Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Indianapolis Colts are coming off a disappointing home loss to the Detroit Lions last week and will try to rebound on Sunday as road underdogs against the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos.

The Colts have started 0-2 each of the previous two seasons, bouncing back to make the AFC Championship Game two years ago but missing the playoffs altogether in 2015 due to injuries to quarterback Andrew Luck.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as four-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.7-14.6 Broncos (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Colts can cover the spread

This scenario is nothing new for Indianapolis, although the team lost its season opener on the road each of the previous two years. Fortunately for the Colts, they have enjoyed a lot of recent success versus the Broncos, winning eight of the past nine meetings straight up and going a perfect 9-0 against the spread during that stretch, according to the Odds Shark NFL Database.

However, Peyton Manning played in all of those games for either Indy or Denver. This time, the Colts will get the opportunity to face Trevor Siemian. While Siemian was solid in his first career start, his inexperience opposite Luck could be the difference as Indy looks to win for the ninth time in 10 matchups against Denver.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Defensively, the Broncos are the superior team. The Colts are also banged up in the secondary, so Siemian would be wise to take advantage of that situation. The key for Denver is sticking with a simple, conservative game plan by running the ball with C.J. Anderson and not putting too much pressure on Siemian to make plays.

The Broncos cannot afford to get into a shootout against Luck, who proved last week that Indy is never out of a game despite falling 39-35 to the Lions. Denver is 6-1 SU in its last seven games after winning as an underdog in Week 1 against the Carolina Panthers, and it should have a lot more confidence heading into this matchup than if the team had lost its season opener.

Smart pick

Even though the Colts have gotten off to 0-2 starts in the past and recovered, they need to find a way to win this game and have gone 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games when coming off a loss. The Broncos are not the same kind of offensive team without Manning, so look for Luck to go after them through the air as the Colts cover the spread en route to the upset.

Betting trends

The Colts are 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS in their last nine games against the Broncos.

The total has gone over in nine of the Colts' last 11 games against the Broncos.

The Broncos are 6-1 SU in their last seven games after winning as an underdog.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.