NFL Week 4 Picks: Upcoming Odds and Predictions for Full Schedule

The third week of the 2016 NFL season has nearly reached its conclusion. Things will wrap up on Monday with a matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons. As we prepare to turn the page on Week 3—and the month of September—we're beginning to learn a little bit more about the state of the NFL.

We learned this past week that New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick should never be underestimated. Even with third-string rookie Jacoby Brissett under center, the Patriots managed to dominate a Houston Texans team that went to the playoffs in 2015 and looked to be an early favorite in the AFC South.

We also learned that the Philadelphia Eagles and rookie quarterback Carson Wentz might just be for real. Wentz played another strong game, and the Eagles defense stifled the explosive Pittsburgh Steelers offense en route to a blowout victory.

In case you were worried about the chances of the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos with Trevor Siemian under center, we learned that you shouldn't be. The Broncos secured their third consecutive quality win of the season by beating the Bengals 29-17 in Cincinnati.

Now, we're going to try taking what we've learned so far this season and applying it to Week 4's slate of games. We'll be examining each game, providing our predictions and taking a close look at some key matchups.

Early odds are courtesy of Odds Shark.

Date	Away	Home	National TV	Early Line	Prediction
Thu 9/29	Miami	Cincinnati	NFL Network	CIN -7	Cincinnati 31-22
Sun 10/2	Indianapolis	Jacksonville	CBS	JAX -2.5	Indianapolis 27-23
Sun 10/2	Tennessee	Houston	CBS	HOU -4.5	Houston 22-16
Sun 10/2	Cleveland	Washington	CBS	WAS -6.5	Washington 28-26
Sun 10/2	Seattle	NY Jets	Fox	SEA -3.5	NY Jets 26-24
Sun 10/2	Buffalo	New England	CBS	NE -4	Patriots 24-17
Sun 10/2	Carolina	Atlanta	Fox	CAR -3	Panthers 31-27
Sun 10/2	Oakland	Baltimore	CBS	BAL -3.5	Oakland 34-31
Sun 10/2	Detroit	Chicago	Fox	DET -2	Detroit 27-19
Sun 10/2	Denver	Tampa Bay	CBS	DEN -3.5	Denver 29-23
Sun 10/2	Los Angeles	Arizona	Fox	ARI -8.5	Arizona 22-16
Sun 10/2	New Orleans	San Diego	Fox	SD -4	New Orleans 33-30
Sun 10/2	Dallas	San Francisco	Fox	Even	Dallas 23-16
Sun 10/2	Kansas City	Pittsburgh	NBC	PIT -4	Pittsburgh 29-24
Mon 10/3	NY Giants	Minnesota	ESPN	MIN -3.5	Minnesota 28-23

Matchups to Watch

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati has faced a tough start to its 2016 season, and the team hasn't exactly responded well. The Bengals dropped their Week 2 game against the rival Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Denver Broncos beat them down 29-17 on Sunday.

Now, the Broncos are obviously a good football team. They're the defending Super Bowl champions, and they remain undefeated on the year. Still, this was Cincinnati's home opener and a prime opportunity to rattle Siemian in just his third pro start.

Instead, Siemian torched the Bengals defense to the tune of 312 yards and four touchdowns.

If the Bengals are going to make it back to the postseason, they need to turn things around quickly. This doesn't feel like the same dominant team of early 2015—before quarterback Andy Dalton suffered a broken thumb—and a touchdown spread for the Bengals feels a bit large.

However, we believe Cincinnati can beat the Miami Dolphins by more than a touchdown in the Week 4 opener on Thursday night. The team will be motivated to cleanse the sour taste of the Denver game from its collective mouth, and it's not as if the Dolphins are playing great football right now.

Miami actually should have lost to the woeful Cleveland Browns this past week. The Dolphins got the win in overtime, but the Browns would have won in regulation if not for three missed field goals from kicker Cody Parkey.

Pro Football Focus rates Miami just 25th in overall defense through Sunday of Week 3. This game should provide the Bengals with a chance to get back on track, and we believe the team will come out firing.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

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The Patriots are favored by only four points in this game, and there are plenty of reasons to believe the Buffalo Bills can pull off the upset. The fact that Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is still suspended and both Jimmy Garoppolo and Brissett are injured is chief among them.

Garoppolo played extremely well as Brady's replacement in the first couple of weeks but was lost to a shoulder injury in Week 2. Brissett did enough to win against the Texans this past Thursday but also suffered a torn thumb ligament. According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, however, the injury isn't expected to be serious:

Still, if the Patriots cannot get Garoppolo or Brissett healthy by next Sunday, there's a legitimate chance wide receiver Julian Edelman could be running the offense.

The Bills, meanwhile, are coming off a 33-18 drubbing of the Arizona Cardinals. Though the Buffalo offense—sans former offensive coordinator Greg Roman—showed some issues on Sunday, the ground attack was strong.

Buffalo racked up 208 net rushing yards against the Cardinals.

The problem we have with going against the Patriots is that Belichick almost always figures out how to take away what an opponent does best. He utilized a run-oriented offense to stonewall the Houston pass rush in Week 3, and he'll probably focus on taking away Buffalo's ground game in Week 4.

The fact that the Patriots will have 10 days to prepare for Buffalo only adds to their advantage.

Going into the game with Edelman would obviously force the Patriots to get creative on offense. However, ESPN.com's Adam Schefter reports that the Patriots are hopeful to have either Garoppolo or Brissett back for the contest:

"

The Patriots want to see how Jimmy Garoppolo is faring with his sprained AC joint, but they felt he "definitely is making progress" over the weekend. They also want to see how Jacoby Brissett responds to his thumb injury, but because he injured it in the third quarter and was able to play the rest of the game, the Patriots think there's a realistic chance Brissett will be available next Sunday as well.

"

It's just too hard to bet against the Patriots at home and on a long week, even if injuries at quarterback fog the picture leading into the game.

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers

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The Sunday night contest should be a good one, as the Steelers host the Kansas City Chiefs. Both teams were playoff teams in 2015, and both currently sit at 2-1.

This should be a hard-fought contest, and it also projects as one that is tough to pick—especially after what we witnessed in Week 3.

The Steelers looked like one of the top teams in football through Week 2, but they were absolutely crushed by the Eagles on Sunday. Rookie quarterback Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense gashed the Pittsburgh defense for 34 points. The Eagles defense held the usually explosive Steelers offense to just three points.

Overall, it was a terrible day for the Steelers.

"Well," Steelers receiver Antonio Brown said, per Matt Lombardo of NJ Advance Media, "we got our butt kicked. We couldn't put points up. Couldn't get any stops. We have to find a way to get back."

The Steelers will have a chance to get back on track at home on Sunday night. However, they'll get that chance against a Chiefs team that just embarrassed the New York Jets as badly as the Eagles embarrassed the Steelers.

Kansas City forced eight turnovers during their 24-3 rout of the Jets.

We're willing to bet, though, that the Chiefs won't be able to force eight turnovers for a second consecutive week. We also don't believe that the Steelers offense will be stymied for a second straight game—especially with running back Le'Veon Bell returning to the fold.

We're going with the Steelers and their home-field advantage here, even when spotting the Chiefs four points.