NFL Predictions Week 1: Picks and Projections for Top Upsets on the Schedule

Week 1 is a great time for bettors to become accustomed with the ways of picking an upset.

With Las Vegas having the same tools to work with as bettors at the start of the season, a close look at each game on the slate will reveal much in the way of exploitable lines.

Said tools, of course, boil down to last year's results, roster analysis and the mother of all betting rules—projection.

Applying those tools to Week 1 reveals a few matchups with some interesting odds. For bettors willing to throw down on some midweek lines, they're important ones to hit before Las Vegas can adjust. 

NFL Week 1 Odds

Matchup	Spread	Predicted Winner
Carolina at Denver (TNF)	CAR -3	CAR 17-10
Buffalo at Baltimore	BAL -3	BUF 20-17
Green Bay at Jacksonville	GB -5.5	GB 27-20
San Diego at Kansas City	KC -7	KC 33-20
Oakland at New Orleans	NO -1	NO 21-17
Chicago at Houston	HOU -6.5	HOU 30-17
Cleveland at Philadelphia	PHI -4	CLE 24-20
Minnesota at Tennessee	MIN -2	MIN 23-20
Tampa Bay at Atlanta	ATL -3	TB 24-23
Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets	CIN -3	CIN 27-23
Miami at Seattle	SEA -10.5	SEA 20-7
N.Y. Giants at Dallas	E	NYG 24-20
Detroit at Indianapolis	IND -4	IND 28-24
New England at Arizona	ARI -6	ARI 27-17
Pittsburgh at Washington (MNF)	PIT -3	WAS 23-14
L.A. Rams at San Francisco (MNF)	LA -3	LA 17-13

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Top Upset Picks

Buffalo at Baltimore (-3)

It's almost like last season never happened. 

There, the Baltimore Ravens were one of the most injured teams in the league and stumbled to a 5-11 record. The Buffalo Bills, on the other hand, managed to go 8-8 in their first year of direction under head coach Rex Ryan and perhaps found a long-term option at quarterback with Tyrod Taylor.

Granted, a line of three suggests home-field advantage and little else, but it's still an exploitable line.

Buffalo only surrendered an average of 22.4 points per game last year, a number the unit can improve on this year right out of the gates as it encounters Joe Flacco, who returns from a devastating knee injury last year.

As much as this matchup seems about defense, though, it is Taylor who will give the Bills the edge. The man threw for 3,035 yards and 20 touchdowns last year with another 568 yards and four scores on the ground.

So long as Taylor takes care of the football, he won't allow the Bills to fall into a one-dimensional attack, and the versatility of it will keep the Ravens on heels, not toes. That's the recipe for upending a healthy Baltimore squad, especially one needing to work its way back to regular programming after such an injury-riddled season. 

Prediction: Bills 20-17

Cleveland at Philadelphia (-4)

Going with the Cleveland Browns on any line isn't the easiest thing in the world for a bettor to do, even going against a huge overhead in a game the team seems sure to lose. 

So why the upset nod here?

For starters, the Philadelphia Eagles enter this year after a 7-9 season and haven't backed down from starting rookie quarterback Carson Wentz. Not only is Wentz a rookie with a hodgepodge of names around him, he's going against a defense with some explosive talent such as Danny Shelton and Joe Haden.

This is more about the new-look Browns, though. New head coach Hue Jackson has revamped the offense around Robert Griffin III. Not only that, he's secured a solid No. 1 wideout in rookie Corey Coleman, and Terrelle Pryor has locked down a starting gig on the other side.

Pro Football Focus' Sam Monson was one of many to offer praise on Pryor over the preseason:

It's a rather underrated attack when one also factors in tight end Gary Barnidge, who hauled in nine touchdown passes last year. This is especially the case when remembering the Eagles coughed up an average of 134.6 rushing yards and 26.9 points per game last year.

In a battle of teams ironing out issues and forging ahead, the team with the higher upside and chances at a big play will come out on top.

Prediction: Browns 24-20

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-3)

An experienced bettor saw this line and started rubbing his or her hands together well after throwing down some coin. 

It's understandable many might go with the Atlanta Falcons here. But keep in mind the Falcons haven't finished better than .500 since 2012, and the transition away from Mike Smith to Dan Quinn at head coach is all of one season underway.

The biggest point, of course, is last year's sweep of the Falcons by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with rookie Jameis Winston under center. Winston only threw for 4,042 yards and 22 touchdowns to 15 interceptions last year, but he showed he had what it takes against an NFC South rival by throwing a pair of scores in the process.

Clearly, Tampa Bay resides on the elevator up. Winston and Mike Evans make for one of the deadliest combos in the league, and Doug Martin announced his return to relevance last year with 1,402 yards and six scores.

The same praise doesn't fall on the Falcons, not with Matt Ryan struggling last year and Julio Jones limping around this preseason. A Devonta Freeman-led backfield sounds good, but keep in mind Gerald McCoy and Tampa Bay kept him in check last year, limiting him to 88 rushing yards or less and no scores over the season series.

Though the Buccaneers are the road team here, Winston and the rest of the young core have the momentum and talent in the right areas to once again flex some newfound muscle in a divisional encounter.

Prediction: Buccaneers 24-23

Stats courtesy of NFL.com and are accurate as of September 7. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.