Fantasy Football Week 17: Thursday's Daily Fantasy Market Report

Daily fantasy football players are tasked with converting the news and trends from around the NFL each week into actionable and successful investments in the DFS marketplace. 

Most traditional fantasy leagues have concluded, but we continue to play the daily game all the way through the playoffs.

The NFL news cycle is always churning out meaningful updates that we must sift through to gain an edge. For example, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers missing Doug Martin to a suspension, per Fred Goodall of the Associated Press (via Yahoo), and Charles Sims to injured reserve with a pectoral injury, per Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times, tailback Jacquizz Rodgers is a fine building block for DFS lineups against a porous Carolina Panthers rush defense. 

We detail this situation and other significant scenarios heading into the final week of the regular season. Join us in discussing several key news items affecting the daily fantasy football market for Week 17, and please share your thoughts and lineup questions in the comments below.

Building Around the New England Backfield in Week 17

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We've seen Dion Lewis thrive as a dynamic featured weapon for the New England Patriots before. Last season, for example, the shifty Pitt product was fifth in fantasy points per game in ESPN points-per-reception scoring formats over a seven-game sample.

This season, Lewis' role has been somewhat limited as he slowly gets reintegrated from a serious knee injury and with backfield peer LeGarrette Blount leading the league in rushing touchdowns. That said, Lewis has earned a significant workload over the past two games, with 37 touches and some impressive elusiveness on tape.

Blount makes for a prudent investment this week since he leads the NFL in red-zone touches with 62 and has multi-touchdown upside as the Patriots enter Miami as sizable favorites over the Dolphins, per OddsShark. Lewis is an intriguing tournament ticket given the sheer upside his recent usage profile supports.

Miami has surrendered 108.5 rushing yards per game to tailbacks this season—fourth-most in the league—while allowing a generous 4.59 yards per carry and the fifth-most yards before initial contact per rush.

With the Patriots proving run-heavy as road favorites—they are third in the NFL with 383 rushes from their tailbacks this season—we find interest in both backs this week as daily fantasy assets.

Tampa Bay's Backfield Changes Create Increased Value for Jacquizz Rodgers

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It's been a busy news week for the Tampa Bay Bucs backfield. 

Doug Martin had been phased out of the team's offensive plans last week as a healthy scratch, and which makes more sense after news surfaced Wednesday he's been suspended for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy. 

Gifted receiving back Charles Sims has been injured for much of the season and was placed on injured reserve Wednesday with a pectoral injury. 

We speculated earlier this week that Jacquizz Rodgers could earn increased value against the Carolina Panthers, but we now have confirmation he's the bell-cow back due a rewarding workload in this division battle.

The Bucs have an unlikely path to a postseason berth, requiring a nine-team parlay to unfold in their favor, but the key point is this path begins with winning Sunday—indicating their best effort on offense is on the way.

The Panthers have been generous to tailbacks since linebacker Luke Kuechly went down with an injury, allowing nearly 4.7 yards per carry and 2.54 yards before initial contact per rush.

We've seen Rodgers thrive via a volume-driven role before, as he averaged 18.6 fantasy points on DraftKings over a three-game sample as the team's feature back from Week 5 to Week 8 earlier this season. Found at just $4,900 on DraftKings and $5,200 on FanDuel, Rodgers offers an affordable path to 20 touches on a week when it's wise to spend up for premium wideouts like Jordy Nelson and Mike Evans.

Sifting Through Seattle's Backfield for DFS Value

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We've been waiting this week for some revealing information about the Seattle Seahawks backfield. With encouraging news emerging Wednesday that tailback Thomas Rawls was a full participant in practice, per the team's site, we find increased confidence for this inviting matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. 

The 49ers have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing backs this season and 150.2 rushing yards per game to tailbacks, the most in the NFL and third-most by an NFL defense since 2001.

With Seattle still playing for playoff positioning, we can expect a full allotment of snaps and touches for Rawls. He is reasonably priced on both marketplaces and is an ideal investment with a ceiling around 26 fantasy points on DraftKings, according to Fantasy Labs.

Stacking Backs in the Georgia Dome for Week 17

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When the Atlanta Falcons played the New Orleans Saints back in Week 3, their tailback tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman tied for the top fantasy scores among running backs that week in ESPN leagues. 

The fantasy fun was fueled by 296 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns between the dynamic duo. Given this awesome precedent and the fact this week's rematch has the highest implied total of the slate by more than a touchdown, per OddsShark, we're again investing in this backfield.

Coleman is more of a tournament option given the wider outcome spectrum his change-of-pace role indicates, while Freeman is third in the NFL in red-zone touches and is arguably the top pivot from David Johnson as the premier upside play among tailbacks this week. 

On the other side of the field, there is an open agenda to feed Mark Ingram the ball to meet a production milestone, as ESPN.com's Mike Triplett reported: "Saints OT Zach Strief said of RB Mark Ingram, who needs 60 yards for his first 1,000-yard season: 'We're very well aware of what Mark needs to get to 1,000, and it's a big goal for us this week. I think it's important to all of us.' … Worth noting for those still making fantasy decisions."

The Falcons have allowed the fifth-most points per drive to opponents and one of the highest touchdown-per-drive rates in the league; therefore, Ingram joins the Falcons backs as an inviting target. 

With such a robust point total in place for this game and the average total score this season in the Georgia Dome sitting at nearly 62 points per game, there is great interest in stacking the backfield commodities in daily fantasy competition.

Sunday Night's NFC North Battle Is a Key DFS Showdown

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Identifying games to target is a key strategy for daily fantasy. In Week 17, with a challenging climate with playoff implications influencing the market in several ways, identifying the correct games to invest in is even more important than most weeks. 

With this in mind, we're interested in acquiring multiple shares of Sunday night's pivotal matchup for the NFC North title between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. The game checks all the boxes we covet for a positive production climate: a robust point total that rates second-highest of the slate with a tight point spread that indicates positive game script from both teams, per OddsShark.

We also find two stellar signal-callers in place, as Aaron Rodgers has produced 11 touchdowns and no picks over the team's five-game winning streak. He tallied four touchdowns against the Lions at Lambeau Field back in Week 3, while Matthew Stafford netted a season-high 30.8 fantasy points on DraftKings thanks to 385 yards and three touchdowns. 

The Packers have ceded the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks on DraftKings, while the Lions have yielded the eighth-most. The Lions have the lowest pressure rate on opposing passers this season, while Rodgers has the fourth-highest touchdown rate from a clean pocket.

As for stack targets for these respective signal-callers, Rodgers has enjoyed a passer rating of 148.9 targeting Jordy Nelson over the past five games with 528 yards and five scores. For Stafford, Golden Tate has consumed a team-high 30.1 percent of the receiving yardage since Week 7.

Minnesota Among Top Defensive Value for Week 17

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Selecting the right defense and special teams can become a differentiating decision in daily fantasy football. In this final week of the regular season, three defenses claim unique upside and value for DFS purposes.

Minnesota Vikings 

The Vikings lead the NFC in creating pressure on opposing passers with a hit, hurry or sack created on 31.7 percent of dropbacks. Chicago Bears interim signal-caller Matt Barkley has struggled under pressure this season, producing just 2.7 yards per dropback while ranking 33rd out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks in passer rating over the past five weeks.

Arizona Cardinals

Jared Goff has been sacked on 9.2 percent of his dropbacks this season, the second-highest rate among quarterbacks with at least 180 attempts. The Cardinals have produced a sack on 7 percent of opposing dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL. Arizona is also particularly blitz-happy, ranking second in the NFL with additional rushers sent on 37.5 percent of dropbacks.

New York Jets

The Jets rank just behind the Cardinals with a blitz sent on 37.3 percent of opposing dropbacks, third-highest in the NFL. With the Bills turning to backup quarterback EJ Manuel this week—who sits 36th in passer rating and 38th in yards per dropback among the 42 quarterbacks with at least 500 since he joined the league in 2013—we find interest in New York as a cheap defensive gem this week.

Quarterback Bargains in Daily Fantasy for the Season Finale

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Beyond the chalk options at quarterback such as the Atlanta Falcons' Matt Ryan and the Green Bay Packers' Aaron Rodgers, it helps to detect which other signal-callers could prove productive in this final week of the regular season. With this in mind, we've isolated three names of note to consider as viable pivots from the aforementioned superstar signal-callers.

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks 

Since Week 2, the San Francisco 49ers have surrendered the most points per drive and the highest touchdown rate to opponents. Wilson has tallied seven passing touchdowns and amassed 16 rushing attempts over the past two games, which suggests he's peaking at an ideal time to face this generous defensive foe.

Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars

Fresh from his best game of the season with a rousing win over the Tennessee Titans, Bortles faces an Indianapolis Colts defense that rates 30th in pass coverage and last in pass rush at Pro Football Focus.

Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs

This one is all about reasonable pricing, as Smith is just $5,000 on DraftKings—which is the lowest possible price on the site for a quarterback. With the division title potentially hanging in the balance, we can expect a full game from Smith against a San Diego Chargers defense he produced a season-high 32.02 fantasy points against in the opener this year.

Data such as target share, pressure and sack rates, and yards before contact sourced from an ESPN database.