NFL Picks Week 3: Advice for Current Vegas Odds, Spreads and Over/Under Lines
The days when the only thing that mattered in the NFL was whether your favorite team won or lost are long gone.
Other areas of interest such as fantasy football and, yes, betting have taken over the way many people consume the NFL product. In fact, the winner of the game doesn't even matter if you are betting on the over/under lines.
Week 3 of the 2016 season brings an entirely new slate of games for fans to gamble on, even if they don't have a large sample size of contests to fall back on for informed decisions. With that in mind, here is a look at the odds from Vegas, the over/under lines, projections for the games and specific bets to target.
Point spreads and over/under lines are courtesy of Odds Shark as of Tuesday at 12:30 a.m. ET.
| Houston Texans at New England Patriots | HOU -2.5 | Houston Texans |
| Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills | AZ -4 | Arizona Cardinals |
| Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans | TEN -1.5 | Oakland Raiders |
| Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins | MIA -10 | Miami Dolphins |
| Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars | Pick | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers | GB -7.5 | Green Bay Packers |
| Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals | CIN -3.5 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers | CAR -7.5 | Carolina Panthers |
| Washington at New York Giants | NYG -4.5 | New York Giants |
| Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TB -4.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks | SEA -9.5 | Seattle Seahawks |
| New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs | KC -3 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts | IND -2.5 | Indianapolis Colts |
| Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles | PIT -5 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys | DAL -4.5 | Dallas Cowboys |
| Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints | NO -3 | New Orleans Saints |
| Houston Texans at New England Patriots | 41 | Under |
| Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills | 47 | Over |
| Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans | 46.5 | Under |
| Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins | 41.5 | Over |
| Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars | 47 | Over |
| Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers | 48 | Under |
| Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals | Not listed at time of writing | -- |
| Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers | 43 | Under |
| Washington at New York Giants | 46.5 | Under |
| Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 42 | Under |
| San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks | 40.5 | Under |
| New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs | 43.5 | Over |
| San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts | 51.5 | Over |
| Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles | Not listed at time of writing | -- |
| Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys | Not listed at time of writing | -- |
| Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints | 53.5 | Over |
Point Spread to Target: Green Bay Packers (-7.5) vs. Detroit Lions
Aaron Rodgers has tormented the Detroit Lions throughout his career, and that is not going to stop on Sunday.
His career record against Detroit is 11-3, per Pro-Football-Reference.com, and Kyle Meinke of MLive noted that Rodgers' first loss in the series came when he missed the second half of a game in 2010 with a concussion.
Detroit actually won one of the two matchups with the Green Bay Packers last year, but Rodgers put up 333 passing yards and two touchdown throws in that contest. Had the Packers received more than 47 rushing yards on 18 carries (eight yards came from Rodgers himself), Rodgers likely would have beaten the Lions again.
The signal-caller got redemption in the next matchup with a game-winning Hail Mary to Richard Rodgers. He finished with 273 passing yards and three total touchdowns (one on the ground) in the 27-23 victory. What's more, he didn't have wide receiver Jordy Nelson for either of those games, and he will on Sunday.
The Week 3 showdown is also the home opener for the Packers, and the crowd at Lambeau Field should be fired up from the opening kickoff. That is especially the case since the Packers are looking to bounce back from Sunday's divisional loss to the Minnesota Vikings.
Look for Green Bay to play with a level of desperation in front of those fans because two early losses to NFC North foes would not be ideal with potential tiebreaking scenarios looming.
Rodgers isn't the only reason Green Bay will cover the spread against the Lions. Its run defense was dominant against the Vikings on Sunday and held Adrian Peterson to a mere 19 yards on 12 carries (before he left with a torn meniscus, according to Justin Gaard of KFAN). It also allowed just 17 points against Minnesota, and Ben Fennell of NFL Network highlighted why that was the case:
"#Packers defense allowed only 48yards on 26 rushes (1.7 avg) - including a long of only 7yds... And 7 tackles for loss (4 on first down)
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) September 12, 2016"
Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus singled out defensive lineman Mike Daniels in particular:
The Packers defense also limited the Jacksonville Jaguars to 23 points in Week 1 and stopped a critical fourth-down play late in the fourth quarter.
As for the Lions offense, it struggled to produce points against the Tennessee Titans in a 16-15 loss on Sunday. Matthew Stafford had one touchdown and one interception, while Theo Riddick compiled just 37 rushing yards on 11 carries (3.4 yards per attempt).
The Packers' run defense will force Detroit to be one-dimensional, especially with the crowd noise behind it, and Rodgers will do his usual work against the overmatched Lions on the other side of the ball.
Over/Under to Target: Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Under 42)
The Los Angeles Rams offense has looked downright incompetent this season during a 28-0 loss to the San Francisco 49ers and a 9-3 victory over the Seattle Seahawks. It has yet to score a touchdown through 120 minutes of game action, and that is exactly the type of performance those betting the under would benefit from in Week 3.
Running back Todd Gurley notched 47 yards on 2.8 yards per carry against San Francisco and 51 yards on 2.7 yards per carry against Seattle. He is supposed to be the featured star of the offense to carry Los Angeles into contention in its new home, but it has been easy for opposing defenses to bottle him up since quarterback Case Keenum has offered little protection in the passing attack.
Keenum has zero touchdown passes and two interceptions through the first two weeks. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can stuff the box against the Rams to contain Gurley because Keenum has yet to prove this year that he will make them pay for the strategy.
For as much as the Rams have struggled on the offensive side, the defense looked spectacular Sunday against Seattle. It allowed a mere three points and forced three fumbles, although Seattle recovered two of them. It also didn't let quarterback Russell Wilson escape from the pocket (14 rushing yards on five carries).
Alec Ogletree forced a fumble with less than a minute remaining in arguably the game's most critical moment, and head coach Jeff Fisher sang the linebacker's praises, per Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times: "To make that play, that's what he does and he's shown it before. Someone needed to make a play, and he got near the ball and he made the play."
Ogletree and the Rams face Jameis Winston and a Tampa Bay squad that looked lost on offense during a 40-7 loss to the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Winston threw four interceptions, and no Buccaneers rusher had more than 29 yards on the ground.
The Buccaneers offense is trending down after that performance, and now it will get a Rams defense that is trending up after shutting down Wilson and the Seahawks.
Los Angeles is abysmal on offense but has a favorable matchup when Tampa Bay's attack is on the field, which is a formula that should entice those who are leaning toward the under.
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