NFL Week 1 Picks: Odds, Over/Under Predictions for Every Game
The Oakland Raiders open the season on the road against the New Orleans Saints, and in past years, this game would have been a blowout for the home team.
We don't see it that way this time around. That's because the Raiders are an up-and-coming team with balance on offense and one of the game's best stars on defense in Khalil Mack. They should have every chance of going into the Superdome and handing the Saints a defeat on their home field.
The Saints are one-point favorites, and the total in the game is a robust 51 points, according to Odds Shark.
The Raiders should win the game outright and therefore cover the spread, but we also like the over, even though the total is tied for the highest on the board along with the Detroit Lions-Indianapolis Colts game.
The Oakland offense boasts Derek Carr at quarterback, Latavius Murray at running back and Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree at wide receiver. The Saints are going to have trouble slowing this group down.
Last year, New Orleans was miserable on defense, and while the team has brought in Nick Fairley and James Laurinaitis to help solidify that side of the ball, it's not going to happen quickly. Playing superb defense in the NFL is all about rhythm, timing and knowing exactly how teammates are going to react in specific situations. The Saints are nowhere near that position.
The Raiders are better defensively than the Saints, but they are not going to shut down Drew Brees on his home field. Look for the New Orleans quarterback to lead his team to at least three touchdowns, and that should be enough to put this game over since the Raiders should score 35 points or more.
Take the Raiders and the over.
| Carolina at Denver | CAR (-3) | 41.5 | Carolina; Under |
| Minnesota at Tennessee | MIN (-2) | 41 | Minnesota; Under |
| San Diego at Kansas City | KC (-7) | 44.5 | Kansas City; Under |
| Chicago at Houston | HOU (-6) | 44 | Chicago: Under |
| Oakland at New Orleans | NO (-1) | 51 | Oakland; Over |
| Green Bay at Jacksonville | GB (-4.5) | 48 | Green Bay; Over |
| Cincinnati at New York Jets | CIN (-2.5) | 41.5 | Cincinnati; Under |
| Cleveland at Philadelphia | PHI (-4) | 41 | Cleveland; Under |
| Buffalo at Baltimore | BAL (-3) | 44.5 | Baltimore; Over |
| Tampa Bay at Atlanta | ATL (-3) | 47.5 | Atlanta; Over |
| Miami at Seattle | SEA (-10.5) | 44 | Seattle; Under |
| New York Giants at Dallas | Even | 46 | New York Giants; Over |
| Detroit at Indianapolis | IND (-3.5) | 51 | Indianapolis; Under |
| New England at Arizona | ARI (-6) | 47 | New England; Over |
| Pittsburgh at Washington | PIT (-3) | 50 | Washington; Under |
| Los Angeles at San Francisco | LA (-2.5) | 44 | San Francisco; Under |
| All predictions are against the point spread. |
Bengals, Jets to engage in defensive struggle
The New York Jets had a tumultuous offseason, as it took them months to come to an agreement with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.
This was an exercise in hot air. While the Jets were right in their assessment that Fitzpatrick is not an elite quarterback, he is better than average and far better than backup Geno Smith. They should have found a compromise figure right away.
The Jets open the season against the Cincinnati Bengals, who have been a regular-season powerhouse. Both of these teams sport excellent defensive personnel.
The Jets are not going to win if they engage the Bengals in a high-scoring game, but they can win a defensive battle that emphasizes possession, field position and avoiding turnovers.
That's the kind of game that head coach Todd Bowles will have to play, and Marvin Lewis is probably willing to go along with it since the Bengals are on the road.
The total in this game is 41.5 points, and the contest has a score of 21-17 or lower written all over it.
The Jets are going to depend on defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson to set the tone, while the Bengals are going to do the same with defensive tackle Geno Atkins. Both men excel at controlling the interior line and collapsing the pocket by pushing the center and guards back in the quarterback's face.
Take the under in this game.
Pats, Cardinals to put on offensive show
The highest-profile game in Week 1 will see the Tom Brady-less New England Patriots travel to Arizona to take on the Cardinals.
NBC will televise this game Sunday night, and no one should miss it.
The Cardinals have a talented roster and a brilliant coach in Bruce Arians who excels at motivating his players to put on top performances. They were a game away from going to the Super Bowl last year.
Many of the experts who chronicle the NFL like the Cardinals to either win or get to the Super Bowl this year. Arians will have his team primed for a superb first game in front of the home fans.
The Cardinals will have to be at their best, though. While the Patriots won't have Brady, they are not going to be pushovers. Jimmy Garoppolo is an unknown at quarterback, but he is smart enough to get the ball to tight end Rob Gronkowski whenever possible. He also has the duo of Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola to help bail him out of tough spots.
LeGarrette Blount may not break a lot of big runs against Arizona, but his pounding in the first half could pay dividends in the second.
The Cardinals are going to come at the New England defense with an array of weapons, including Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, David Johnson, Chris Johnson and Michael Floyd. New England defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will come up with a good game plan, but he will only succeed at slowing down Arizona and not stopping this vaunted offense.
The Cardinals are six-point favorites, and the total is 47 points. Look for the Pats to stay within the number in a high-scoring game. The over comes through in this one.
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