NFL Predictions Week 3: Chris Simms' Weekly Projections

Making an observation about Seattle’s defensive style? 

Prepare your Twitter timeline. The 12s came at me in full force last week after I said NFL teams had figured out that Seattle scheme.

Then Week 2 happened. And the teams that deploy Seattle's scheme—Jaguars, Raiders and Falcons to start—were all carved up defensively. It turns out it's tough to win with that scheme if your team doesn't employ Michael Bennett, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor and all those stars.

The tape doesn’t lie; Bleacher Report pays me to uncover the facts. Only after hours of film-watching do I feel comfortable predicting an upcoming week of games, factoring everything from roster composition to player development to scheme fit and more.

So pay attention to these players and games in Week 3. And if you ever attack the Seahawks, don’t pay attention to social media for a while.

Upset Alert!

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Prediction: 49ers over Seahawks

Sorry, Seahawks fans.

I’m not trying to pile on. But even you have to admit your offense—Russell Wilson’s ankle, the starting O-line, the scheme, etc.—hasn’t inspired much faith.

Granted, neither has Blaine Gabbert. But he doesn’t have to be outstanding in an offense Chip Kelly has designed to get receivers wide-open (see: Vance McDonald’s touchdown catch in Week 2). Kelly breaks a few pass plays in this one while remaining a little more balanced with Carlos Hyde.

Seattle always starts off slowly. I can see the Seahawks stumbling out of the blocks for at least one more week.

Biggest Cakewalk

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Prediction: Steelers over Eagles

This isn’t the Browns. Or the Bears.

This is Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. Philadelphia hasn’t seen a passing game like this Steelers’—and by game’s end, the Eagles will wish they hadn’t.

Why? Let’s start where all games are won. The strength of this Philly roster is on its defensive line. But Pittsburgh has Maurkice Pouncey, David DeCastro and Alejandro Villanueva, and they’re not afraid to block the Eagles man-to-man.

Then there’s Brown. No Eagles defensive back has the skills to plant and cut when he changes direction or the speed to stay with him vertically. A 150-plus-yard receiving day could happen.

Under/Over: Beckham Jr. and Norman Personal Fouls

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Line: 1.5

Prediction: Under

This time, an impromptu East Rutherford, New Jersey, WrestleMania isn’t on the schedule.

Giants coach Ben McAdoo will take Odell Beckham Jr. aside. Redskins coach Jay Gruden will take Josh Norman aside. And they’ll all agree to play football and not let emotions take over like they did last season.

I see both players are a little less chippy this year. Give me the under.

Matchup Nightmare of the Week

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Prediction: Tyrod Taylor vs. Cardinals D-line

Someone give Taylor a stool or something.

He struggled to look over the Jets line in Week 2. Now an equally freakish Cardinals front is in town to test his height all over again.

Calais Campbell is 6'8". Frostee Rucker is 6'3". We might see Robert Nkemdiche (6'5") and Josh Mauro (6'6") crack the rotation. Expect more battled balls than a Diamondbacks game.

Also: Chandler Jones is coming off the edge. He knows a thing or two about this Bills offense after playing it twice last year as a Patriot.

Under/Over: Jacoby Brissett Passing Attempts

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Line: 22

Prediction: Over

Jimmy Garoppolo won’t test his arm on Thursday Night Football.

So his backup, Jacoby Brissett, will get to test his arm instead. And Bill Belichick is smart enough to know this Texans defense isn’t expecting an aerial assault.

That’s exactly what Belichick will give them. Brissett is unproved, but he’ll be asked to hit quick, one-read throws to keep Houston honest.

The Patriots trust their backups. After all, Garoppolo attempted 27 passes in a half last week. Expect a little less but still enough in Week 3.

Sleeper QB

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Prediction: Dak Prescott

A rookie quarterback chewing up the Bears?

It sounds awfully familiar. Dak Prescott can just pick up where Carson Wentz left off and gouge this undermanned group.

Down Eddie Goldman and Danny Trevathan, head coach John Fox will sell out to stop the run in this game. That’s when the 'Boys open up their playbook and give Prescott play-action and bootleg calls.

It’s not like Chicago has a player who can disrupt his improved timing with Dez Bryant, either. That’s always a bad sign for a defense.

More Passing Yards: Andrew Luck or Philip Rivers?

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Prediction: Andrew Luck

Philip Rivers doesn’t have to do everything in this offense. He has Melvin Gordon right behind him.

Who does Andrew Luck have? Old man Frank Gore?

There’s no balance. Luck is the Colts' only offense, so unless this somehow turns into a shootout (with San Diego’s defense, you never know), Luck attempts no fewer than 45 throws and gets about 350 passing yards.

More Rushing Yards: Whittaker and Artis-Payne or McKinnon and Asiata?

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Fozzy Whittaker

Prediction: Fozzy Whittaker and Cameron Artis-Payne

What a tough call between two running back stables that are missing their lead horses.

Carolina’s duo has the edge, though. In that offense, Cam Newton is the lead back—his read-option action or quarterback keepers will freeze up Minnesota’s linebackers for just a second. Then Whittaker or Artis-Payne can sneak through…maybe.

These run defenses are no joke. Can I take a push?

Sleeper RB

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Prediction: Derrick Henry

I could run through the gaps left behind by Oakland’s defense and pick up four yards.

Imagine what a former Heisman winner can do. Write it down: Derrick Henry announces his official NFL arrival with a 100-yard day and a couple of end-zone trips.

What's stopping him? Not the D-line I mentioned or the linebackers Raiders coach Jack Del Rio pulled out of last week’s game. Only DeMarco Murray's presence will limit his carries, but there should be enough touches to go around in Week 3.

I say Tennessee really pounds the rock this week. Henry should be a big part of the game plan.

Sleeper WR

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Prediction: Tyrell Williams

Fantasy football geeks like my Bleacher Report buddy Matt Camp were on top of Tyrell Williams.

After a week of tape, I can see why. San Diego has stuck the Western Oregon product in Keenan Allen’s old spot and told him “go produce.” And he’s doing it.

Williams is a little bit more than a big-bodied target for Philip Rivers. Take a peek at his touchdown grab versus Jacksonville. The pass traveled five yards before Williams turned on the jets and went the other 39.

This week? He’s playing the Colts secondary that’s down to, like, its fourth- and fifth-stringers. As Camp would say, start him.

More Yards Surrendered: Raiders or Titans?

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Prediction: Raiders

Oakland can bring back an in-his-prime Deion Sanders if it wants to.

It won’t make a difference. I can’t stress enough how discombobulated this Raiders defense looks on film, from scheme to players to effort.

Why? Their coaching doesn’t add up. Jack Del Rio, a former linebacker, brought in Seattle’s scheme. You know how I feel about that. But defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. doesn’t have the pieces or the pressure to run it.

On the other end, Tennessee’s passing defense is…bad. Derek Carr will throw a bunch. But I’ll take a historically terrible group, even with more talented players, over one that just stinks.

Immediate Impact Rookie

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Prediction: Kenyan Drake

Miami brought on old Arian Foster to be a checkdown option in the new passing attack.

That’s what Kenyan Drake can be. I look at him and see a better Ronnie Hillman—someone who can run out of the backfield, find a hole in zone coverage and show Ryan Tannehill his numbers.

Drake is also smart enough to run in coach Adam Gase’s zone scheme. I say he finds the end zone for the second time in as many weeks and doubles his 18 snaps from last week.

Best Game No One Is Talking About

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Prediction: Chiefs vs. Jets

This game between two AFC contenders isn't a prime-time one, and I have no idea why.

It’s Matt Forte, fresh off a three-score game, against a defense that’s just as physical as his. It’s Travis Kelce and Brandon Marshall moving the chains. Kansas City’s overachieving O-line vs. New York’s dominant D-line.

These two teams are so similarly constructed that a close contest is almost a given. But hey, give us Bears-Cowboys on Sunday Night Football or Saints-Falcons on Monday Night Football instead.