2017 NFL Draft: Matt Miller's Latest Stock Watch
Evaluating players for the NFL when they're still in college is a lot like buying a futures stock. Every player is an individual commodity, and right now is when the value of each can fluctuate. And just like stocks, there is risk with every decision, but using the information available throughout the season, you can make informed decisions on the performance and potential of each. And that's what drives up a player's stock or causes it to crash.
It's becoming trendy in draft circles to say that "draft stock" doesn't exist. It does. How else would you explain the rise of Carson Wentz last fall? How else do you describe the fall of La'el Collins in the 2015 draft or Laremy Tunsil last year? The circumstances that led to their draft-day tumbles is a falling stock—deserved or not.
Draft stock exists, and with the season nearing the quarter mark, here's a look at who is moving up my board and who is falling down it.
Stock Up: Wide Receiver Zay Jones, East Carolina
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Playing in a fast-and-furious offensive scheme, senior wide out Zay Jones is amassing the kind of production NFL scouts can't ignore. Even if you play at East Carolina.
In four games, Jones has 49 catches for 556 yards. If there is a negative, it's that the 6'1", 197-pound Jones has only scored one touchdown so far. But as a route-runner and receiver, he's polished and electric. With enough speed—estimating his 40-yard-dash time in the high 4.4 range—Jones can make defenders pay if they give him a cushion in off coverage.
Jones is one of the nation's best receivers—you just don't hear enough about him because of the school he plays for.
Current Projection: Round 2
Stock Down: Tackle Conor McDermott, UCLA
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It all started in Week 1, when Conor McDermott had to line up across from Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett. From there, it's gone downhill.
In that game, Pro Football Focus credited McDermott with surrendering two sacks, three quarterback hits and six hurries.
That started things off at a low point, but McDermott has struggled to rebound since. Part of the issue is that at 6'8" and 310 pounds (per scouts who weighed him this summer), McDermott lacks the snappiness to get to the edge to protect against speed-rushers. He overcompensates for this lack of flexibility and quickness with over-stepping, which in turn leaves him off balance and off-centered to protect against a bull rush.
McDermott entered the season with buzz and hype as a potential Round 1 tackle, but four weeks into the season, he looks like a Day 3 prospect.
Current Projection: Round 4-5
Stock Up: Edge-Rusher Ryan Anderson, Alabama
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In talking to scouts this summer, the feeling on Ryan Anderson was that he could potentially be one of the top 75-100 players in this draft but that he was well behind other Alabama defenders Reuben Foster, Jonathan Allen, Tim Williams, Eddie Jackson and Marlon Humphrey.
That's changed.
Anderson had a coming-out party in Week 1 of the season against USC, posting one sack and a combination of two quarterback hits and two hurries, per our charting. Since then, Anderson has followed it up with a sack in every game, running his total to four on the year, according to Pro Football Focus.
As an edge-rusher, Anderson is slightly undersized at 6'2" and almost 260 pounds, but his quick first step and flexibility have already started turning heads.
Current Projection: Round 2
Stock Down: Tackle Roderick Johnson, FSU
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It's not a good year to need an offensive tackle. The second player at the position showing up in a stock-down format echoes that point.
Florida State's Roderick Johnson had some Round 1 hype on my early big boards last spring and over the summer—but that was largely out of the need for offensive tackles in the first 32 picks. But when it comes down to looking at the film and seeing which players should be first-rounders, Roderick Johnson doesn't stack up.
In Week 1, he struggled against Ole Miss while showing that he doesn't have the foot speed necessary to hang at left tackle in the NFL. A move to right tackle or even guard would be best for his career long term.
Current Projection: Round 3
Stock Up: Cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, Colorado
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The Colorado Buffaloes are enjoying a revival of sorts in the 2016 season, and one big part of that is cornerback Chidobe Awuzie. At 6'0" and close to 200 pounds, Awuzie has NFL size, speed and instincts. He's also aggressive enough to stack up against the run and make plays at the line of scrimmage in both press coverage and against the run.
Awuzie hasn't generated the hype of other first-round cornerbacks such as Marlon Humphrey or Jalen Tabor, but his play is approaching that level, and he's doing it without the elite talent around him on the Buffs defense.
To reach top-tier status, Awuzie needs to generate more turnovers—he has three picks in his career so far—but he has the tools to be a Desmond Trufant-style cornerback.
Current Projection: Round 2
Stock Down: Safety Max Redfield, Notre Dame
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Max Redfield came into the season as the top-ranked senior defensive back when I started viewing prospects, but he never played a down at Notre Dame after being dismissed following an arrest on charges of marijuana possession. His stock has taken a dive, making the offseason (Senior Bowl, NFL Scouting Combine, pro day) very important.
Redfield has time still to rejuvenate his draft stock, but he's starting at rock bottom. This is similar to the Josh Shaw situation from last year—minus the fabricated story. Shaw had top-50 buzz before being dismissed from USC and eventually winding up as a fourth-round pick. The major difference is that USC reinstated Shaw and he played the final three games of the year, which at least gave him some film for scouts to view.
Current Projection: Round 6
Stock Up: Wide Receiver Fred Ross, Miss. State
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At 6'2" and 205 pounds, Fred Ross isn't the biggest wide receiver prospect in the nation. And with an estimated 40-yard-dash time in the low 4.5s based on our calculations, he's not the fastest either. But Ross is an exceptional route-runner with a pro-level understanding of spacing and how to attack the ball in the air. Some of the most successful NFL wide receivers are freak athletes and others are technicians. Ross qualifies as the latter.
The biggest improvement on Ross' tape this year is an improved ability to find the end zone. He's already scored four touchdowns in four games (on 26 catches), which puts him one behind the five he scored last season on 88 catches.
Just a junior, there is no guarantee Ross will enter the 2017 NFL draft, but he's quietly moving up my board and is starting to nip at the heels of the receivers above him.
Current Projection: Round 2
Stock Down: Quarterback Seth Russell, Baylor
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NFL scouts have been looking for a hero among the senior quarterbacks for months now, but one has yet to emerge during my viewings of college game tape. Baylor's Seth Russell has done the opposite—instead of emerging, he's continued to lose ground while some of his peers (Chad Kelly and Davis Webb) have moved up the board with impressive performances.
Russell was always going to be hurt by the Baylor scheme that has placed Robert Griffin III and Bryce Petty into the NFL without basic skills to read defenses. Adding insult to injury is that Russell is not the athlete RGIII or Petty were in college.
Taking the temperature of the quarterback landscape, Russell is among those moving down the more looks I take.
Current Projection: Round 7
Stock Up: Edge-Rusher Myles Garrett, Texas A&M
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How can Myles Garrett possibly be a stock-up player?
Most college football fans know this name, but looking back two months ago, Garrett was considered a high-potential player who needed to show up against top pass-blockers and a guy who needed to do a lot more against the run. Four games in, Garrett has done just that.
Up to 275 pounds, according to scouts I've spoken with, Garrett is playing with more power as a pass-rusher and as a run defender while not sacrificing any of the burst or flexibility that made him a standout edge player in the past. Garrett has Jadeveon Clowney's freakish athleticism and Khalil Mack's "I'm taking over this game" mentality.
Current Projection: First Overall
Stock Down: Quarterback Deshaun Watson, Clemson
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After watching Deshaun Watson have success against a loaded Alabama defense in the 2016 national title game, many were ready to crown him as the next big thing at quarterback. Immediately, the Marcus Mariota comparisons began. Throughout the summer, Watson was the name in college football.
Then the season began, and Watson started slowly while continuing to show some of the weaknesses that should have slowed the hype machine.
Watson is a tremendous athlete and a very natural thrower, but his accuracy is still spotty and he's still an undersized player for the type of runner he is. At 6'3" and 215 pounds—which seems like a generous listing—Watson must bulk up before he's ready to take on NFL defenses. Of course, the same was said of first-rounders Mariota, Teddy Bridgewater and Jared Goff.
This isn't to say Watson won't be a first-round pick, but based on where the expectations were, his stock has slipped.
Current Projection: Top 15 Overall
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