NFL Draft: Making Sense of Top QB Logjam After First 3 Weeks of Season

Three weeks into the college football season, the Power Five has given us a four-horse race in terms of quarterbacks who can potentially find themselves as first-round picks. If an NFL franchise is trying to find a franchise quarterback in the coming 2017 draft class, Notre Dame's DeShone Kizer, Clemson's Deshaun Watson, Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph and Miami's Brad Kaaya are a tier above any other eligible passers.

The biggest riser of the group is Kizer, who saw split reps throughout the spring but won the Fighting Irish's starting gig during his Week 1 performance against the Texas Longhorns. Despite Notre Dame losing two of the squad's first three games of the year, he's done enough to convince some, like CBS Sports' Dane Brugler, that he's the top passer in the class:

Kizer plays in a system which asks him to make several option runs, as either the dive or outside ball-carrier, which may lead some to consider him a dual-threat passer, but his bread and butter is what he can do as a vertical passer. In many ways, the redshirt sophomore—who is listed at 6'4" and 230 pounds on NFL Draft Scout—compares similarly to Jameis Winston or Eli Manning, who were both first overall selections in their respective draft classes.

In crunch-time situations this season, Kizer has thrown perfectly placed balls against the blitz on third down, the barometer of which most judge quarterback prospects by. He does need some refinement, just as Winston did coming out in 2015, but the ability to flip on a game-changing switch never goes away, as we learned during the former Florida State Seminoles' rookie season.

In 2014, the year before Winston was drafted by Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers were just 2-14. Since then, they've posted a 7-11 record, a difference largely attributed to their deep passing game.

That's the type of franchise-swinging momentum that Kizer can provide.

Right behind him in most quarterback rankings is Watson, who may have posted the best individual performance in a national championship game (405 passing yards, 4 TDs, 73 rushing yards) when the Clemson Tigers nearly came away with a win over Nick Saban's Alabama Crimson Tide last season. That effort elevated his draft status to being the guy in the 2017 class, but his team has started off slow in 2016.

Many of Watson's offensive skill players returned for the 2016 season, including receiver Mike Williams, who himself is a potential first-round pick and missed almost all of their 14-1 season due to a neck injury which occurred when he ran into a goal post. That set a high standard to which the passer has yet to meet expectations for.

Watson completed just 46 of 86 passes against Auburn and Troy, two one-score victories, with four passing touchdowns and three interceptions in the first two weeks. He executed a clutch touchdown drive against Auburn in Week 1 and rebounded in Week 3 with a 12-of-15 performance against South Carolina State, but a three-touchdown performance against a winless FCS squad is not what makes a first-round quarterback.

If you're still on the Watson wagon right now—and there's only a two-game sample to suggest that you should ditch the train all together—it's because of what he was able to do as a true sophomore in 2015, when he looked like a mix between Robert Griffin and Teddy Bridgewater, the second and third quarterbacks off the board in their respective classes.

Watson isn't a large quarterback, and that can be an issue for a dual-threat passer. According to NFL Draft Scout, he's listed at 6'2" and 210 pounds, about what Bridgewater showed up to the combine at when his draft stock started its slow plummet from a potential first overall pick to the final selection in the first round of the 2014 draft.

His injury history might concern some, too, as he sprained his MCL, broke his collarbone, had surgery on his hand, sprained his LCL and tore his ACL between his senior year of high school and his freshman year at Clemson. He's been healthy for well over a year now, but if another hiccup appears, those Griffin and Bridgewater comparisons may stick in a bad way for the Tiger.

The next two quarterbacks, Rudolph and Kaaya, are wild cards, but on opposite sides of the spectrum.

Rudolph plays in a wide-open Oklahoma State system that forces teams into quarters coverage and tries to test every inch of the field. Many will note that his ill-timed throwaway set up a thrilling victory for Central Michigan in Week 2, but he rebounded in Week 3 by throwing a touchdown from the 2-yard line, revving up the tempo for what the Cowboys offense would look like all game against the Pittsburgh Panthers.

At first, Pittsburgh let Rudolph sit in the pocket and pick them apart. If they played quarters, he was able to find deep outs, which he threw from the far hash, one of the most difficult passes a college quarterback can make.

When they didn't have a four-man shell on top of everything, he threw deep. When Pittsburgh sent the blitz at him, he responded over and over. At the end of the day, in an open offense with his arm talent, Rudolph flashes the ability to answer anything a defense throws his way.

He needs to be in a vertical system, as his deep ball is what he builds his game around. He doesn't have great mechanics, as he often forgets to close his shoulder to make a more accurate pass rather than just "arming" throws, but he can be Brock Osweiler early on in his career.

According to the Houston Texans, that's incredibly valuable, as Osweiler has a top-20 contract in the NFL, per Spotrac. Consistency against the likes of Texas, TCU, Oklahoma and in the postseason will be Rudolph's greatest test as the junior continues his rise up draft boards.

On the other hand, Kaaya, Miami's third-year true junior starter, isn't a vertical passer. In his opening game against an FBS opponent this season, Kaaya was 17-of-31 for 199 passing yards and two interceptions, a bad start between the pairing of him and new head coach Mark Richt, who groomed 2009 first overall pick Matthew Stafford while at Georgia.

In Week 3, he responded with a 21-of-27 effort for three touchdowns and an interception against Appalachian State, who went toe-to-toe with Tennessee earlier in the season. Now, those numbers are greatly influenced by the double-digit passes that Kaaya threw behind the line of scrimmage, but he looked like a functional prospect against the Mountaineers.

Kaaya only had two great throws in that game, both to true freshman receiver Ahmmon Richards, with one coming off of a screen pump fake, but it was his red-zone interception, a throw off of his back foot into the flats, that burns into your retinas.

He has yet to play a Power Five team this season, so we won't truly know who Kaaya is until he hits the bulk of Miami's ACC schedule. But if there's a quarterback who can take a Matt Barkley-type of drop from a preseason top-five pick to a mid-round passer out of this group, it's the Hurricanes' passer.

Of the four quarterbacks considered to be potential first-round picks, Kaaya has the lowest ceiling, as he's both the least talented in terms of arm strength and mobility. While anything Richt coaches up will be considered "pro-style," Kaaya's lack of fundamentals on that brutal interception and his offense, apparently built off of pop screens, is far from NFL-caliber.

There were a lot of uncertainties regarding this quarterback class in August. Watson and Kaaya were viewed as the cream of the crop, but Kizer had been practicing in a two-quarterback system leading up to the regular season and Rudolph was coming out of playing in a two-quarterback system in 2015.

Almost a month into the college football season, with the disappointments of former blue-chip passers like USC's Max Browne, who head coach Clay Helton has already benched, the top talents at the position have already begun to separate themselves. In a season which started with so many questions, there is a surprising amount of clarity at the top end of quarterback big boards.

If you're running a vertical system, Kizer, Watson and Rudolph are the players you need to be focusing on. If you were to rank them based off of their last two seasons, it would have to be in that order, due to Kizer's recent success, Watson's 2015 success and Rudolph's up-and-down history.

Watson also displays potential to be a spread coach's dream, and with the San Francisco 49ers under Chip Kelly and Cleveland Browns under Hue Jackson potentially looking for new passers this offseason, don't count out his potential to be the first name off the board.

The wait-and-see prospect, clearly in fourth place at this point in the season, is Kaaya, who is untested against quality opponents and doesn't have the arm strength to be considered more than an average quarterback on the next level. If he nails his upcoming tests against the likes of Florida State, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame and Pittsburgh, he may find himself back in the first-round conversation.

Kaaya needs to play in a West Coast style offense at the next level, though one where he's chipping away at underneath coverage to set up the other options on the field. However, until he's consistent with his mechanics, to avoid costly balls like his interception against Appalachian State, he shouldn't be considered a top-tier quarterback in this class.

Overall, this quarterback class is shaping up better than expected, as it was once a two-name competition. Now, it's shaping up to be the most well-rounded class in almost three years, since the 2014 class which featured current starters in Jacksonville's Blake Bortles, Minnesota's Teddy Bridgewater and Oakland's Derek Carr, along with two spot-starters in New England's Jimmy Garoppolo and Cincinnati's AJ McCarron.

Depending on what you want from a passer, there's something for everyone at the top end of this class.