NFL Picks Week 4: Expert Predictions, Odds Guide and Over-Under Lines
Nobody can be certain of anything from week to week in the NFL, except that nothing can hurt the New England Patriots and the Cleveland Browns are destined to break their fans' hearts.
Few could have foreseen the Buffalo Bills putting a stomping on the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3, while presumably no one had the guts to predict the Philadelphia Eagles beating the Pittsburgh Steelers by more than 30 points, with a rookie quarterback at the helm to boot.
There's plenty of variance and unpredictability thanks to the NFL's commitment to parity, but that doesn't stop people from trying to predict what's going to happen each week.
Here's a look at what some of the experts from around the web are thinking about the week ahead, along with the spread and over-under lines for each contest.
| Thursday, Sept. 29 | 8:25 p.m. | Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) | 44.5 | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals 73% |
| Sunday, Oct. 2 | 9:30 a.m. | Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (in London) | 48.5 | Colts | Colts | Jaguars | Colts | Colts 66% |
| Sunday, Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. | Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-4.5) | N/A | Patriots | Patriots | Patriots | Patriots | Patriots 76% |
| Sunday, Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. | Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-4.5) | 40.5 | Texans | Texans | Texans | Texans | Texans 82% |
| Sunday, Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. | Detroit Lions (-3) at Chicago Bears | 47 | Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions 57% |
| Sunday, Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. | Carolina Panthers (-3) at Atlanta Falcons | 50 | Panthers | Falcons | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers 54% |
| Sunday, Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. | Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at New York Jets | 40 | Jets | Jets | Seahawks | Jets | Seahawks 55% |
| Sunday, Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. | Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) | 46 | Ravens | Ravens | Raiders | Ravens | Ravens 67% |
| Sunday, Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. | Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins (-7.5) | 46 | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins 73% |
| Sunday, Oct. 2 | 4:05 p.m. | Denver Broncos (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 44 | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos 76% |
| Sunday, Oct. 2 | 4:25 p.m. | St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) | 43 | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals 70% |
| Sunday, Oct. 2 | 4:25 p.m. | Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers | 45.5 | Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | 49ers | 49ers 55% |
| Sunday, Oct. 2 | 4:25 p.m. | New Orleans Saints at San Diego Chargers (-4) | 53.5 | Chargers | Chargers | Chargers | Chargers | Chargers 63% |
| Sunday, Oct. 2 | 8:30 p.m. | Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5) | 47.5 | Chiefs | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers 55% |
| Monday, Oct. 3 | 8:30 p.m. | New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-5) | 43 | Giants | Vikings | Giants | Vikings | Vikings 78% |
Note: Picks are all straight up and courtesy of Bleacher Report, CBSSports.com, SB Nation, ESPN.com and FiveThirtyEight. Odds are from Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday at 9 a.m. ET.
Chargers-Saints Should See Plenty of Points
Three games, three season-ending injuries for San Diego Chargers starters. In Week 1, it was wide receiver Keenan Allen. In Week 2, it was running back Danny Woodhead, and Week 3 saw the Chargers lose a close one to the Indianapolis Colts as well as starting inside linebacker Manti Te'o for the season due to a torn Achilles tendon.
Despite all this suffering, the experts and the odds still like the Chargers at home against the New Orleans Saints. This is because the Saints have a snakebitten secondary that even the hamstrung Chargers should be able to exploit. Philip Rivers has proved himself adept at adjusting to the personnel around him, relying on Travis Benjamin to stretch defenses and Tyrell Williams to keep the chains moving.
Melvin Gordon didn't have a great time running the ball against the Colts (16 carries, 35 yards), but he scored a touchdown for the third week in a row and gives the Chargers the balance they lacked throughout last season.
DraftKings' Adam Levitan also noted Gordon is getting more involved in the passing game with Woodhead out:
New Orleans still has Drew Brees and a litany of dynamic wide receivers for him to throw to, and as good as Chargers cornerback Jason Verrett is, he can still guard only one player at a time. Brees already has 1,062 passing yards and eight touchdowns against one pick this year, plus he has the motivation of returning to San Diego, where he began his prolific passing career.
“I mean, listen, I’ve been waiting for the moment to go back there,” Brees acknowledged, per ESPN.com's Mike Triplett.
This game has the highest over-under of Week 4, and it might be wise to take the over.
The Atlanta Falcons beat the Saints 45-32 on Monday night. This game probably won't be quite as explosive due to the injury issues on both sides, but two excellent quarterbacks battling it out in sunny Southern California should make for a fun, high-scoring affair.
Patriots' Quarterback Situation Still A Mystery
Tom Brady is suspended. Backups Jimmy Garoppolo and and Jacoby Brissett are dealing with shoulder and thumb injuries, respectively, and wide receiver Julian Edelman, the team's emergency quarterback, is too smart to reveal anything to a reporter-impersonating Rex Ryan.
So good luck figuring this one out, unless you're convinced that nothing can hurt the 3-0 Patriots and Bill Belichick will come up with some Zen-master game plan that thwarts a Bills defense that looked excellent against the Cardinals in Week 3.
The Bills put all kinds of pressure on Carson Palmer in a 33-18 win, sacking the veteran quarterback five times and forcing him into four interceptions. Knowing that he will face a QB ailing in some way on Sunday, or perhaps even Edelman, you can bet Ryan is going to unleash his pass rush and hound the quarterback all game long.
The Patriots can counter with LeGarrette Blount, who ran for 105 yards and two touchdowns in a win over the Houston Texans in Week 3. The AFC Offensive Player of the Month for September, Blount has emerged as a clear go-to guy in what has been a murky Patriots backfield situation.
The Bills are allowing just 3.4 yards per carry this season, per ESPN.com, so Blount might have to grind it out on most plays to keep the Patriots offense going.
Whichever Pats quarterback gets the call Sunday will hopefully see more of tight end Rob Gronkowski, who is working his way back from a hamstring injury and saw limited action against the Texans.
"I can't wait until I'm going crazy out there again," he said Wednesday, per ESPN.com's Mike Reiss.
The Bills offense has a difficult task against the Patriots defense, which is allowing just 15 points per game this season and is coming off a 27-0 shutout of the Texans. Tyrod Taylor has been inconsistent at best this year and threw for only 119 yards and one interception against the Cardinals.
However, he's made up for his struggles in the passing game with his legs, rushing for 76 yards and a score in Week 3. Running back LeSean McCoy also found plenty of room to run against Arizona, tallying 110 yards and two scores, so the Pats will have to find a way to clamp down on the ground game.
Since it's Ryan coaching against the Patriots, it's hard to see the Bills picking up an upset in this rivalry matchup. However, if it becomes apparent that Garoppolo or Brissett can't make plays downfield or is still injured, Buffalo should edge out a narrow victory, drawing blood from the Patriots before Brady returns to save the day in Week 5 and get the dynastic franchise back on track.
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