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NFL Week 3: Projecting Winners and Losers of Weekend's Biggest Matchups

Sean TomlinsonSep 23, 2016

Looking at positional matchups around the NFL can give you a microscopic taste of the reality coaches and coordinators deal with each week.

The same group of names are always terrifying.

Week 3 isn't the first time a matchup involving Washington Redskins cornerback Josh Norman has been profiled in this space. It won't be the last either. Ditto for Denver Broncos outside linebacker Von Miller. Winning battles against players of that caliber is often a primary focus late at night when NFL coaches may or may not be falling asleep at the office instead of heading home.

Those players and their matchups can be the most engaging to follow every week. It's as though each game Arizona Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson has a heavyweight title to defend. Is this the week when he's finally beaten? And will Buffalo Bills wide receiver Sammy Watkins be the man to do it? (Probably not.)

We want to see when the mighty will fall, or at least look vulnerable. When two such players come together, the ultimate game within a game follows, with plenty at stake beyond bragging rights.

Let's see who could get knocked off their throne in Week 3, starting with a matchup that ended violently last time.

Josh Norman vs. Odell Beckham Jr.

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It's the third straight week we've taken a look at an impending clash involving Washington Redskins cornerback Josh Norman.

That isn't surprising stuff because the most talented players provide us with the most intriguing matchups. After a gauntlet that's included the Pittsburgh Steelers' Antonio Brown and the Dallas Cowboys' Dez Bryant, Norman now gets to reignite his WWE-style feud with the New York Giants' Odell Beckham Jr.

But yet again we're left wondering if this matchup will actually take place, and if the Redskins will deploy their highly paid cornerback in a way that matches his salary.

In fairness, this week more than any other may not be the time to have Norman focused solely on one man. Yes, he should still spend the higher percentage of his snaps lined up across from Beckham, who has caught 12 balls through two games for 159 yards. That almost feels like a sputtering start by his astronomical standards, and that's the point here.

The Giants' passing offense isn't solely anchored to Beckham anymore. Fellow wide receiver Victor Cruz is dialing back the clock to 2012, especially with his 91 yards on four catches in Week 2. Dynamic rookie wideout Sterling Shepard has turned his offseason hype into in-season promise. He caught all eight of his targets in a win over the New Orleans Saints for 117 yards.

There's plenty for Norman and the Redskins to worry about now. But Beckham still tops that list.

Prediction

If this matchup does materialize to some degree, Norman gets the ever-so-slight edge. His physical play makes him one of the few corners who can neutralize Beckham's speed, or at least limit the damage. We saw that in 2015 in the infamous Beckham vs. Norman slugfest as the Giants' all-galaxy threat averaged a modest 12.7 yards per catch.

Andrew Whitworth vs. Von Miller

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This is the classic football battle of an immovable object against a guy who moves every object.

We're all well versed in how scary Denver Broncos linebacker Von Miller can be every week as he either speeds around the corner or crashes through whoever dares to be occupying that space. But don't let his familiar weekly dominance stop you from stepping back and appreciating just how historically great Miller has become.

Miller has already recorded four sacks through two games in 2016. At the age of 27 he has 64 sacks over 74 career games. That ranks eighth in the sack rankings of all post-merger players aged 27 or younger, according to Pro Football Reference.

Former Kansas City Chiefs legend Derrick Thomas leads the list with 77 sacks, and he had played 21 more games than Miller at the same age. We see a similar story with Buffalo Bills Hall of Famer Bruce Smith, who is second with 76.5 sacks at age 27 after playing 88 games.

So Miller is both overpowering and efficient. Sunday he'll spend a good chunk of his afternoon trying to get by Cincinnati Bengals tackle Andrew Whitworth.

The veteran was a first-team All-Pro in 2015 after allowing only four sacks and 20 pressures over 565 pass-blocking snaps, per Pro Football Focus.

Prediction

Going against Miller right now is a good way to find yourself spending long hours looking out the window and questioning your sanity, so I won't do that here. However, Whitworth presents his toughest challenge yet this season. The Bengals didn't allow a sack to Miller during their last meeting in Week 16 of 2015. It was one of six games when he was kept off that section of the postgame box score.

Sammy Watkins vs. Patrick Peterson

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It's too bad Buffalo Bills wide receiver Sammy Watkins isn't his usual abrupt-cutting self while dealing with a foot injury. If he was, I would watch an isolated camera on his matchup against Arizona Cardinals shutdown cornerback Patrick Peterson.

Cardinals safety Tyrann Mathieu told Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic that Peterson will shadow Watkins, which is a surprise to absolutely no one. Ordinarily Watkins' quickness and intricate footwork would make him one of the few receivers who challenges Peterson. He finished with 1,047 receiving yards and nine touchdowns in 2015 even while missing three games.

But those same qualities always seem to be diminished because of Watkins' fragile body. That means it's difficult to give him much hope against a cornerback who's allowed only five receptions and a passer rating in coverage of 51.7 over two games, per PFF.

Peterson's most recent triumph was over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Mike Evans. Evans did manage to wiggle free for a touchdown, but Peterson limited the 6'5" looming target to an average of 11.7 yards per catch.

Prediction

Again, if Watkins had two fully functioning feet, this matchup would make for great television, the kind that requires heavily buttered popcorn. But that likely won't be the case, so he may not get targeted often against Peterson.

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Marshal Yanda vs. Malik Jackson

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The Jacksonville Jaguars gave defensive tackle Malik Jackson many, many suitcases overflowing with money during the offseason. I'm not sure exactly how many it would take to hold $85.5 million, but it's a lot.

The Jaguars are still waiting on Jackson's first sack after he recorded five of them in 2015 for the Denver Broncos. That's no cause for concern yet because the 6'5", 300-pound hulking pain-bringer was in the backfield often in Week 2 against the San Diego Chargers, finishing with five hurries.

He's a disruptor, and Jackson will spend much of his day Sunday lined up across from a guard who's been short-circuiting disruptors throughout his five-time Pro Bowl career.

Baltimore Ravens guard Marshal Yanda was a third-round pick in 2007. He's started at least 14 games in each of the last six seasons. Going back further, Yanda has logged 122 starts while being on the field for 9,331 snaps.

Take a long look at those numbers and soak in his career longevity. Then once you're done, prepare yourself for another impressive digit: 19.

That's how many career sacks Yanda has allowed.

Prediction

Let's give Yanda the nod, as he's perhaps the most rock-solid interior blocker the NFL has to offer.

Bobby Wagner vs. Carlos Hyde

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San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde has unpleasant memories from his last meeting against the Seattle Seahawks. That came in Week 7 of 2015 when he was bent so far backward the 25-year-old looked like he was doing a Matrix imitation in the worst way possible.

He left the game early, so we don't have recent results to gauge who has the upper hand between him and Seahawks middle linebacker Bobby Wagner even though the two play for division rivals. We essentially don't have anything to go on at all in that regard because Hyde was a sparsely used rookie playing behind Frank Gore in 2014.

Instead, with Hyde we can look at what's in front of us. He's healthy again in 2016 and set to be a backfield workhorse. While the rest of his team crumbles, Hyde has been the lone power-running bright spot with a solid though less than spectacular 145 yards from scrimmage over two games.

He's reached that number at a tiny average of 3.3 yards per carry, which is partly the responsibility of an inept supporting cast. Hyde is a bulldozing presence who needs a steady diet of carries to be effective while wearing down an opponent throughout the game. That approach gets tossed out fast when there's no passing-game threat whatsoever.

Wagner's job then will be to match power with power. That's what he's done during a career with 100-plus tackles in each of his four seasons prior to 2016. He's strong, sure, but that doesn't make Wagner unique. No, what pushes him into the top tier of linebackers is the speed to plug gaps and consistently put himself in a position to use his strength.

Prediction

It's hard to see a future where Wagner gets trucked. He's the perfect counterpunch against a power runner, and the 26-year-old will have plenty of help from a defense stacking the box against woeful 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert.

Marcus Peters vs. Eric Decker

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Let's clear up an injury status off the top here: New York Jet wide receiver Eric Decker is playing this week.

All signs point to that, including a report from, um, Eric Decker. "I'm definitely playing," he said when asked about his minor shoulder issue, per ESPN.com's Rich Cimini.

But there's another Jets injury that will impact how many balls are thrown in Decker's direction. Brandon Marshall didn't practice Wednesday and Thursday. He will almost certainly be listed as questionable and a game-time decision.

That means Decker—who has piled up 163 receiving yards over two games on only 15 targets—is about to see his workload take a right-angled spike. Consequently, we'll be treated to a wide receiver-cornerback matchup of size on size.

At 6'3" and 214 pounds, Decker has always won individual battles with his height and ability to high-point contested catches. But at 6'0" and 197 pounds, Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters does the same. He dominates on the outside through sheer physicality and pairs that with the anticipation to generate turnovers by undercutting throws.

Prediction

Peters has played just 18 NFL games, and he's already intercepted 10 passes. For some fun perspective on that, we can compare Peters to the Cardinals' Patrick Peterson. Peters is 23 years old, and when Peterson was that age he had recorded 12 interceptions. That's only two more than Peters, and he needed 48 games played to get there.

So it feels pretty safe to side with Peters in his matchup with Decker.

LeSean McCoy vs. Deone Bucannon

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Deone Bucannon is, in a word, interesting.

He's one of the most interesting defenders in the NFL after the Arizona Cardinals invested a first-round pick in him (27th overall in 2014) and drafted the former Washington State star as a safety. Then, in his second year, Arizona moved Bucannon to inside linebacker, a decision that seemed questionable at first because he's undersized at the position at 6'1" and 211 pounds.

So of course in 2015 he led the team in tackles with 112. With a safety background he has the speed to close gaps quickly and still possesses the versatility to drop back and be effective in coverage.

His hard-hitting presence against the run has driven the Cardinals toward allowing only 3.7 yards per carry so far in 2016. That comes after their run defense ranked sixth in 2015.

Which is troubling for Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy, who has failed to get much of anything going on the ground through two weeks outside of a few sporadic long gains. McCoy's per-carry average of 3.8 yards mirrors what the Cardinals are giving up.

Prediction

Let's go with Bucannon here because he has the core skill set to match McCoy's outside speed.

Chris Harris and Aqib Talib vs. A.J. Green

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A select few wide receivers are totally and completely matchup-proof. Anytime you think they'll be slowed down by a top-tier cornerback, that supposedly worthy opponent is brushed off their shoulder.

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green did that to New York Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis in Week 1. He went to Revis Island and then chilled out with his beach ball and an endless supply of drinks that come with tiny umbrellas. Green ended that afternoon with 12 receptions for 180 yards and a touchdown.

The Green-Revis showdown may have been an overhyped matchup because the Jets corner is gradually declining. Revis isn't the feared outside lockdown cover man he was even just a few years ago.

Week 3 may bring the true test of Green's matchup-proof status, as the Denver Broncos have a pair of corners who can seal off a side of the field.

Both Chris Harris and Aqib Talib ranked among the top 25 in cover snaps per reception allowed, per PFF. It doesn't matter what side of the field Green is on or who he lines up against. He'll have to summon his inner Spider-Man while making his usual acrobatic catches with little space to work with.

Prediction

It does indeed feel like Green is matchup-proof. But the Broncos are one of the few teams able to trot out two cornerbacks who match his speed and size. They likely still won't shut him down, because that doesn't happen often and requires a Herculean effort. But they'll slow him enough to make the Bengals beat them in another way.

If that happens, it'll be a major victory for the Broncos.

Everson Griffen vs. Panthers Tackles

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Carolina Panthers offensive tackles Michael Oher and Mike Remmers face a lot of scrutiny because, well, that's what happens when you're adequate at best.

But they don't need to be much better than that because of quarterback Cam Newton's strength to shed tackles and mobility to avoid them. As long as Oher and Remmers can clear the bar needed to be called decent or respectable, they'll be fine most weeks.

The problem for them is that Week 3 might not be most weeks.

Minnesota Vikings defensive end Everson Griffen has recorded two straight double-digit sack seasons with 22.5 sacks combined. At 28 years old, he's maturing into one of the league's most consistent pocket-collapsing threats. He's constantly disrupting plays and finished fourth in 2015 with 71 pressures, per PFF.

The Vikings will become even more reliant on their defense now with running back Adrian Peterson likely set to miss the rest of the season. That means Griffen needs to make sure Newton spends most of his day either running wildly or staring into the dirt/sky.

Prediction

Sure, the Panthers offensive line held up decently overall in 2015 considering Oher and Remmers were the starting tackles. Newton was pressured on a manageable 35.6 percent of his dropbacks, per PFF, which ranked a mid-pack 14th.

But that was more so a statement on the competition. The Panthers faced few top-10 pass-rushers during the regular season, and then in the Super Bowl they were exposed by the Miller-led Broncos when Newton was sacked six times.

Griffen should provide the same sort of catalyst performance Sunday.

Travis Kelce vs. Calvin Pryor

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Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has something loosely in common with Calvin Pryor, the New York Jets safety who will spend much of his day covering the versatile pass-catcher.

One wants to be on a dating show but faced the unfortunate obstacle of having a girlfriend. The other had 50 women competing for his attention. Maybe Kelce can tell Pryor what it's like to have a woman from each state looking for love, and his love.

But there's a good chance he won't be in such a jovial mood.

Kelce has become a mismatch nightmare for opposing defenses, and the Chiefs know how to take advantage of his physical tools. He ran 41.8 percent of his routes from the slot in 2015, per PFF. His ability to morph into the classic wide receiver hiding in a tight end's body has translated to two straight seasons with 850-plus receiving yards.

However, the Jets haven't been kind to tight ends. They allowed an average of 47.4 receiving yards per game to the position in 2015, according to Football Outsiders. Pryor played a major role in that containment with his passer rating in coverage of 58.0, per PFF.

Prediction

Kelce has the physical gifts to separate, contribute and have the edge here. But just as it will be for every Chiefs pass-catcher, his fate rests with how functional the passing offense can be against the Jets' ferocious pass rush.

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