What's the Comfort Level for Fantasy Studs Heading into Week 3?
We're two weeks into the 2016 NFL season and we've already seen some interesting developments relevant to the fantasy football world.
Young players like running back Melvin Gordon and wide receiver Stefon Diggs are establishing themselves as legitimate fantasy stars. Meanwhile, old fantasy favorites like Adrian Peterson and Danny Woodhead have gone down to significant injuries.
Injuries have also struck at the quarterback position. The New England Patriots, for example, find themselves relying on rookie Jacoby Brissett in the wake of Jimmy Garoppolo's shoulder injury. The Cleveland Browns are set to start their third quarterback in as many weeks due to injuries. Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler is expected to miss time with a thumb injury, per Ian Rapoport of NFL Network.
Naturally, quarterback injuries affect the pass-catchers on the involved teams.
Add in some tough matchups and there is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding some of fantasy's top stars in Week 3. Today, we're going to examine just how comfortable you should be starting some of the top fantasy stars this week.
For this list, we'll be looking at players who have been fantasy stars in the past, as well as top-25 positional scoring leaders from this season, according to NFL.com. We'll be looking at injury situations and at challenging matchups and providing a comfort level for each.
Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
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The Carolina Panthers might only hold a 1-1 record right now, but quarterback Cam Newton has been on figurative fantasy fire. Through two weeks, he has 547 passing yards, 91 rushing yards and six combined touchdowns.
NFL.com rates him second in quarterback scoring behind Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons.
This week, though, Newton faces off against a Minnesota Vikings defense that is ranked fifth in yardage (289.5 yards allowed per game) and sixth in scoring (15.0 points per game). This is a Vikings defense that just made Green Bay Packers star Aaron Rodgers look lost on Sunday night.
This is a tough matchup for Newton, but he has a couple of things going for him here.
For one, the Panthers are playing at home. This gives the team an advantage and should also benefit Newton, who won't be dealing with a hostile crowd when reading the defense.
Newton's size and mobility should also help him counter the Minnesota pass rush. He can freeze the blitz with his legs, pick up yards on the ground when being pursued and buy himself time in the pocket.
With quality outlet targets like Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin, Newton should produce a solid fantasy outing.
Comfort Level: Beach-Side Hammock and Bottle Service
Theo Riddick, RB, Detroit Lions
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If you've been playing in a points-per-reception (PPR) league, you're probably pretty familiar with Detroit Lions running back Theo Riddick. As Detroit's primary receiving back, he racked up 80 receptions and 830 combined rushing and receiving yards in 2015.
He has 108 combined offensive yards and two touchdowns so far this season.
Now, Riddick will become the focal point of Detroit's backfield. Lions starting back Ameer Abdullah was put on injured reserve Wednesday after suffering a foot injury this past week against the Tennessee Titans, per Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
Abdullah is expected to undergo further testing, but it would seem that he is set to miss at least a little time or play a reduced role.
This means that Riddick could become Detroit's primary runner as well as the team's top pass-catching back. This is tremendous news for those who own him in fantasy.
Abdullah faces a stiff test this week, as the Lions travel to Green Bay to battle the rival Packers. Pro Football Focus currently rates the Packers second overall in run defense. Still, we'd feel pretty good about giving Riddick a start based on his potential as a dual-threat back—this is especially true in PPR leagues.
Comfort Level: Picnic Blanket and Sandwiches
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears
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Chicago Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery can be a true playmaker and fantasy star when things are clicking and he is healthy. Though he has yet to find the end zone this season, he has produced nine receptions and 201 receiving yards so far this season.
The issue for Jeffery moving forward is that Bears quarterback Jay Cutler is dealing with ligament damage in his thumb. Cutler, per Rapoport, is expected to two to three weeks.
"It's hard for me to give timelines," Bears head coach John Fox said Tuesday of the injury, per Andrew Seligman of the Associated Press. "We'll evaluate tomorrow. We've got practice tomorrow, we're on a short week already. If Jay's ready to do it, fine. If not, we'll go with Brian Hoyer."
There's a very good chance that when Jeffery faces the Dallas Cowboys this week, he'll be doing so with journeyman Hoyer under center. The good news is that this shouldn't significantly affect his fantasy value.
Hoyer is an experienced quarterback with an adequate arm and a pre-existing relationship with Bears offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains.
Loggains was Cleveland's quarterbacks coach in 2014, the year Hoyer went 7-6 as a starter. Hoyer went 9-of-12 for 78 yards in relief of Cutler on Monday night. Against the Cowboys, Hoyer will face a pass rush that is rated just 30th in the NFL by Pro Football Focus.
Jeffery should still be a solid start.
Comfort Level: Sports Bar High Table
Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
4 of 9
Everyone knows that Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski is a fantasy stud when healthy. The problem is that he too often isn't fully healthy. In fact, he has yet to appear on the field this season because of a lingering hamstring issue.
There's a possibility Gronkowski will make his 2016 debut this Thursday against the Houston Texans, but it seems like a relatively slight one.
“We’ll see. Definitely going to be a coach’s decision, trainer’s decision. We’ll all come together,” Gronkowski said, per Ryan Hannable of WEEI.com. “Just doing everything I can right now to be as healthy as I can be. Improving every single day, basically day-by-day right now, taking it one day at a time."
If Gronowski does play he'll be doing so with rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett under center. Brissett will be making his first NFL start against a Texans defense that is rated fourth overall by Pro Football Focus.
Gronkowski will likely have some fantasy value if he can play. the Patriots will likely try to provide Brissett with a security blanket in the passing game—and there might not be a better one than Gronkowski. However, it certainly doesn't feel like the Patriots tight end will be set for a big game.
Comfort Level: Highway Ride in the Bed of a Wet Pickup
Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
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As we mentioned in the opening, Vikings star running back Adrian Peterson suffered a serious knee injury this past week while playing the Green Bay Packers. Specifically, he suffered a torn meniscus.
Peterson—who has just 50 yards rushing and zero touchdowns so far—hasn't been much of a fantasy stud this season. Traditionally, however, he has been one of the most consistent fantasy stars in the game. It's very difficult to believe that he would have been held in check all season if healthy.
Peterson told ESPN's Josina Anderson that he is planning to have surgery. She expects the running back to be out a minimum of three to four months.
The aggressive Carolina defense would almost certainly have administered a beating to the injured back.
Comfort Level: Cross-Country Bus Ride With No Bathroom Breaks
Stefon Diggs, WR, Minnesota Vikings
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Vikings receiver Stefon Diggs showed some flashes of star potential last season, and he's built upon those flashes in 2016.
So far, he has racked up an impressive 16 receptions for 285 yards and a touchdown. As far as emerging fantasy studs go, Diggs is at the top of the list. The presence of strong-armed quarterback Sam Bradford only seems to be helping his rise to stardom.
However, Diggs is facing a couple of notable obstacles this week. For one, he is going up against a physical Panthers defense. He and Bradford will be doing so without the aid of Peterson at running back.
Even though Peterson hasn't been especially effective this season, his presence on the field creates a focal point for opposing defenses. The Panthers are likely to spend less time stacking the box and more time rushing the passer with Peterson out.
All is not lost for Diggs, though. He seems to already have a solid rapport with Bradford, and without Peterson he becomes the centerpiece of the offense. If he can consistently find holes in the Carolina secondary, he could be in store for a solid day.
It's worth noting that the Panthers are only rated 18th in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus.
Diggs is worth a start, though the extent of his value will be determined by how much time Bradford finds behind Minnesota's offensive line.
Comfort Level: Riding in the Backseat of a Sports Car
A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
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Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green is regularly one of fantasy football's top producers. He's also gotten off to a strong overall start this season, racking up 218 yards and a touchdown through two games.
NFL.com ranks Green 13th in fantasy production among wide receivers.
It's worth noting, though, that most of Green's production came in Week 1 against the New York Jets. He managed just two receptions and 38 yards this past week against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The problem is that when Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton is harassed in the pocket, he tends to struggle. This, naturally, trickles down into poor number for Green. Dalton threw for 366 yards against the Steelers, but he did so on a whopping 54 pass attempts. He completed less than 58 percent of those attempts.
The challenge this week is the Denver Broncos defense. The Broncos defense appears to still be a championship-caliber unit, and it could pose trouble for Green.
The issue, it would seem, is in Denver's pass rush. The Broncos are rated just 12th in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus through Week 2 but are rated third in pass rush.
This could end up being another poor performance for Dalton, which in turn would likely mean a lackluster outing for Green.
Green's ability to produce massive plays means he always has some fantasy value. However, the chances of him having a huge day against Denver appear slim.
Comfort Level: Napping on a Wet Park Bench
C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos
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Broncos running back C.J. Anderson battled through an up-and-down season in 2015, but it seems he has returned to fantasy stardom this year. Through two weeks, Anderson has racked up 166 yards rushing, 68 yards receiving and three total touchdowns.
According to NFL.com, Anderson is currently third in fantasy scoring among running backs.
The challenge facing Anderson this week is the Cincinnati Bengals, who are having their home opener. Not only must Anderson play in a hostile environment, he must do so against a perennial playoff team and a defense that was one of the best in the NFL (just 17.4 points per game allowed per game) a year ago.
In addition, Anderson will be playing with a quarterback who is making just his third pro start.
The reality, though, is that the challenge in front of Anderson isn't as daunting as it might initially appear. The Bengals have been pretty darn bad against the run so far this season—the team is actually ranked last with an average of 138.0 yards per game allowed—and Denver's defense can set Anderson up for success.
Cincinnati is going to play a physical brand of football, there's no question about that. However, if the Broncos can manage even a slight early lead, Anderson could see a very significant workload as Denver tries to shorten the game.
In fact, quarterback Trevor Siemian's inexperience might even work in the favor of Anderson owners, as Denver will be apt to protect him against Cincinnati's pass rush with a strong running attack.
Comfort Level: Leather Recliner and Fully Stocked Cooler
Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers
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San Diego Chargers running back Melvin Gordon struggled to become a fantasy star as a rookie in 2015, but he is definitely turning things around this season.
Through two weeks, Gordon has produced 159 yards rushing and three touchdowns. He is listed as the fourth-best fantasy back by NFL.com.
Gordon does face some challenges, though, because other offensive playmakers have been lost from the San Diego offense. The Chargers are now without wide receiver Keenan Allen and utility back Danny Woodhead, as each has suffered a torn ACL.
This means that opposing defenses now have the freedom to put more focus on Gordon.
Gordon owners shouldn't worry too much this week, though. Just as opposing defenses will be apt to focus on Gordon, the Chargers offense is likely to depend on the former Wisconsin star even more.
The defense opposing Gordon this week? The Indianapolis Colts, who are rated dead last in run defense by Pro Football Focus.
Expect Gordon to be just fine.
Comfort Level: Swaddled in Kittens
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