Fantasy Football Week 16: Weekly Fantasy Trends Report

It's title time in the realm of imaginary football competition. We've endured disappointing production, bad beats and injuries—well, not personally, but to our fantasy teams—throughout the long campaign. Now it's all about fine-tuning our rosters with respect to maximizing production during this upcoming weekend of NFL action. 

With injuries afflicting the backfields in Minnesota, San Diego and with the New York Jets, we're left with a series of decisions to deduce before Saturday's rich slate of games. Despite facing a New England Patriots defense that has allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league, we're still into starting shares of the Jets' Bilal Powell, for example, given his rare ability and upside in the receiving phase.

We find a revival for a superstar receiver on the Houston Texans—as DeAndre Hopkins might finally have some help under center. It's time to trust Nuk again.  

We cover these topics and more in canvassing the league for actionable fantasy counsel. As always, please share your thoughts and lineup questions in the comments.

Matt Forte Could Sit out Saturday's Game in Foxborough

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Jets RB Bilal Powell

The New York Jets' Matt Forte is one of just eight NFL players to have averaged at least 20 touches per game through Week 13 this season. Yet due to a knee injury suffered in Week 14 and now a shoulder ailment from Week 15, he's tallied just eight touches for 36 total yards over the past two games.

With the shoulder issue surfacing in the team's loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 15, ESPN.com's Rich Cimini notes Forte isn't sure if he'll play in New England on Saturday against the Patriots if he can't properly protect himself.

Over the past two games, tailback Bilal Powell has been a revelation in replacing Forte's workhorse workload, as he's second in the NFL with 30.5 touches and 170.5 yards from scrimmage per game over this successful sample. 

Powell was started in just 46 percent of Yahoo leagues last week, per Brad Evans, and in 59.2 percent of ESPN leagues. Even as the Jets enter Foxborough as the week's biggest underdogs, the potential for game script to trend pass-happy bodes well for Powell's prospects for a rich receiving role. Powell has averaged eight catches over the past two games and was seventh among backs last season with 1.66 yards per route run, per Pro Football Focus.

With Forte ailing and Powell thriving in his place, managers should confidently deploy the surging back as a high-floor RB2 in standard formats and a borderline RB1 in points-per-reception leagues.

Titans Among Streaming Defenses to Target in Week 16

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Every point counts during this win-or-go-home week in fantasy football. The most matchup-driven position in fantasy is team defense and special teams. With that in mind, here are some streaming options at the D/ST position that are available in more than half of ESPN leagues.

San Diego Chargers

We're breaking our ownership qualification to include the Bolts defense, but given they are rostered in 50.4 percent of ESPN leagues as of Wednesday night, it's a forgivable bend. The upside for this group is somewhat obvious, as their opponent, the winless Cleveland Browns, claim an inept offense scoring just 1.37 points per drive, the lowest rate in the AFC and 31st in the NFL.

The Browns have turned the ball over on 13.5 percent of opposing drives, above the league-average clip of 11.2 percent. San Diego is fifth in the NFL in pressure rate—defined as creating a hit, hurry or sack on opposing passers—at 30.5 percent of enemy dropbacks. Edge menace Joey Bosa has at least a half-sack in four straight games and is on a historic pressure pace, per Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke:

"

Bosa had 1 sack+5 hurries today. He remains on a historic pace with the most pressures for anyone in their 1st 10 games in the past decade pic.twitter.com/MuaOma4de6

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) December 19, 2016"

This pattern of persistent pressure is particularly relevant for this matchup given the Browns' Robert Griffin III rates 27th in passer rating under pressure this season and has completed just 35.7 percent of his attempts from a dirty pocket while taking a sack on 40.7 percent of his attempts in these scenarios—the highest rate of any passer with at least 10 attempts under pressure.

Tennessee Titans 

Available in 80 percent of ESPN leagues, the Titans D/ST could enjoy a meeting with a suspect Jacksonville offense. The Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles produced just 92 passing yards on 28 attempts last week. For the math majors among us, that is just 3.3 yards per attempt. For the historians, it's the fewest yards on as many as 28 attempts since Charlie "Clipboard Jesus" Whitehurst in 2014.

The Titans have blitzed opposing passers on 34.9 percent of dropbacks on the campaign, sixth-most in the NFL. Bortles' passer rating when blitzed this season is 69.3, 30th in the NFL. Bortles has thrown a pick on 3.6 percent of his attempts when facing the blitz, third-highest in the NFL. Add up these advanced metrics, and we find a simple suggestion to stream this defense in Week 16.  

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have produced at least seven fantasy points in five of their past seven outings and claim the league's highest sack-per-dropback rate since Week 10 at 9.2 percent—well above the league-average rate of 5.2 percent over this sample. The Baltimore Ravens have averaged a paltry 1.58 points per drive on the road this season, 18.9 percent lower than league-average scoring efficiency. As home favorites with a successful recent surge in pass-rush production, Pittsburgh is a sneaky streaming option.

Adrian Peterson Isn't a Viable Fantasy Option in Week 16

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The Minnesota Vikings superstar hasn’t topped 31 yards in a game this season and has amassed just 72 yards on 37 attempts. That doesn't appear efficient, now does it? Upon further inspection, Peterson ranks 71st out of 71 backs with at least 37 carries this season in yards per carry at just 1.95. 

We feel for those who were duped into deploying Peterson last week after reports on Sunday morning surfaced that he had looked like "his old self" in practice that week. Given his glaring struggles behind a line that rates 22nd in run blocking at Pro Football Focus and his long absence with a knee ailment, it's not surprising to see Peterson's status for this coming game is in doubt, as a groin injury has surfaced, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

Mark Craig of the Star Tribune reports on the growing doubt coming from Peterson for the team's upcoming game at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers. Peterson said, "Just taking it one day at a time. Resting up. I came out with a couple of nicks. Just taking it one day at a time and see how it feels."

Given the Vikings' inability to create running lanes and Peterson's plodding results so far, don't take the bait if he's active again this week, as it's wiser to look to the likes of the Denver Broncos' Justin Forsett or even the Vikings' goal-line back Matt Asiata if you're desperate for free-agent help.

Sleeper Alert: Cameron Meredith Set to Shine for Chicago

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Just when we thought Cam Meredith's contributions to the 2016 fantasy campaign were isolated to his early-season yardage bender with Brian Hoyer, the Chicago Bears wideout has resurfaced with another stretch of fantasy-relevant production with Matt Barkley behind center. 

Over the past three games, Meredith has a team-best 31.7 percent of Chicago's receiving yardage and 27.2 percent of the team's target market. With a target on a robust 29.8 percent of his routes and a catch rate of 72.0 percent, Meredith is mimicking WR1 usage and production over this stretch.

Since Week 12, Meredith has seven red-zone targets, tied for sixth in the NFL over that span. With Barkley averaging 43 passes in the team's three losses over the past month, we can again expect a volume-driven outing with the Washington Redskins' elite offense heading to Soldier Field on Saturday.

Meredith's rich share of the Bears offense wasn't compromised by the presence of Alshon Jeffery's return in Week 15, as he led the team with 13 targets to Jeffery's 10 in the loss to the Packers. Working largely from the slot and unlikely to net coverage from Josh Norman—that's likely Jeffery's fate—Meredith is a strong sleeper to consider this week.   

Melvin Gordon Appears Unlikely to Play in Week 16

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Chargers RB Kenneth Farrow

It's becoming a realistic scenario that we won't see Melvin Gordon on the field again this season. After suffering a hip injury that saw him carted off the field in Week 13 in Carolina, the San Diego Chargers' breakout back hasn't practiced since.

Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports Gordon remains sidelined with hip and knee ailments, adding to the likelihood we won't see him play in Cleveland in what is a choice matchup against the Browns. 

Cleveland has ceded 1,877 yards to tailbacks this season, most in the AFC and second to only the San Francisco 49ers leaguewide. Only the 49ers have allowed more yards before initial contact than the Browns' generous rate of 3.09, which is 29.0 percent higher than league average.

With Gordon appearing unlikely to play, the ripe matchup means we should give undrafted-free-agent rookie Kenneth Farrow a shot as a high-end flex or RB2 option this week. We realize he disappointed those who deployed him last week, producing just 54 total yards with a fumble despite playing on 74.5 percent of the team's offensive snaps—per Pro Football Focus—while netting 17 of the team's 24 touches from the backfield.

Farrow was started in 25.3 percent of ESPN leagues and remains available in 45.0 percent of leagues, which signals he's available to some teams still in the hunt. Avoid the recency bias of last week's sluggish showing and instead focus on the upside this coveted matchup in Cleveland offers.

Trusting Nuk: DeAndre Hopkins on the Ascent

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Houston Texans wideout DeAndre Hopkins was regularly taken in the first round of fantasy drafts this summer, as his average draft position of 9.3 as the fourth receiver taken in ESPN leagues suggests.

This past Sunday, however, Hopkins was started in just 46.7 percent of EPSN leagues, 21st among wideouts and on par with the likes of Tyreek Hill, Taylor Gabriel and Jamison Crowder—not exactly the peers we envisioned back in August.

We witnessed a meaningful shift for the Houston offense occur last week, as the team finally pulled the plug on the failed Brock Osweiler investment. While Osweiler is still tall, it's clear he's also not that good, as he's last in the league among 30 qualifying passers with just 5.25 yards per dropback—only Ryan Fitzpatrick of the New York Jets has a lower passer rating on the campaign.

Understudy Tom Savage entered the game against the Jaguars and was simply competent, which is all Hopkins has ever needed to be elite from a statistical perspective. Osweiler was picked off on his lone pass attempt to Hopkins in Week 15, while Savage completed eight of 14 targets for Hopkins. Savage is set to start this week for Houston, per Albert Breer of The MMQB. 

Hopkins' eight catches are the second-most of the season. Found at just $5,200 on DraftKings, we admire his newfound upside in daily fantasy play and wholly endorse deploying him as a starter in season-long competition now that he's not subjected to Osweiler's inept arm.

Data such as target share, defensive drive and pressure rates sourced from an ESPN database.