Fantasy Football Week 12: Thursday's Daily Fantasy Market Report

Daily fantasy football players are tasked with converting the news and trends from around the NFL each week into actionable and successful investments in the DFS marketplace.

The NFL news cycle is always churning out meaningful updates, which we must sift through to gain an edge.

For example, given the latest trends, the Seattle Seahawks' Thomas Rawls could dominate in his team's trip to Tampa Bay. Likewise, a pair of dudes named Tyler could consume rich receiving workloads for the Cincinnati Bengals in the wake of the team's rash of injuries.

We consume and convert this information into fantasy-relevant analysis in this piece.

We also detail several notable trends and matchup metrics that could prove influential for the week ahead in daily fantasy football. Join us in discussing several key news items affecting the daily fantasy football market for Week 12, and please share your thoughts and lineup questions in the comments below.

Chris Ivory Could Surge in Week 12 with T.J. Yeldon Ailing

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Since Nathaniel Hackett assumed offensive coordinator duties for the Jacksonville Jaguars heading into Week 9, we've seen bruising back Chris Ivory enjoy a revival of sorts. The expensive offseason import has consumed 53 touches over the past three games, 23 more than complementary back T.J. Yeldon over this span.

Yeldon was limited to just 11 snaps and six touches in Week 11 due to an ankle injury that sidelined him for much of the game. With Yeldon yet to practice this week, per ESPN's Michael DiRocco, Ivory could bring added value entering Week 12 as the Jaguars travel to Orchard Park, New York, to face the Buffalo Bills. 

Ivory was eighth among backs last season in fantasy points in ESPN leagues as a successful early-down weapon for the New York Jets. While a true revival to that elite rate is unexpected, we do appreciate the fact Ivory produced a career-high 75 receiving yards in Week 11 after Yeldon went down, adding to his total-yardage floor and upside.

The Bills have ceded 85.8 rushing yards and 29.8 receiving yards per game to opposing tailbacks. If Ivory can consolidate the change-of-pace receiving work Yeldon handles and continue to grind out a heavy volume of rushes—he's averaged 14.6 carries and handled 55 percent of the team's rushes the past three games—we like his upside as a reasonably priced daily fantasy asset.

We can find Ivory for $4,200 on DraftKings and $5,900 on FanDuel. Such modest pricing and the potential for 20 touches signals we can invest in him for upside and diversification in tournaments.  

With Stefon Diggs Unlikely to Play, Adam Thielen Is Interesting

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Even on a Minnesota Vikings offense that ranks 24^th in passing yards per game, we find breakout, second-year receiver Stefon Diggs ranked seventh in the NFL with 83 receiving yards per game. That's just ahead of the New York Giants' Odell Beckham and the New England Patriots' Rob Gronkowksi, to offer some context.

Only the Pittsburgh Steelers' tandem of Antonio Brown (7.7) and Le'Veon Bell (7.6) are averaging more receptions than Diggs (7.4) this season. Diggs has consumed 25.9 percent of Minnesota's targets on the season, which includes missing a game to injury.

Unfortunately, we won't be getting a side of Diggs on Thanksgiving, as ESPN's Adam Schefter reported the Maryland product is unlikely to play in Thursday's pivotal division showdown in Detroit. 

This is a game featuring two short-yardage passing attacks. The Lions (6.51) are 32^nd in air yards per target and the Vikings (6.58) are 31^st, while the league average is 8.04. Without Diggs' high-percentage and high-volume receiving game on the field, we appreciate cheap shares of wideout Adam Thielen in his place. 

In the game Diggs missed earlier this season against a solid Houston Texans secondary, Thielen established season bests in targets (eight), receptions (seven) and yardage (127). That accounted for 27.6 percent of Sam Bradford's attempts, with an awesome average depth of target of 16.6 yards downfield. For some perspective, Diggs has averaged 8.7 yards per target this season. 

Thielen costs just $4,000 on DraftKings, yet he's a bit steep on FanDuel at $6,200. Given DraftKings' full reward for a reception in its scoring model, shares of Thielen are an interesting way to save and still acquire a strong usage rate.

Assessing the Patriots' Offense with Rob Gronkowski Unlikely to Play

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Part of the trouble in loving Rob Gronkowski is that he will hurt you—or rather, hurt himself. Such is life with the Gronkinator, the physical and proficient tight end for the New England Patriots, who suffered a serious chest injury from a big hit against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 10.

After Gronkowski sat out Week 11's trip to San Francisco, Dianna Russini of ESPN reported he is again unlikely to play against the New York Jets this week.

In season-long leagues, we should plan accordingly and prepare alternatives to Gronk. In daily fantasy, we can pivot to a choice tight end like the Tennessee Titans' Delanie Walker, who has a team-high target share on one of the hottest offenses in the league. The Titans have scored 2.7 points per drive since the start of Week 5, third in the league, thanks to scoring a touchdown on 34.6 percent of drives, also third-best in the league over this span.

As for the Patriots' offense, receiver Julian Edelman netted a season-high 17 targets last week sans the superstar tight end in the game script. With the Jets proving soft in the secondary—they rank 27^th in pass coverage on Pro Football Focus, yielding the 11^th-most yards and eighth-highest completion percentage to receivers this season—Edelman is in a nice spot to return value in DFS lineups this week.

Edelman has 26 more targets than any teammate, and he's netted a team-best 30.2 percent of New England's targets since Tom Brady returned to the lineup in Week 5. That's good for the third-best team market share in the NFL, behind only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Mike Evans (34 percent) and the Atlanta Falcons' Julio Jones (30.7).

It's also worth noting we might want to forgive Martellus Bennett's quiet game in San Francisco this past Sunday, as he still was second on the team with 32 routes run and served his normal allotment of snaps. It's just that the team trended run-heavy early, as LeGarrette Blount controlled first downs, and Edelman dominated the target share with 45 percent of Brady's attempts.

Recency bias can help when we identify it heading into a slate, and it appears the crowd will move on from Bennett even though he's just as likely to resume his valuable target share with Gronkowski out.

Thomas Rawls Is Ready to Roll in Tampa Bay This Week

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A week-winner is a commodity that can shift fortunes with a singularly dominant performance. For this slate, we identify Thomas Rawls of the Seattle Seahawks as a candidate for such an influential outing.

Rawls has been held back in practice this week, per Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times, but "it's nothing that would hold him out Sunday."

With C.J. Prosise set to miss several weeks with a shoulder ailment (like the one Donte Moncrief of the Indianapolis Colts suffered earlier this season), this is Rawls' backfield to dominate.

The matchup is enticing, as the Buccaneers have yielded 96.9 rushing yards per game to backs this season, ninth-most in the league. We also saw Rawls enjoy 30 yards receiving in Week 11. That's notable, considering the Bucs have allowed 51.3 receiving yards per game to backs this season, seventh-most in the league.

Given weeks of dormancy due to injury, Rawls costs $5,700 on DraftKings and $7,000 on FanDuel. With modest pricing, particularly on DraftKings, Rawls—who led the NFL with 5.6 yards per carry last season—is a potential slate-shifting option to consider.

Valuing the Bengals' Offense in the Wake of Major Injuries

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Entering Week 11, A.J. Green had produced 37.8 percent of the Cincinnati Bengals' receiving yardage, the highest share in the entire league. Dynamic tailback Giovani Bernard was ranked 10^th among tailbacks with 42 targets.

After Green suffered a serious hamstring injury in Week 11's devastating loss to the Buffalo Bills, Jim Owczarski of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported it's possible Green returns later this season. That said, the Bengals could be out of contention by the time he's available, and for fantasy purposes, it could be too late.

We do know Green will miss this week, while Bernard is done for the season with an ACL injury. This leaves us searching for the subsequent fallout on the team's offense.

Geoff Hobson of the team's site reported wideout Brandon LaFell—who actually leads the team in routes run this season—missed Wednesday's practice with a knee ailment. LaFell is an intriguing daily fantasy option given he's flashed some big-play prowess at times this season. But overall, he's a lackluster veteran with consistency issues. 

The key beneficiaries, especially with LaFell ailing, are tight end Tyler Eifert, who was third in fantasy points per game among tight ends and the most efficient red-zone receiver in the NFL last year, and rookie wideout Tyler Boyd, a gifted Pitt product with a penchant for versatile deployment. It's a good week to be named Tyler on the Bengals offense, it seems. 

As Pro Football Focus remarked, "Boyd performed admirably in Green’s absence, catching passes against six different coverage defenders—including one touchdown—and earning Dalton a QB rating of 131.8 when throwing at him." 

Eifert is a building block at tight end this week, as an uptick in targets and red-zone appeal hasn't inflated his price just yet. As for Boyd, who we find modestly priced on both main DFS markets, it's encouraging that he could consume a blend of the target void left by Bernard's high-percentage role and Green's big-play workload.   

Sammy Watkins Returns to Practice

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In a rare bit of positive injury news this late into the erosive NFL campaign, Vic Carucci of the Buffalo News reported that superstar wideout Sammy Watkins of the Buffalo Bills could return to action this week if he's deemed healthy enough.

Per a study conducted by the author for ESPN this summer, Watkins adds an awesome vertical element missing from Buffalo's offensive arsenal, as he led all receivers in fantasy points on throws of at least 10 yards downfield in 2015-16. Watkins didn't just lead the league in big-play fantasy production, he dominated, besting the market by 16 percent on hauls beyond 10 yards.

Tyrod Taylor, meanwhile, is a gifted vertical passer. He threw 5.2 attempts per game of at least 10 yards past the line of scrimmage in 2015, the sixth-highest rate of the past three seasons.

We're not sure if Watkins will be active for this tilt with the Jacksonville Jaguars, but it's worth noting he's reasonably priced at $5,000 on DraftKings and $5,700 on FanDuel. If the big-play maven is active, tournament shares are quite intriguing.

Strong Values at Each Position in Daily Fantasy for Week 12

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In this portion of the daily fantasy discussion, let's focus on some key value plays found at each position for Week 12.  

Quarterback 

The New York Giants' Eli Manning faces a Cleveland Browns defense that has yielded a touchdown on 31.1 percent of opposing drives this season, most in the league. For some context, the league's average allowance is 21.1 percent—meaning Cleveland has surrendered a touchdown per drive at a rate 47.4 percent higher than the league average. Manning has produced multiple touchdowns in four of the past five games, so the combination of production and matchup are ideal, considering he's priced at $6,500 on DraftKings and $7,800 on FanDuel.

The Arizona Cardinals' Carson Palmer earns an endorsement for tournaments. He hasn't looked good on film, but he's playing in a potential shootout versus an Atlanta Falcons defense that has allowed 2.53 points per drive. That rate is second-worst in the league behind only the Browns, and the Falcons have also allowed the second-highest touchdown-per-drive rate (29.4 percent).

Running Back

We've already endorsed the Seattle Seahawks' Thomas Rawls as an ideal backfield building block, but we should also include the Miami Dolphins' Jay Ajayi in this tier of tailbacks. Ajayi leads the NFL in rushing yards per game (152) since Week 6 by an astounding 32.4 percent.

Which is to say, Ajayi has been nearly a third better on the ground than the Dallas Cowboys' Ezekiel Elliott over this stretch. Silly stuff, indeed. This week, Ajayi faces a San Francisco 49ers defense ceding 21 percent more rushing yards per game to backs than any other defense. Add this all up and you find an awesome blend of floor and ceiling for the emergent Miami back. 

Sticking with the New York Giants' favorable setup, it's relevant to consider Rashad Jennings has averaged 22 touches per game over the past two and has at least 13 touches in every game this season. The Browns have allowed the second-most rushing yards and most rushing touchdowns to backs this season, thus we dig stacking Manning and Jennings as a unique correlative tandem this week.

Wide Receiver

Seattle's Doug Baldwin is enjoying rare efficiency and could net steady snaps against Tampa's rookie corner Vernon Hargreaves III, who ranks 115th in coverage on Pro Football Focus among 119 rated cornerbacks.

It's also a fine week to secure the services of Jordan Matthews of the Philadelphia Eagles. He's ninth in targets per game over the past month, and he faces a Green Bay Packers secondary that ranks 31st in pass coverage, per PFF. Conversely, the Packers' Davante Adams could feast on Eagles rookie corner Jalen Mills, who ranks last on the aforementioned PFF cornerback index.

Tight End 

The Eagles' Zach Ertz is enjoying a surge in targets and could exploit the Packers' decimated linebacker corps across the middle. The Tennessee Titans' Delanie Walker is an absolute building block as the lead target on a white-hot offense.

It's worth noting Cleveland's Gary Barnidge has caught seven of his 10 touchdowns since the start of last season from quarterback Josh McCown, who is set to start against the Giants this week. The Giants have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to tight ends, supporting this pivot angle.   

Data such as target share, defensive drive rates and vertical passing metrics sourced from an ESPN database.