Chicago Bears. The over/under on Hyde's rushing total is intriguing because if the Cowboys manage to get a big early lead—as the team did against the Bears—the 49ers may be forced to abandon the run.
It's worth examining a couple of trends that seem to be emerging this season. The first is the Cowboys defense has been respectable but certainly not terrific. Against the run, the Cowboys are ranked 12 with an average of 91 yards rushing allowed per game.
The second thing to note is the 49ers appear determined to lean on the ground game this season—specifically on Hyde.
Even though San Francisco has fallen behind in each of its past two outings, the team is still averaging 116.7 yards per game on the ground, 11th in the NFL. Hyde has reached 21 carries in two of the 49ers' three games and is averaging 75 yards per contest.
Hyde even managed to surpass the coveted 100-yard mark against the vaunted Seattle Seahawks defense in Week 3.
What could help keep this game close is the fact star Cowboys receiver Dez Bryant is dealing with a fracture in his knee.
According to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, Bryant will be with Dallas on gameday but there's certainly no guarantee that he will suit up:
Even if Bryant is active, he'll probably be limited. This means the 49ers defense should have an easier time slowing rookie quarterback Dak Prescott and rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott, at least in theory.
As long as the score remains at least relatively close for much of the contest, Hyde should continue to get fed the football. He should reach 67 yards on the ground.
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