Fantasy Football Week 16: Takeaways from the Weekend's Action

The holiday weekend coincided with the championship in most fantasy football leagues. Did you get the gifts you really wanted? Many wanted heaps of touchdowns and the glory of fantasy titles.

For some managers, it was "Feliz Navi-David Johnson," as the Arizona Cardinals' David Johnson produced yet another multitouchdown showing with at least 100 scrimmage yards while cementing his status as the fantasy MVP this season.

We also saw some young signal-callers lost for the season with troubling leg injuries, while some talented young tailbacks face injuries. Join us as we canvas Week 16 from a fantasy perspective in this piece. As always, feel free to share your thoughts and questions in the comments below.

Is Travis Kelce the Top Tight End in Fantasy for 2017?

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Before you mock the validity of the argument, let's evaluate if Travis Kelce is a candidate to become the top tight end for fantasy purposes in 2017.

The Kansas City Chiefs' top target tallied 160 yards against the Denver Broncos on Sunday night and has at least 100 yards in five of his past six games (six overall) this season.

Kelce now has a career-best 1,117 yards and 84 receptions on the season. Since Week 7, only the Green Bay Packers' Jordy Nelson has more than Kelce's 865 yards during this stretch.

The New England Patriots' Rob Gronkowski certainly has more scoring upside than Kelce, yet he has a troubling injury history and endured another season-ending injury.

The Washington Redskins' Jordan Reed has dealt with a disconcerting series of concussions in his career, as well as other injuries.

This isn't to eliminate these elite options from the discussion for the top pick at the position next year, but rather highlight the realistic angle for Kelce as the top asset at this shallow market next season.

The Carolina Panthers' Greg Olsen has a record three straight 1,000 seasons but is turning 32 in March, while Kelce is 27. 

Among the best after-the-catch weapons in the NFL and an emergent focus of Kansas City's offense, Kelce is an entirely intriguing commodity for 2017 and a real candidate as the top option among tight ends.

Jordan Howard Making a Case for 2nd-Round Value in 2017

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The Chicago Bears' Jeremy Langford was a polarizing fantasy pick last summer, as many doubted his talent and believed his price was really about the assumed opportunity as the team's starting tailback heading into the season.

By Week 3, rookie Jordan Howard had already usurped Langford as the feature back and essentially never looked back. Since Week 3, Howard ranks eighth in fantasy points among backs in ESPN standard scoring and fifth in yards from scrimmage with an impressive 1,445 over this successful sample.

Howard led the league with seven broken tackles while carrying the pigskin in Week 16, per Pro Football Focus, evidence of his elusive skill set and ability to produce yardage behind a middling offensive line. 

Along with ascendant wideout Cameron Meredith, the Bears claim some intriguing skill players heading into 2017. Given his youth and proven ability to produce with a heavy workload, Howard will be an early-round investment in fantasy formats in 2017.

Buffalo's Passing Game Proves Prolific in Week 16

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Tyrod Taylor had never topped 300 yards in his career before Saturday's 329-yard explosion against the Miami Dolphins.

With six passing scores over his past three starts, the Buffalo Bills quarterback has made a strong argument to remain the team's starting signal-caller for 2017 and is a strong fantasy starter in season-long and daily fantasy leagues for Week 17 against a generous New York Jets secondary he lit up for three passing scores in Week 2.

Wideout Sammy Watkins finally resurfaced with a brilliant array of big plays in Week 16, which might have come too late for his managers given he tallied just 10 yards in Week 15. Yet with a touchdown in two of the past three and an average of 22 yards per catch in Week 16, Watkins is also a fine fantasy commodity this coming week against a New York secondary that rates 31st in pass coverage, per Pro Football Focus.

The most intriguing angle for this ascendant passing offense could be Charles Clay, as the tight end has four scores over the past three weeks and has proven pivotal for those who streamed him in the fantasy playoffs. We don't trust Clay as a viable fantasy commodity for 2017 given the larger suspect sample of production over his career, but we do appreciate shares of him against a soft Jets secondary in Week 17.

As for next season, deflated shares of Watkins will prove polarizing given his lingering foot issues, but there is obvious upside. Taylor, meanwhile, has become a strong streaming option this season and could be a bargain once again next summer. 

Jay Ajayi Explodes for 3rd 200-Yard Showing of Season

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If only Jay Ajayi could face the Buffalo Bills every week, he'd end up with 3,360 rushing yards based on this season's results. The Miami Dolphins feature back has tallied 420 yards on the ground against the Fins this season after enjoying his third 200-yard effort of the season on Saturday—becoming the fourth player with three such performances in a season, per ESPN Stats & Info.

With the team's success this season, head coach Adam Gase will remain in place, which bodes well for Ajayi's job security and usage pattern for next season. While his production pattern was somewhat boom or bust, we can't deny the fact Ajayi ranks third in touches and fourth in yards from scrimmage since assuming the feature role for Miami in Week 6.

Ajayi helped deliver championships to those still in the hunt this week while he's emerged as a likely second-round asset heading into 2017 drafts thanks to his prolific big-play ability on the ground.

Adam Thielen Emerges as League-Winning Wideout

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Do you remember Drew Bennett? Not that kid from middle school; we mean the Tennessee Titans wideout who enjoyed a scintillating touchdown-filled finish to the 2004 season. The UCLA product led many fantasy teams to glory that season with nine touchdowns over his final five games.

This season, the Minnesota Vikings' Adam Thielen earns the Drew Bennett Award for the random dude who delivered a season-shifting performance in the championship phase of the fantasy season.

To be fair, Thielen was a no-show in Week 15 with a neck injury, but his epic Week 16 opus against the Green Bay Packers included 12 receptions, 202 yards and two scores. This resulted in a slate-shifting 32 fantasy points in ESPN standard leagues and made franchise history, as we learn below:

"

.@athielen19 becomes the 3rd WR in franchise history with 2 receiving TDs and 200 receiving yards in a game.

— Vikings PR (@VikingsPR) December 24, 2016"

With at least 86 yards in three of his past four games, Thielen has made himself significant coin heading into restricted free agency in the coming offseason. Even as the team is eliminated from the playoffs, facing the rival Bears, a team that just saw the Washington Redskins move the ball with ease in the air, Thielen is a fine WR2 option with obvious upside.

The telling information for his future fantasy stock will come in March, when we find out if Thielen remains in Minnesota or hits the market for a meaningful payday.

Star Signal-Callers Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota Suffer Serious Leg Injuries

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The Oakland Raiders clinched their first playoff berth this past Saturday afternoon since 2002, ending the longest drought in the NFL. As a counter to this successful achievement, the team lost breakout quarterback Derek Carr to a broken fibula on a late-game sack while enjoying a significant lead.

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports Carr and the Titans' Marcus Mariota suffered similar fates on Saturday, with Tennessee's quarterback fracturing his fibula. It's entirely rare for the Raiders to head into the postseason with such success this season sans their starting signal-caller, per Schefter:

"

Here's how unique Derek Carr injury is: Since playoffs began in 1933, no QB with 12+ regular-season W's has failed to start postseason game.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 25, 2016"

As for Mariota, his amazing red-zone rapport—he has 33 touchdowns and zero picks in this range over his career, per Sportsnet Stats—supported a stellar fantasy season. The Oregon product is sixth in fantasy points among quarterbacks since Week 5 and eighth overall in ESPN standard scoring entering Week 17.

The Raiders will turn to Matt McGloin, who has a career ratio of 11 touchdowns to 11 picks and just a 58.3 completion clip. The Titans will start veteran journeyman Matt Cassel, who similarly offers little upside and a middling statistical history. We're not using either quarterback in lineups in Week 17 as both respective offenses take significant deflations in upside as a result.

The key takeaway is we've gained two special starting quarterbacks for fantasy purposes going forward. Carr has a tandem of elite wideouts to lean on in the coming seasons, while Mariota could truly ascend if the Titans get him a more formidable set of targets.

The Bengals Set to Shut Down A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert

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A wave of reports surfaced this past Saturday afternoon leading up to the Cincinnati Bengals' tilt with the Houston Texans in Week 16. The news revealed wideout A.J. Green wouldn't risk further injury and is likely to sit out the remainder of the campaign due to a significant hamstring injury suffered earlier this season, per Schefter.

The other bit of meaningful news revealed tight end Tyler Eifert is also likely to be shut down for the remainder of the season, according to the NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

These updates aren't so surprising for a team eliminated from postseason contention, with both players proving vital for the team's future. Green was on pace for career highs in targets, receptions and yardage before suffering the hamstring injury. Eifert was flashing his rare scoring skill set before enduring another injury.

Green is an entirely bankable superstar and is arguably the fourth wideout off the board next summer in drafts given he doesn't claim a troubling injury history. Eifert, meanwhile, has struggled to stay on the field for much of his career but brings obvious upside to a shallow position. The Notre Dame product is a key risk/reward investment for 2017. 

As for the team's offensive prospects going forward, we really only identify Brandon LaFell as an intriguing Week 17 flex option as the veteran wideout has at least 91 yards in three of the past four with two scores over this sample. 

In the end, injuries and disappointing play from Andy Dalton felled the Bengals in both real and fantasy football in 2016.

Lamar Miller Could Sit Again with Houston Clinching the Division

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The final week of the season can prove frustrating to navigate for fantasy football managers given how teams can rest players with postseason positioning fixed heading into Week 17.

For example, the Texans clinched the AFC South on Saturday night. Feature tailback Lamar Miller—who was sidelined in Week 16 with an ankle ailment—has told reporters he's capable of returning to action next Sunday against the Chiefs. Per the Houston Chronicle's Aaron Wilson, Houston's staff "could elect to keep starting running back Lamar Miller on the sideline during their regular-season finale Sunday against the Tennessee Titans."

Without much consequence for this final game for either the Texans or the Titans, Alfred Blue is Miller's likely successor for touches. Blue was entirely helpful in Week 16 with 90 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown on 25 touches against the Bengals.

The Titans have ceded the fifth-fewest rushing yards to tailbacks this season, per NFL.com, but also just afforded the Jacksonville Jaguars' backfield a productive day, namely in the passing phase. Blue isn't a special talent but can earn rewarding production in a workhorse capacity. As a flex in deeper formats, we can appreciate Blue as a viable flex option, while Miller's disappointing season could actually serve to create some value for him in 2017 drafts if the team can finally find a stronger solution at signal-caller.

Carlos Hyde Suffers Season-Ending Knee Injury

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The San Francisco 49ers' feature back, Carlos Hyde, suffered a torn MCL on Saturday against the Los Angeles Rams, per Schefter.

The injury means Hyde won't play in Week 17 against the Seattle Seahawks, so tailbacks Shaun Draughn and DuJuan Harris will split the workload. Harris was productive in Hyde's place in a spot start in Week 9, yet it appears Draughn is the key candidate to consume a meaningful majority of work given he netted 16 touches and 65 total yards this past Saturday in the win over the Rams.

We're not enthused with either option, but Draughn earns some interest as a flier at flex in deeper formats and daily fantasy competition for the final game, especially in points-per-reception formats given his receiving pedigree. 

It's possibly more relevant to offer some context for Hyde's season, as we at least learned he can be a productive and bankable fantasy asset after an injury-plagued 2015 cast doubt over his ability to return value on a consistent basis. The Ohio State product finishes his 2016 effort with some surprisingly impressive fantasy metrics, as he's 14th in total fantasy points among tailbacks and 12th in per-game production in ESPN standard formats.

Questions over his ability to endure a heavy workload were answered, as Hyde tallied 18.7 touches per game—13th in the NFL—resulting in 88.5 scrimmage yards per game and nine touchdowns.

If Chip Kelly remains at the helm of the team next season, there is real reason to invest in Hyde as a high-end RB2 in 2017. While Kelly's debut in San Francisco didn't lead to much real success, his snap-happy system has generally proven fantasy-friendly for tailbacks and certainly for Hyde.

Data such as fantasy points, scrimmage and touch rates sourced from an ESPN database.